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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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We will have to see how much warmer it gets today. At this time the current temperature and high so far today is 58. The record coldest maximum for today is 59 set in 1924 and 1898. In 2nd place is 60 in 1901 and in 3rd place is 61 in 1943. At this time Grand Rapids is on tract for one of the coldest highs of any September 9th in recorded history.
 

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Sounds like KFAR reached 30*F last night. The cold spot was Hannaford, which reached 25.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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The rain is pretty much done here until tomorrow morning.  My total since Sunday is now about 3.20".

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The low of 30 today tied a 122 year old record.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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I have picked up an additional half inch of rain in my backyard since last night... sitting at a storm total so far of 1.50” of much needed rainfall.
 

Not too shabby at all, with another half inch to one inch of rain in the forecast between now and Friday.

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15 hours ago, Tom said:

Can you sign in from multiple devices?  That's the problem I'm having.  Try signing out and then back in.  See if it produces an error that your Caps Lock is on.

I haven’t had problems signing in from three different (Apple & Android) devices as long as I used my screen name you see on here. Hoping you can get that issue solved.

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Hey guys, I'm back in the saddle after a LONG day yesterday traveling, cleaning, shopping, cooking, going through a month's worth of mail that was on hold, phone calls, etc....any who, I'm still dealing with this login issue and unable to log in from other devices.  I know iFred is hard at work trying to help rectify this.

 

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I wanted to tell you guys what a great experience I had flying for the first time during this COVID pandemic.  First off, I felt very safe and props to American Airlines for making everyone feel comfortable.  Every person had to be masked up otherwise they wouldn't allow you on the plane.  I asked for a seat up grade and they granted me it by moving my seat up towards the front of the plane.  I had a whole isle to myself (winning) and enjoyed a perfect window seat in front of the wing and jet engine on a 737. 

 

It was a picture perfect morning for takeoff with calm winds and 100% clear skies.  Initially, I thought it would be a bumpy ride through AZ/NM but it was smooth sailing until we got to CO when the captain turned on the seat belt lights, esp over Denver and the front range.  It got a bit turbulent for about 10-15 minutes.  We continued our flight through NE CO into C NE (right over North Platte) then right over Sioux Falls, then due east right across IA and we flew right between DSM and Waterloo.  It was a memorable journey flying over these same states bc it was just early Aug I drove through these same areas!  It was a neat experience knowing our flight literally took the same path but in reverse (AZ to Chicago) and 39,000 ft in the air.  Oh ya, every seat now on a newer AA plane has a TV which has all sorts of media, 3D maps, movies, TV shows, entertainment..you name it that is all for FREE.  The airline is really upgrading the flight experience from what I notice.  Throughout the flight, as we climbed towards cruising altitude, I was paying attn to the Flight Status and our cruising speed was about 580 mph, we climbed up to 39,000 ft (way above the wx), the coldest temp we reached was an incredible -71F!  All in all, a wonderful experience on a relatively quick flight (3 hours) that was about 75% full.

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When I stepped outside the terminal yesterday, I instantly felt the humidity and the cool and refreshing air.  Guys, you have no idea what a dramatic feeling that was when you've been living in the desert for 6 months this past year.  I was yearning for this while baking in the 115F heat!  Glad to be back in the Midwest enjoying these cool, cloudy days. 

This morning, its a cool 56F under cloudy skies and a N wind.  It appears N IL got soaked by a solid 2-4" of rain area wide over the past couple days with more in store later on Saturday.  Looks like most of us will have the drought conditions alleviated!

 

 

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I've analyzed a lot of data this morning and the models are at it again trying to figure out the pattern in the N PAC.  After a brief period of erratic behavior in the EPO forecast during the medium range, the models are trending back towards a neutral or - EPO in the medium/long range.  A nice and warmer week is shaping up the following week but it prob won't last as the pattern goes back towards a west coast ridge and implies that we will see a trough across our Sub.  A high lat blocking pattern is also taking shape and looks like it has legs.

 

Today's JMA weeklies are rather intriguing as we see a glimpse into the first full week of October.

 

Week 2...temps look cool for our southern members and parts of the MW...

