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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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This would put flakes in my backyard Tom.  In 2020, nothing would surprise me.  

Your right about that my friend...2020 has been one of the most memorable years for all of us and the weather is certainly teeing up to that level.

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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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Well my area did receive 0.34" of rain. So while not a lot it is just enough to keep the grass green. It was a mild overnight and IF is stays at 68 or above it will become a tie for the 14th warmest low for any September 2nd. At this time it is cloudy and 69 here at my house.

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GFS has the rain/snow line getting pretty d**n close to the Manitoba/ND border on Tuesday...

 

I know I'm not going to see flakes, but wouldn't that be interesting? I wish Fargo had a dependable climo website like Lincoln so I could see when the earliest historical snowfall was.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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GFS has the rain/snow line getting pretty d**n close to the Manitoba/ND border on Tuesday...

 

I know I'm not going to see flakes, but wouldn't that be interesting? I wish Fargo had a dependable climo website like Lincoln so I could see when the earliest historical snowfall was.

This storm system is looking very interesting and quite the way to open up met Autumn!  The cold coming post storm could be record setting.  Early frosts...or maybe even Freeze's???  Just thinking about that being possible is strange after a record setting warm Summer.

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Wow -  GFS has mid 30s for Eastern Neb next Wednesday morning. Even colder further west with near freezing in Central NE. That would be pretty impressive for so early in the season. No idea what the euro shows. I think wxbell has cracked down on many people sharing one account by tracking ip addresses, so I haven't been able to use it for the past few months. I'll probably get a subscription of my own sometime before winter starts. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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This storm system is looking very interesting and quite the way to open up met Autumn!  The cold coming post storm could be record setting.  Early frosts...or maybe even Freeze's???  Just thinking about that being possible is strange after a record setting warm Summer.

I can remember a very hot and dry summer in 1995.  My wife and I were just married.  We had a killing freeze the 1st week of September and one of the worst blizzards in our history, Jan. of 1996 along with extreme cold.  95/96 was a good winter for us.  If I remember, it was very good for the Dakotas.

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I just checked the weather, the temp has shot up to 88 degrees but feels like 85.  Dew is 42 and humidity is 21%.  Sure seems like our incredibly humid summer is going to be a distant memory.  Funny what happens when irrigation season ends a cold front comes through on Monday.  We are in for quite a roller coaster ride in the next 6 days.  The fun of living on the Central Great Plains.

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What a difference between the Euro and GFS.  GFS cold bias showing up already.  Expect it to be delayed as usual.  

The handling of the tanking -EPO bias on the Euro is also showing up....

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A very fascinating wx pattern is setting up for the middle of next week as we continue to have quite the battle among the various models.  Is this going to be our 1st Autumn storm system to track?  Yesterday, there was a massive spread in temps between the GFS/Euro.  Last night, they both came in a bit closer to one another as the Euro cooled and GFS warmed.  I'm pretty sure we'll see more adjustments in the coming days.  Needless to say, this storm reminds me vividly of what we saw back in October when last years LRC was developing.  Remember how many times we saw these strong frontal boundaries knife down the leeward side of the Rockies???  It's pretty neat to see this sorta pattern happening in early September.

 

Nevertheless, the 00z Euro keeps the snow in the forecast for the Rockies and now the recent 06z GFS run does also.  A highly amplified pattern is poised to setup up shop across the central Plains/MW causing a strong signal for our seasons 1st frontogenesis pattern.

 

gfs_asnow_wus_24.png

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The JMA weeklies continue to illustrate a pattern conducive for an amplified pattern for the duration of this month.  In fact, if it's Week 3-4 forecast verifies, you can betcha we'll see some vigorous troughs if we see strong re-curving Typhoons later in the month.

 

Week 2 temp/precip...

 

Y202009.D0212_gl2.png

 

 

 

Y202009.D0212_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...this is a rather strong signal this far out to see an uptic in W PAC activity.  Why is this important???  It could very well have implications for all of us down the road as we open up October.  500mb pattern keeps those ridges off both the west coast and east coast....

 

Y202009.D0212_gl0.png

 

 

Temps look rather seasonal....

 

Y202009.D0212_gl2.png

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12z GFS coming in a lot colder and wintry for the CO Rockies Front Range...starting to see some similarities with the Euro...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

Would this constitutue as a Blue Norther???  Temps in the TX Panhandle near 100F and within 24-36 hours crashing down into the 40's!

 

sfct.us_c.png

 

sfct.us_c.png

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I am coaching 7th and 8th grade football games on Tuesday as our Middle School teams play at Kearney Catholic.  Looks cold (for the time of year) for 5 and 6:30 PM games.  I better have the sweat pants, hoodie, and jacket.  Gloves and stocking cap?  We'll see.  

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UK agrees with the GFS

 

More than the amounts, it's great to see the potential for a widespread soaker across the region.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Interesting write up from GRR:

 

ur next upstream Pacific system will force the system that is
moving into today out of the area and bring shortwave ridging
later Saturday into Sunday. That is behind that warm front related
shortwave that comes through early to midday Saturday. This brings
in warmer air for Saturday and even more so Sunday.

-- Could get hot early to middle of next week --

So, here is were the bigger forecast glitch is. We now have two,
count them, two western Pacific typhoons. The first is Maysak,
that not to far behind that is Haishen. Both of these storms
recurved and head north up the coast of eastern China, Korea and
Russia. That has a rossby wave impact on the down stream systems.
It causes amplification of those systems. It is for that reason
the ECMWF slowed down our cooling. The GFS is catching on some
with the latest model run.

