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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Of course I see the storms that are developing are heading straight for my backyard while I'm out of town.

@FAR_Weather nice night up here! Pretty comfy and nice breeze.

Warmest night we've had in a while, warmest night we'll have for a while. Oddly refreshing to be outside in shorts at 11pm.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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If the storms in sw MN are the main show, that is farther sw than most models had them popping.

 

It appears those initial cells were not the main show.  Stronger clusters are firing farther northeast.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@Hawkeye. How do you like the COD radar web app. I’m not very fond of it. I liked how it was.

 

The new version is like their satellite page.  I probably prefer the way it was, but this is ok.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I like RadarScope the best out of any radar. COD works well too though. Especially if I’m on my laptop. Storms are really getting their act together. Certainly looks like they’ll hit CR and IC with at least one band. Hopefully that happens

RadarScope is great but I wish I could see the county boundaries a little better. I don’t have the subscription version though. I just really like the colors and accuracy of COD.

 

Edit: RadarScope’s velocity images seem much better though.

 

 

Since I live near two county lines I go more by those lines than towns and roads when not zoomed in much.

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Unfortunately, the storms did not track farther sw.  They are training just barely northeast of Cedar Rapids.  The Manchester area, west of Dubuque, has received over 5 inches of rain.  The storms are trying to sink/build south a bit, but I'm just now getting into a bit of rain.  The tail end of the line should get us.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Unfortunately, the storms did not track farther sw. They are training just barely northeast of Cedar Rapids. The Manchester area, west of Dubuque, has received over 5 inches of rain. The storms are trying to sink/build south a bit, but I'm just now getting into a bit of rain. The tail end of the line should get us.

You should easily get the tail end it appears. I might too if it keeps going and not weaken to much.

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The latest Euro Seasonal came out today and the maps speak for itself as the model has trended a lot colder for the central CONUS.  I posted maps before on the placement of the ridge in the NE PAC, or lack thereof, from 2 runs ago and now its showing up as a monster NE PAC ridge.  It has also trended wetter.  Let's not forget about the Bearing Sea trough as well.  Interesting run.

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Today's high in Denver is 98.

 

 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. The higher elevations and Front
Range could see 6 to 12 inches with winds gusting as high as 40
mph. The lower elevations of the metro area and I-25 corridor
could see accumulations of 3 to 6 inches by late Tuesday.

* WHERE...The Medicine Bow Range, Rocky Mountain National Park,
Front Range, along and west of I-25 and Denver Metro.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Accumulating snow will impact area
vegetation causing damage to trees and possible power outages.
Roads could be slippery and slushy for the Tuesday evening
commute, especially for areas west of I-25. Overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday will drop below
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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A tightening pressure gradient is resulting in rapidly increasing

south wind gusts over the nearshore and open waters of Lake

Michigan. Winds are increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35

knots.

 

 

Snowstorm fanatic's dream pattern aka 07-08 & 13-14. Need this to come back in Jan

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Saw someone on a different board point out Laramie...

 

Just poking through the daily summaries in Laramie, the record lows look to be in the upper 20s or so this time of year. THREE BELOW ZERO is forecasted there Tuesday night.

 

 

Today

Areas of smoke. Sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Labor Day
Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Monday Night
Rain before midnight, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 28. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around -3.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 36.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 13.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Saw someone on a different board point out Laramie...

 

Just poking through the daily summaries in Laramie, the record lows look to be in the upper 20s or so this time of year. THREE BELOW ZERO is forecasted there Tuesday night.

That’s brutal! Weather whiplash at its finest. That just gave me the chillzzzz.

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We will make a run at 100 today. NWS fearful of potential fire growth with extremely low relative humidity this afternoon. It will feel like the desert here with rh values of 10-20% and a strong south wind. As dry as things already are, any fire could quickly get out of control. What a difference from the floods of 2019.

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That’s brutal! Weather whiplash at its finest. That just gave me the chillzzzz.