Y202009.D0912_gl2.png

 

 

Week 3-4...things get interesting as the LRC takes shape and the BSR pattern takes over???   The 500mb it is advertising would translate to colder temps than what the model is showing.  Needless to say, we are seeing a lot of blocking in the key locations across the Northern Hemisphere.

 

Y202009.D0912_gl2.png

4.png

2.png

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Yesterdays official high of 60 at Grand Rapids was the 2nd coldest maximum of any September 9th in Grand Rapids recorded history. I recorded 0.02" of rain yesterday. At this time it is cloudy and 53 here

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I wanted to tell you guys what a great experience I had flying for the first time during this COVID pandemic.  First off, I felt very safe and props to American Airlines for making everyone feel comfortable.  Every person had to be masked up otherwise they wouldn't allow you on the plane.  I asked for a seat up grade and they granted me it by moving my seat up towards the front of the plane.  I had a whole isle to myself (winning) and enjoyed a perfect window seat in front of the wing and jet engine on a 737. 

 

It was a picture perfect morning for takeoff with calm winds and 100% clear skies.  Initially, I thought it would be a bumpy ride through AZ/NM but it was smooth sailing until we got to CO when the captain turned on the seat belt lights, esp over Denver and the front range.  It got a bit turbulent for about 10-15 minutes.  We continued our flight through NE CO into C NE (right over North Platte) then right over Sioux Falls, then due east right across IA and we flew right between DSM and Waterloo.  It was a memorable journey flying over these same states bc it was just early Aug I drove through these same areas!  It was a neat experience knowing our flight literally took the same path but in reverse (AZ to Chicago) and 39,000 ft in the air.  Oh ya, every seat now on a newer AA plane has a TV which has all sorts of media, 3D maps, movies, TV shows, entertainment..you name it that is all for FREE.  The airline is really upgrading the flight experience from what I notice.  Throughout the flight, as we climbed towards cruising altitude, I was paying attn to the Flight Status and our cruising speed was about 580 mph, we climbed up to 39,000 ft (way above the wx), the coldest temp we reached was an incredible -71F!  All in all, a wonderful experience on a relatively quick flight (3 hours) that was about 75% full.

Ya it's amazing how frigid it is not that far above us! Think of the wind chills the plane is experiencing!! Lol

 

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

I'm liking that rain chances are looking better and heavier the next few days than they had earlier this week. Widespread light to moderate rain for today.

Can't wait until that happens and the forecast looks like this..

😉

 

20140116 KBEH 7-day.jpg

Edited by jaster220
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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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@ Major Tom

Welcome back friend! Looking forward to reading your LR posts as we head into the new LRC. Tis the season bud!

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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@ iFred

Thanks for all your work with this updated format. Question for you. There was an option to toggle my signature "off" in the prior format and I'm not finding it now. Also, is there a setting whereby the actual time of member's posts could be shown instead of "13 hours ago" format? My brain gets tired of doing math, lol. Those values can be off as well if you pick up where you left off reading a thread and forget/don't hit the refresh button.

Just a couple foods for thought. Otherwise, keep up the nice job here!

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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Has anyone on here flipped on the furnace yet this year??  I am contemplating to do so but I'm fighting hard not to!  LOL  Indoor temp is 67F. so it isn't too chilly but my blood is thin and I got my long socks, slippers, jogger pants and hoodie on!  I enjoyed my hot cup of coffee earlier today and hot tea a couple hours later.

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Has anyone on here flipped on the furnace yet this year??  I am contemplating to do so but I'm fighting hard not to!  LOL  Indoor temp is 67F. so it isn't too chilly but my blood is thin and I got my long socks, slippers, jogger pants and hoodie on!  I enjoyed my hot cup of coffee earlier today and hot tea a couple hours later.

No.  Our house dropped to 59 degrees on Wednesday morning.  It stayed about 61-62 on Wednesday.  This morning it was 58.  Temp is supposed to rise some today and tomorrow.  We really don't ever turn it on before October 1st.  There were a few years when our kids were really small that we broke down and turned it on in later September.  Now with just my wife and 15 year old son, we can put on more blankets and wear sweatshirts.  My daughter is off at college.  She called and asked if she should turn it on in her rental house as her 3 roommates were cold.  They are trying to save money so they never turned it on.

