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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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53 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I know this happens each year. But in my walks and drives around the area it looks like in the last week a lot of the trees have now started to change. That may be due to the sunny dry days we have had. At this time it is clear and 58 here at my house. 

Leaves are changing down my way, seems to be around 2 weeks early for Missouri

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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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On 9/23/2020 at 6:08 AM, Tom said:

It's another comfortable morning with a current temp in the upper 50's (56F).  I could get used to this tranquil and warm weather pattern but we still need some more rain.  Speaking of which, the models are not trending kindly over here for a good soaker and primarily hitting N and E of here.  Full disclosure, this storm early next week totally feels like I'm tracking a hybrid clipper that would blast the GL's with a good synoptic snow along with a vicious LES set up on the back end.

The 00z Euro brings down some of the coldest air of the season with multiple days of lake effect rains next week and highs in the 40's for parts of the GL's.

 

 

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For sure shows some classic LE signatures. Would be an impressive snow maker and reminds me of the late Jan 2019 hybrid storm. Per your latest update tho, this has changed to more of an OHV low? That"d be interesting. How "bombed out" are we talking here bud?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

For sure shows some classic LE signatures. Would be an impressive snow maker and reminds me of the late Jan 2019 hybrid storm. Per your latest update tho, this has changed to more of an OHV low? That"d be interesting. How "bombed out" are we talking here bud?

972mb just east of Lake Superior...let's see if trends continue today...its a complex set up whereby a southern piece forms along the front and phases with the northern stream energy diving S/SE out of NW Canad and into the GL's region...fascinating to say the least...

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NWS Hastings morning disco:

 

One other minor concern will be the potential for frost next
Wednesday night/Thursday AM. At this time...light winds and clear
skies Thursday morning should result in widespread morning
temperatures in the 30s...and will need to monitor this period for
frost potential over the coming days.
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2 hours ago, Tom said:

972mb just east of Lake Superior...let's see if trends continue today...its a complex set up whereby a southern piece forms along the front and phases with the northern stream energy diving S/SE out of NW Canad and into the GL's region...fascinating to say the least...

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Septembo-bomb lol. Likely overdone but might be flirting with record low baro for this early. Would love to see models getting advertised systems more right than wrong this winter.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The 12z Euro is not quite as bad as the 00z Euro in terms of widespread cold.  Looks like it's delayed an extra day and doesn't last quite as long or get quite as cold in these parts.  Still a good cool shot coming though with -10 below normal widespread by 10/2, but better than the widespread -15 below the 00z run was showing. 

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Season Snowfall 23.2"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

 Would love to see models getting advertised systems more right than wrong this winter.

As far as the Euro goes, I know it had some problems with the speed and strength of Sally once it made landfall and was playing catchup to the American models so curious to see if it's still the case come winter. Not sure how it has faired with the other storms this summer.

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88 degrees at Junior High football practice today with no wind. To say I’m sick of this unending summer is an understatement. Even with sprinkler systems, the practice fields are hard as a rock. One of the other coaches is a farmer and said this summer has been much worse than 2012. He wasn’t alive in 1988, but his father told him the history of that year. 

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Gorgeous weather continues here in SEMI for a couple more days b4 the big chill next week, especially late in the week. Along w that comes plenty of rain and wind. Man, it will feel quite raw. October will certainly show its presence. In terms of rainfall, my area could be looking 1-2" or possibly more. Finally, a lot of leaves will start changing colors next week. So far, patchy color continues to show.

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region.  I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind.

 

Models are wavering back and forth for early next week.  The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region.  

00z GEFS...classic Pan Handle/OHV Hook being advertised...is nature "flashing" a clue going forward???  As the northern hemispheric pattern literally snaps into Winter up north and a clash between Summer/Autumn down in the mid latitudes, boy, this is quite the way to cap off a month that had it's extreme's across the board.

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS pretty similar in the precip placement...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

 

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Today looks to be another fantastic late September day.  I know it has been getting a little dry but hey the days are warm the nights are cool who could ask for anything more? The low here at my house was 53 and at this time it is clear and 55.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region.  I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind.

 

Models are wavering back and forth for early next week.  The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region.  

00z GEFS...classic Pan Handle/OHV Hook being advertised...is nature "flashing" a clue going forward???  As the northern hemispheric pattern literally snaps into Winter up north and a clash between Summer/Autumn down in the mid latitudes, boy, this is quite the way to cap off a month that had it's extreme's across the board.

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS pretty similar in the precip placement...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

 

1.gif

1.png

Lack of moisture is sure concerning on this map for my region of the Central Plains.  

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Lack of moisture is sure concerning on this map for my region of the Central Plains.  

This is indeed concerning out in your region of the Plains states because I don't see any real good chances of precip in the extended. 

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region.  I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind.

 

Models are wavering back and forth for early next week.  The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region.  

00z GEFS...classic Pan Handle/OHV Hook being advertised...is nature "flashing" a clue going forward???  As the northern hemispheric pattern literally snaps into Winter up north and a clash between Summer/Autumn down in the mid latitudes, boy, this is quite the way to cap off a month that had it's extreme's across the board.

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS pretty similar in the precip placement...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

 

1.gif

1.png

Very sweet looking maps Tom. And with the SLP forming in just 2-3 days not a fantasy range deal. What are temps like during the rain over our way? Many good things so far this early autumn. Absolutely played a round of golf yesterday and can't get enough of this late summer perfection.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GRR on next week's cold wave..

Quote

One thing to mention for the mid-week time frame is the potential
for waterspouts. The colder air and low pressure aloft coming in
over the relatively warmer lakes is a good setup for waterspouts.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Glorious, beautiful, magnificent day outside, even though I have not been outside yet, from looking at my windows, it looks awesome. Temps have got to be in the 70s. No time to check, but I would not be surprised if they are at 80 or betta.😆

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7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Lack of moisture is sure concerning on this map for my region of the Central Plains.  

Hey, maybe all the moisture will hit Nebraska and Iowa when the cold arrives and we’ll have an epic winter!  We can hope right?

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2 hours ago, BMT said:

Hey, maybe all the moisture will hit Nebraska and Iowa when the cold arrives and we’ll have an epic winter!  We can hope right?

That already happened....2 years ago

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Currently in Marquette. Getting a nice late season severe thunderstorm. Looks just like spring! 63°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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I see the first mention of frost in the grids for late next week. I'll take the cooldown, just wish there was some precip with it.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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