Some of these crazy CF scenarios hit last autumn Iirc. Are we just witnessing the same (old) pattern prior to a new LRC developing? I think so tbh. Those are some wild wild wx flips on deck. Not sure how many caught news on this, but there were several anomalous wx events on the other side of the globe during this summer. I know China had some unusual snowfalls. Even Beijing saw wet flakes in July. That'd be like a Midwest city seeing them. Very rare stuff due to Solar Minimum imho
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Saw someone on a different board point out Laramie...

 

Just poking through the daily summaries in Laramie, the record lows look to be in the upper 20s or so this time of year. THREE BELOW ZERO is forecasted there Tuesday night.

April '91 in NMI is my personal wildest swing. Saturday was spent riding my bike in shorts under sunny and 85F. By Tuesday evening was riding my snowmobile around my place on a solid 5" snowpack from a storm the night before. That was my first year up north and I'd never witnessed such extremes. I was totally stoked!
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some of these crazy CF scenarios hit last autumn Iirc. Are we just witnessing the same (old) pattern prior to a new LRC developing? I think so tbh. Those are some wild wild wx flips on deck. Not sure how many caught news on this, but there were several anomalous wx events on the other side of the globe during this summer. I know China had some unusual snowfalls. Even Beijing saw wet flakes in July. That'd be like a Midwest city seeing them. Very rare stuff due to Solar Minimum imho

Yup, they started in October and this pattern is the same “Old” LRC Pattern. I’lm curious to see what this years pattern looks like. Only a few more weeks to go!

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Talk about extremes:

 

-There is a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday in the Denver Metro Area

-Meanwhile, 98F is the projected high for today

-Rain will be changing to snow on Tuesday with a high of 36 along w significant snow accumulations

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Been a while since I've seen an AFD this long for my area.

 

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Northwest winds are picking up in intensity across the northern
Devils Lake Basin, with 39 mph gusts being reported at Langdon and
37 mph at both Cavalier and Cando. These higher winds will
continue working southeastward through the morning hours and
could gust as high as 50 mph.

UPDATE Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

There are sporadic cloud layers across the FA early this morning,
so the day will start out partly cloudy, and probably remain that
way through the day. Did bump up sky amounts a little more through
the morning, otherwise no other changes needed at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

The main impacts in the short term will be the gusty winds
expected today through the early evening, and the start of the
cool down into the long term.

Currently there are split surface lows, one over southwest
Manitoba and the other over central South Dakota. The northern low
is expected to track east of Winnipeg by 15Z, turning winds to the
west-northwest from the Red River Valley westward. By noon the low
should push into southwest Ontario, with the cold front and west-
northwest winds pushing through the rest of the FA. Overall model
guidance looks a tad lower on wind speeds today, so rather than
having a wind advisory for the entire FA, there will be a few
portions that look to be below criteria (mainly the far south and
southeast FA). Positives for the gusty winds today are
unidirectional winds from the surface up to about 700mb, strong
cold advection, and BUFKIT soundings showing the mixing potential
to around 750mb. The few negatives are the winds are more
northwest (so no true Valley component) and the pressure rises are
not that strong. So will mention wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph with
gusts to 50 mph in the wind advisory area, and will have to
monitor other areas to see if any adjustments are needed. The
eastward track of the surface low may be just enough to keep out
the far southern FA and the wooded areas of our eastern FA.
Temperatures will peak in the late morning or early afternoon,
then remain steady or begin a slow fall.

The really strong wind gusts will begin to taper off in the
evening, but sustained winds should hold in the 15 to 25 mph
range. This will keep overnight lows still relatively mild. Monday
highs should be about 20 degrees cooler than today, and north-
northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph will keep them feeling even
cooler. There is a fair amount of model spread on the
precipitation potential with the Monday system, with some
solutions showing precipitation over the southern FA and some
showing it further south. For now will maintain some chances and
see what later runs have in store.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Primary impacts looking ahead to the long term forecast period will
be the unseasonably cool temperatures across the entirety of the
Plains. Areas of patchy frost will be possible with the potential
for a widespread frost/freeze event overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning.