The more amplified pattern over the Pacific results in a more
amplified pattern over North America. That means the system that
was suppose to dig into the Great Lakes now digs into the western
Mountains instead. That in turn allows the Azores high to expand
westward, which in turn keeps us warm until that upper trough
slowly makes it far enough east to reach the Great Lakes. Remember
both typhoons have to finish recurving for it to get cold here.
That may delay the cold weather until the following weekend.

Meanwhile, with the upper high building back toward the Great
Lakes we may have highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday into
Thursday. By the way it is not unusual to us get hot weather the
first week or so of September. In fact the average high
temperature for the first week of September in GRR from 2011 to
2019 is 80 degrees. Which is about 3 degrees above normal. Prior
to that, from 2007 to 2010, it was cool the fist week of
September with our mean high only being 75 degrees.

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Since the POTENTIAL for Frosts are showing up for parts of the Sub next week, here's a map showing the median dates for the first 32F Freeze and Frost.

 

 

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Splendid day outside w a dry CF coming today. Maybe a scattered shower here and there, but nothing extreme. Windy conditions attm w gusts as high as 25mph. Some cumulus clouds mixing along w that deep, blue skies. Dew is not a factor today. What is a factor is the warmth. Currently a toasty 87F. Somebody could hit 90F.

 

Btw: average high has dipped into the 70s now. Also, next potential (which is likely) named storm will be "Paulette." I think probability chances stand high, as peak season has not even arrived. I believed it peaks during Sept 10th timeframe. In conclusion, there is also a possibility that we might run outta names and head straight into the "Greek" Alphabet.

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12z Euro coming in colder for the Plains/MW for Wed & Thu morning lows....30's on the table for a lot of the central members....daytime highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark for parts of NE on Tue/Wed, however, the official high will be higher bc the midnight temp will be higher. 

 

Edit: The snow amounts in CO are staying consistent!

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The Euro is still different, keeping the main energy cut off well west of our region.  The rain amounts end up a little different, but the same general look is there.

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro coming in colder for the Plains/MW for Wed & Thu morning lows....30's on the table for a lot of the central members....daytime highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark for parts of NE on Tue/Wed, however, the official high will be higher bc the midnight temp will be higher. 

 

Edit: The snow amounts in CO are staying consistent!

 

I want to drive to Colorado to witness this early fall storm!  Wow, that'd be cool.  

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Season Snowfall 23.2"

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I want to drive to Colorado to witness this early fall storm!  Wow, that'd be cool.  

You and me Both!  Instead of driving, I will be FLYING over this area on Wednesday morning heading back to Chicago.  Might be a bit of a bumpy ride over the mountains.

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Euro is a little disappointing.  The weekend system shifted further north and isn't as robust.  I'd really like to cash in this weekend and then get the cooler temps with a couple days of rain behind it to really soak in.  My new sod has taken a beating this summer and is really struggling to grow at all.  I fertilized a few weeks ago, but it hasn't rained and it's too expensive to continuously water the yard.  So I need mother nature to do her part here. 

 

 

The Euro is still different, keeping the main energy cut off well west of our region.  The rain amounts end up a little different, but the same general look is there.

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

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Season Snowfall 23.2"

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It's interesting to see the Euro Weeklies flip much colder for the end of the month and siding with the BSR.  Check out the complete opposite 500mb pattern to close out month from last Monday's run.  This makes more sense until I see changes in the N PAC.

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It's interesting to see the Euro Weeklies flip much colder for the end of the month and siding with the BSR. Check out the complete opposite 500mb pattern to close out month from last Monday's run. This makes more sense until I see changes in the N PAC.

Wow, that was a curveball.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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12z GFS coming in a lot colder and wintry for the CO Rockies Front Range...starting to see some similarities with the Euro...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

Would this constitutue as a Blue Norther??? Temps in the TX Panhandle near 100F and within 24-36 hours crashing down into the 40's!

 

sfct.us_c.png

 

sfct.us_c.png

I'd say yes. If not, see ya in November for the real one. Lol.

 

If snow grazes the OK panhandle, it would have to obliterate a record.

 

This is like 1911 though. The setup is out of the park for long length colder than average weather with legs.

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I had a very busy evening so I'm finally enjoying some time out on the deck and grilling some chicken tenders and potatoes on the Weber. Very late supper! But that's ok. This weather makes it worth it. Down to 59 with clear and calm conditions. I love watching the seasonal transitions.

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Evening models are shifting the Saturday night storms up into MN/WI, and far ne IA.

 

Even though we don't get much this weekend, the GFS still has widespread 2-4" across the entire region through next week.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The latest drought monitor across the MW has expanded...but if the latest model trends stay put, looks like many of us will put a big dent into that over the next 10 days.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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00z Euro came in a touch colder throughout the Great Plains and into the MW/Upper MW for the middle of next week....Frosty mornings still looking quite possible!  Check out the DP's being predicted by the Euro which will provide that CRISP Canadian Feel.

 

Some of the models have the snowfall creeping into KS!

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I'm starting to see some LR signals that the coldest air of the Autumn season is yet to come for our eastern members by the middle of the month.  Using the BSR as guidance, among other LR tools, the pattern will re-amplify and send a shot of some Autumnal chill down through the GL's/MW during the week of the 14th.

 

Remember this 1st Bearing Sea storm????  Interestingly, this is just the beginning of a parade of storms in this part of the world which should translate into a volatile and active eastern half of the nation mid and late month.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_1.png

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