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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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Winds will turn from northerly to strong easterly down the McKenzie Valley about 6PM.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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13 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New blog post from Mark!

"I’ve never seen a high wind setup (for the foothills and Cascades) this early in the “Fall east wind season”. This is unusually strong even for November/December, but this hasn’t happened when forests are still totally dry and humidity will be extremely low. This could be a once-in-a-quarter century type of event. I haven’t seen it in my 29 years forecasting here! The Storm Prediction Center has our area under an “extremely critical” fire threat; I don’t think I’ve seen that either"

"That’s a tremendous thermal gradient. So a dry cold front will push south and west across the Pacific Northwest tomorrow afternoon-night. You see the arrival in the WRF-GFS cross-section over Portland. Right around 00z tomorrow (5pm). 60-70kt wind speed around 3,000′ over Portland. That’s amazing; I’ve never seen that in September/October, and it’s very rare anytime in the cold season. So we’re in a bit of uncharted territory here."

https://www.kptv.com/weather/blog/extreme-fire-weather-next-48-hours-includes-damaging-wind-for-some/article_9f381716-f0be-11ea-9a76-47427495df5f.html

So he thinks it will historic like the Nws. Cutting the power off in the Hoodland corridor is a smart idea 

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Seems like the CAA has trended a little more impressive in the home stretch. 850s are now forecast to drop to 9c over PDX tomorrow.

Pretty crazy to see a drop from 22-23c (yesterday) to 9c all with heights staying in the low 590s.

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I dig the forum upgrade. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Can someone help me out here, I keep seeing reference to “mountain wave event”... vs a valley/gap wind event (I think I’ve got that right).

 

Can someone elaborate?

Gap winds are just that.  Typically they’re shallow surface gradients with air getting squeezed through gaps like the Columbia River Gorge where winds accelerate.  They’re typically cold season-centric because they depend on fairly intense thermal gradients.

Mountain wave events depend on particularly deep gradients and typically need some jet stream assistance.  This has some of those aspects but the biggest driver is what will be an exceptional level of cold air advection for early September and optimal mixing.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Big changes on the 12Z ECMWF... it shows rain one week from today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Judging by obs, the wind shift seems to be between Hermiston and The Dalles at the moment.

Wouldn’t be too surprised to see winds arrive in the east metro by 3-5pm.

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Looks like the Southern Valley is poised to pick up a nice, gentle breeze. That's okay, I suppose. The number of significant east wind events down here in my lifetime is about 0.

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Just now, El_Nina said:

View of Mt. Hood is becoming more and more obstructed. 

Heard their was a small new fire up by Meadows this morning.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Live view from the front porch, looking northwest. 

89FAE085-F176-4737-8131-6C4F3245FC1B.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z ECMWF shows Denver in the low 90s today... low 30s tomorrow with snow... and into the 80s again by the weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows Denver in the low 90s today... low 30s tomorrow with snow... and into the 80s again by the weekend.

BCDFBABWU

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL I deleted my KBLI after I saw that you made the same post just before me.  Any idea on when the peak is supposed to hit up here?

Between 00:00 and 06:00 tomorrow according to the AFD this morning. Just starting to get revved up, in other words.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL I deleted my KBLI after I saw that you made the same post just before me.  Any idea on when the peak is supposed to hit up here?

It’ll probably be breezy for awhile...not exactly sure when the “peak” will be. Rubus says the AFD is saying later tonight so I’d bet on that. 

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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Breezy and 75 currently. My wife is up at Samish Bay at our neighbors beach house and she just sent me a video of the winds there, it looks pretty intense with big whitecaps. Usually that area is pretty protected. I went to the lake this morning at 6:30am to take the boat out of the water to beat the madness at the boat launch. Was already a little breezy with some scattered low clouds. 

35256CB9-D348-4E98-A577-7AAFC96E4AFE.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

All the new options for anonymous reactions stand to destroy the very fabric of this forum. 😨

There's not enough to choose from. I gave you a snowflake because everyone likes snow.

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Ventusky has pretty decent winds rolling down the McKenzie this evening Dolt and Eujunga, we shall see...

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Our daughter lives in Laramie.  Temps have been running in the 80's for some time.  By tomorrow they could be in the upper 20's with 1-6" (depending on which forecast) of snow.  Low temps in the teens.  I guess the growing season is over there.  Wow! 

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30 minutes ago, Jesse said:

All the new options for anonymous reactions stand to destroy the very fabric of this forum. 😨

Haven’t received any reactions from “anonymous” on my end but “somebody “ seems to be liking post

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ventusky has pretty decent winds rolling down the McKenzie this evening Dolt and Eujunga, we shall see...

Be prepared for nice kite flying weather. Eujunga has some elevation, so he'll probably catch a few nice breezes.

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