Scattered post frontal showers should be clearing out of the
southern quarter of the CWA by the time Monday evening rolls around.
Ensemble guidance is in agreement with surface high pressure
aggressively building into the area on the heels of the cold front
progressing across much of the central Plains. Large scale
subsidence associated with the building high pressure will start to
clear out clouds across northwestern areas of the CWA through the
overnight hours. This increasing clearing will aid in the
development of patchy frost conditions in some areas, primarily
across the northern extent of the CWA moving into Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures will range from the low 30s in NW North Dakota to
the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

More widespread clearing is expected throughout the day on Tuesday
and high temperatures are once again expected to sit in the low 50s
for much of the region. The most impactful weather period continues
to be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Large scale
subsidence and clearing coupled with weakening surface winds and a
relatively stable air mass will see low temperatures right around 32
F, just enough to warrant freezing conditions, for most of the
forecast area. High temperatures in the low 60s for most on
Wednesday will see another cooler overnight period with some
potential for patchy frost yet again in some areas. Building surface
high pressure should begin to initiate a wind shift with a more
southerly component which will bring some much needed WAA into the
area. Clear and calm weather pattern sets in across the area for the
rest of the work week. High temperatures should rebound into the
upper 60s to low 70s across the forecast area moving into the
weekend. Some ensemble guidance is hinting at a cold front passing
through the area on Saturday evening which could bring slightly
cooler temperatures to Sunday and kick up some precipitation,
however; confidence is very low at this time.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Attm, it is a pleasant 71F under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Lotta wet weather coming during the next several days. Should impress the "Drought Monitor."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Barometer is down to 1006mb here, winds are up to 35mph out of the NW. Summer is over.

 

I'm glad the front passed in the morning, I didn't want the 90 degree temps that would have happened with an evening fropa. Sioux City forecasted into the mid-90s today.

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Barometer is down to 1006mb here, winds are up to 35mph out of the NW. Summer is over.

 

I'm glad the front passed in the morning, I didn't want the 90 degree temps that would have happened with an evening fropa. Sioux City forecasted into the mid-90s today.

Can't wait to see if your KFAR snow total beats your KTOL from last winter. Shouldn't be a heavy lift but not familiar with ND clink tbh. Thinking your season will be way longer than Ohio tho. Beck, even my total almost doubled Toledo's
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Can't wait to see if your KFAR snow total beats your KTOL from last winter. Shouldn't be a heavy lift but not familiar with ND clink tbh. Thinking your season will be way longer than Ohio tho. Beck, even my total almost doubled Toledo's

Reasonable accumulation season here is October-April. Fargo has received early October blizzards the past 2 straight years. Fargo averages 50.1" annually, however that was heavily inflated after a snowy 2001-2010 period. The 1971-2000 average was 46.3".
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Temps actually plateaued after the front passed. It quit rising, but it was also very slow to fall. I now have a stratus deck which I will likely have until Tuesday, and that will moderate temps until then. Persistent NW wind which will usher in the CAA. 72.5*F.

 

Omaha currently bakin' at 95*F. Once again, glad I got the front in the morning.

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Looks like we “only” made it to 93 today. First front has come through and turned winds out of the northeast to 15 mph. We’ve fallen to 88 degrees right before 5 pm. Going to be an exciting weather week around here. Need rain desperately.

"Only" made it to 95 here today, after several days of it looking like we would be making a run into the 100's today. The rainfall deficit continues to deepen closer to 12" on the year, however this next week offers us a nice respite with some really solid chances of moderate to heavy rainfall.

 

Either way, I will welcome the cooler and rainy weather, and I have some hope now that we will put a bit of a dent in that rainfall deficit by the end of the week. 

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