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

No.  Our house dropped to 59 degrees on Wednesday morning.  It stayed about 61-62 on Wednesday.  This morning it was 58.  Temp is supposed to rise some today and tomorrow.  We really don't ever turn it on before October 1st.  There were a few years when our kids were really small that we broke down and turned it on in later September.  Now with just my wife and 15 year old son, we can put on more blankets and wear sweatshirts.  My daughter is off at college.  She called and asked if she should turn it on in her rental house as her 3 roommates were cold.  They are trying to save money so they never turned it on.

Wow, you guys are troopers!  I think I'd have to turn it on if it got down that low.  If I had a fireplace I'd be using that to warm the house up instead.  Thanks for sharing your input.

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57 minutes ago, Tom said:

Has anyone on here flipped on the furnace yet this year??  I am contemplating to do so but I'm fighting hard not to!  LOL  Indoor temp is 67F. so it isn't too chilly but my blood is thin and I got my long socks, slippers, jogger pants and hoodie on!  I enjoyed my hot cup of coffee earlier today and hot tea a couple hours later.

Yup! I did on Tuesday Haha. It was 64 inside a d I knew it wasn't gonna get any better judging by the forecast.

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52 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, you guys are troopers!  I think I'd have to turn it on if it got down that low.  If I had a fireplace I'd be using that to warm the house up instead.  Thanks for sharing your input.

My wife did some baking last night which warmed the kitchen and dining room.  Plus we both teach so we are gone all day then after school I coach Junior High football and my son plays varsity football so aren't all home until 6:30 PM.  If we would have been home all day we may have been inclined to turn it on.

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52 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, you guys are troopers!  I think I'd have to turn it on if it got down that low.  If I had a fireplace I'd be using that to warm the house up instead.  Thanks for sharing your input.

I will use my portable space heaters just for a couple hours. Takes the morning chill off then its fine all day. Comfy 70F on the wall thermos attm

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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Today's wave of rain is overperforming across the area.  I'm over a half inch now.  Well over an inch has fallen in southeast Iowa.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Has anyone on here flipped on the furnace yet this year??  I am contemplating to do so but I'm fighting hard not to!  LOL  Indoor temp is 67F. so it isn't too chilly but my blood is thin and I got my long socks, slippers, jogger pants and hoodie on!  I enjoyed my hot cup of coffee earlier today and hot tea a couple hours later.

I opened the oven door temporarily a time or two, but I’m ready to turn on the furnace. My blood almost always runs thin so I can take warm weather better than cold. Seems I’m cold 🥶 sooner than most people.

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I was catching up on Terry Swail’s wx blog today and on September 3 he mentioned how vastly different the temperature outlooks were between the Euro and GFS for this week. Well the GFS was the big winner.
 

The September 2 post by Steve Gottschalk was interesting to me as well, since it was about a very damaging huge hailstorm that ravaged my community back in September 1 of 1897. It’s the first time I heard about that storm.

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Looks like Paulette and Rene are cruising in the Atlantic. As for now, it looks like they will not bother anyone. Four more names to go and then, we are off for the "Greek Alphabet."

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Hey guys, I'm back in the saddle after a LONG day yesterday traveling, cleaning, shopping, cooking, going through a month's worth of mail that was on hold, phone calls, etc....any who, I'm still dealing with this login issue and unable to log in from other devices.  I know iFred is hard at work trying to help rectify this.

 

I have no issues at all

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40 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like Paulette and Rene are cruising in the Atlantic. As for now, it looks like they will not bother anyone. Four more names to go and then, we are off for the "Greek Alphabet."

Rene will have something to say about the next wave.  The Euro has the next wave getting pulled up into Rene's weakness and going out to sea.  The GFS has the next wave passing westward, to the south of Rene, on its way to becoming a strong hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Watching the latest Euro Weeklies come in and they have gone even colder for October for practically everyone on here.  "Central CONUS Trough" is the theme this run...monster NE PAC Ridge/Western NAMER Ridge alongside a strong signal for an EC Ridge/Eastern Canada Ridge from late Sep through Oct 25th.  The Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough never goes away the entire run.  Man, that was a wild run which would literally lock in a strong signal for a cold and wet October for the majority of our Sub.  Possible 1st snow flakes for the northern members and then central members later in the month as a potent shot of cold comes down out of Canada.  I must say, this pattern fits the BSR and the N PAC pattern in the LR.

