SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 What are your early analogs for the coming autumnal and winter seasons? Do tell! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 1933 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 1933 Tigerwoodlibido's favorite! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 Tigerwoodlibido's favorite! December 1933 was like December 2015 on steroids. Fun month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 December 1933 was like December 2015 on steroids. Fun month. 17.54" of rain at Salem. Pretty impressive. At SLE it was 2" wetter than 2015 and 2-3F warmer. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 For me would have to be La Niña, descending westerly shear, following warm season dateline subsidence w/ dominant standing wave in IO. Excluding well-established cold phase yrs until midwinter at the earliest. Not yet sure which years best fit this tendency. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 For me would have to be La Niña, descending westerly shear, following warm season dateline subsidence w/ dominant standing wave in IO. Excluding well-established cold phase yrs until midwinter at the earliest. Not yet sure which years best fit this tendency. Throw me a bone dogg. I won't hold you to it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2016-17 actually doesn’t seem like a bad analog. It had a developing Niña, premature flip to +QBO, and was fairly recent as opposed to old analogs where the Hadley Cells weren’t as wide as they are at present. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Throw me a bone dogg. I won't hold you to it.Oh gawd. I guess 1992/93, 1998/99, and 2016/17 are loose matches? Most of the best shear stress matches are +ENSO, with the exception of 2016/17. Multiyear +ENSO followed by -ENSO isn’t a frequent combination, and the ones that immediately come to mind such as 1988/89, 1995/96, etc, aren’t good analogs from any other standpoint except for that. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 The search for the holy grail of weather weenies, The Perfect Analog, continues... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 1933 Triggered... I'll go with Nov 1985, a better Dec 2008, Jan 1950 & 1969 greatest hits, Feb 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Triggered... I'll go with Nov 1985, a better Dec 2008, Jan 1950 & 1969 greatest hits, Feb 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 I'll throw early Feb 2014 into there too Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Oh gawd. I guess 1992/93, 1998/99, and 2016/17 are loose matches? Most of the best shear stress matches are +ENSO, with the exception of 2016/17. Multiyear +ENSO followed by -ENSO isn’t a frequent combination, and the ones that immediately come to mind such as 1988/89, 1995/96, etc, aren’t good analogs from any other standpoint except for that. Those three would be a good solid mix. This ultra low solar min (in fact ultra low pair of solar mins) may add some old time fun to the mix as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 The search for the holy grail of weather weenies, The Perfect Analog, continues... I don't think analogs are going to be the way to go this time. Too many odd ball things or things that haven't happened for decades going on. I think the current regime shift in the behavior of the QBO could be a huge deal going forward. High chance that is solar driven. That having been said analogs are a viable tool that almost have to be used to some extent in long rage forecasting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 1933 For a Nina year that was an incredible anomaly...probably on par with 1949-50 on the other end of the spectrum. For practical purposes I think we should avoid analogs that are so extreme unless they are used as part of a blend containing many years. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.