1.png

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Grand Rapids now has had 3 days in a row of highs only in the low 60's. The highs on Wednesday were the 2nd coldest maximums for the day at Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Holland and at Lansing it was the coldest maximum since 1943. 

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Rene will have something to say about the next wave.  The Euro has the next wave getting pulled up into Rene's weakness and going out to sea.  The GFS has the next wave passing westward, to the south of Rene, on its way to becoming a strong hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.

Something tells me it will get very active again, after a brief hiatus in the Atlantic.

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Another day of rain has boosted my total this week to 3.82".  We have a shot at 5" before the system clears out Saturday.  Every bit of this rain is soaking in, too.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I was going out to check and empty my rain gauges, but some very light rain was falling so will wait some more. I think I got 0.95” today bringing my weekly total to right around 3.30”. Hoping for 5” total before nice weather returns on Sunday.

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The 00z NAM and 3k NAM show another 1-2+" falling across eastern Iowa through Saturday morning.  A good chunk of that falls from mid morning through afternoon Friday, so we'll see what it looks like in the morning.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z NAM and 3k NAM show another 1-2+" falling across eastern Iowa through Saturday morning.  A good chunk of that falls from mid morning through afternoon Friday, so we'll see what it looks like in the morning.

Yeah I just got done checking the models and the NAMs and WRFs are spitting out some crazy rainfall totals in se. and e. Iowa in the next 2 days. Can’t imagine it will be that much, I but will be interesting to see how this shakes out!

AF5AB38A-693A-49E1-AB27-08CD59ED9F73.png

1D201A42-76B7-40A7-BAFD-B3B8A70A7A4C.png

6E2CF925-EBB8-467A-9B56-FAF8DCB2A7F8.png

A3BE3663-C4CA-44DC-B57E-754B82E24239.png

C5B1BC56-0B3B-4DC2-BB9F-A8C1BF84FEE7.png

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7 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yeah I just got done checking the models and the NAMs and WRFs are spitting out some crazy rainfall totals in se. and e. Iowa in the next 2 days. Can’t imagine it will be that much, I but will be interesting to see how this shakes out!

Those are all 12z runs, which include all the rain that fell today.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Those are all 12z runs, which include all the rain that fell today.

Oops,my bad. Thought I had tapped the latest runs, but it maybe didn’t refresh properly. Still a lot of water.

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19 years ago tonight I was a month into being a sophomore in high school and in a different universe. 

In less than 12 hours, the whole world changed again for me and it never changed back.

I never forgot. There were folks who would have never imagined what they were going to face. 

It was the last night I went to sleep understanding that the American dream and also those great ideals I read about was still true and visible and that I could still have them if I worked my butt off and I could do it. Knew I could.

The last day I had any innocence at all.....

The next day, in less than 10 hours. The world changed forever. 

Never forget. Never ever.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Watching the latest Euro Weeklies come in and they have gone even colder for October for practically everyone on here.  "Central CONUS Trough" is the theme this run...monster NE PAC Ridge/Western NAMER Ridge alongside a strong signal for an EC Ridge/Eastern Canada Ridge from late Sep through Oct 25th.  The Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough never goes away the entire run.  Man, that was a wild run which would literally lock in a strong signal for a cold and wet October for the majority of our Sub.  Possible 1st snow flakes for the northern members and then central members later in the month as a potent shot of cold comes down out of Canada.  I must say, this pattern fits the BSR and the N PAC pattern in the LR.

1.png

Lock it in brother. Hard to deny the signals right now. Going full tilt for winter after end of month or going hit-break-hit are going to be our choices. My deal is that if we don't get a warmup in a central winter month like we all have been so used to, people aren't going to be ready for that.

In the late 70s and one of the 80s years here, there were extended periods of over 30 days of snow-covered ground and hard cold here, but no one is ready for real winter.

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