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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Give me a snowflake reaction if you enjoy waking up to new snow falling on top of old snow (Which is actually on top of other snow).    Snow. 

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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I hope Andrew is okay. Silver Falls State Park was just evacuated. There's unconfirmed reports that quite a few homes/cabins burnt down last night up the McKenzie Valley. 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Smoke is pretty bad here this morning. 58 degrees. 39% humidity and a DP of 34. 
was outside for 5 minutes with the dogs and now I smell like I have been next to a camp fire for the last 5hrs. 

It was dead calm here all night long.  It is still a bit smokey but not bad. Had a low of 43 amounting to a 41 degree spread from a high of 84.

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Anyone else notice that if you leave a forum tab open on your phone it will be make a small beep whenever some makes a new post?    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone else notice that if you leave a forum tab open on your phone it will be make a small beep whenever some makes a new post?    

Nope.  It’s just you.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Pretty horrific to see all the wildfire growth overnight. 

Also seems pretty hard to get any idea of where exactly the fires are and what their extent is. Inciweb is usually a great site for that but I’m guessing they can’t keep up right now.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone else notice that if you leave a forum tab open on your phone it will be make a small beep whenever some makes a new post?    

Yeah I kept checking my phone thinking some new app was making notification sounds.

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah I kept checking my phone thinking some new app was making notification sounds.

Me too.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Jake said:

It was dead calm here all night long.  It is still a bit smokey but not bad. Had a low of 43 amounting to a 41 degree spread from a high of 84.

I just ran up to Mt Vernon to drop of my truck to get serviced and the smoke is not bad up there, but yikes it’s still thick right here at my place. Dead calm here overnight as well. 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I just ran up to Mt Vernon to drop of my truck to get serviced and the smoke is not bad up there, but yikes it’s still thick right here at my place. Dead calm here overnight as well. 

It appears that the east wind down here has been pushing smoke into the Sound and its accumulating up there where there is no wind.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Pretty horrific to see all the wildfire growth overnight. 

Also seems pretty hard to get any idea of where exactly the fires are and what their extent is. Inciweb is usually a great site for that but I’m guessing they can’t keep up right now.

Yeah quite a few fires even in Western Washington and Oregon...very scary. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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The ECMWF actually shows the wind turning to the N and NW through the Sound this afternoon which probably clears out Randy's area and pushes it down to Seattle and Tacoma again. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-9598800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked at some ODOT cameras... its pretty surreal around Salem.

Its decent at Woodburn and then you hit a wall of smoke and its crazy dark in Salem for 8 a.m.

 

I-5 at Woodburn_pid3001.jpg

I-5 at ORE22_pid3641.jpg

25th and State_pid2430.jpg

Yeah, my brother and his family that live in Salem just decided to head down to my parents' place in southern OR due to how bad the air is there.

Low. Solar.

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS now picking up on a trough early next week that was not on previous runs.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0171200.png

 

 

12Z GFS came around to the same trough scenario early next week...

 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_26.png

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This week could be it for the year in terms of warm summer like weather.

Wow. That is your main concern right now? How about a little rain so we can get some of these destructive fires put out. Who knows what the weather does after that.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Wow. That is your main concern right now? How about a little rain so we can get these destructive fires out. Who knows what the weather does after that.

Hi officer Jesse! I am actually welcoming more fall like weather, sorry I did not include that in my post. Do I get a warning or a ticket for my lapse of judgement? 
 

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Pretty wild to drive from Edmonds to my office in Tukwila. 

The smoke was so thick that I could smell it in my car, but once I got through downtown I could see Rainier. Here at my office, there is barely a hint of smoke in the air. 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Hi officer Jesse! I am actually welcoming more fall like weather, sorry I did not include that in my post. Do I get a warning or a ticket for my lapse of judgement? 
 

Thoughts and prayers. 🙏

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Hi officer Jesse! I am actually welcoming more fall like weather, sorry I did not include that in my post. Do I get a warning or a ticket for my lapse of judgement? 
 

Yeah... your post was more matter of fact.    Jesse is just so freaked out by anyone having the wrong opinion.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You can hear the ash falling like snow.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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113706C1-492F-4274-ACBB-42641CEA40A8.jpeg
 

Ash thickening even more.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

You can hear the ash falling like snow.

Wow that’s crazy...wind has been so strong here the last 12 hours the smoke is gone. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... your post was more matter of fact.    Jesse is just so freaked out by anyone having the wrong opinion.  

Keeping with the 2020 tradition, here I am agreeing with Tim.

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Can’t hear any animals. Still can’t even see the Coburg hills to the north.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone else notice that if you leave a forum tab open on your phone it will be make a small beep whenever some makes a new post?    

Yeah....I kinda like that. I'm not a big contributor but I rely on you guys for 99% of my weather info.

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Keeping with the 2020 tradition, here I am agreeing with Tim.

Thanks buddy. Of course he is one to talk.

You going to ban me now or later?

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Large burned ash debris occasionally falling too.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Really worried about Andrew.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I was wondering the same thing. Not sure. Still haven’t heard from Andrew...

His house is northwest of the state park boundary. Drake's Crossing/Winter's Hill area.

Appears to be out of the danger zone for now...

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I was wondering the same thing. Not sure. Still haven’t heard from Andrew...

 

I believe his house is just to the northwest of Silver Falls State Park.

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow that’s crazy...wind has been so strong here the last 12 hours the smoke is gone. 

 

Big difference if you have a massive fire upstream in the direction that wind is coming from.

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Rainbow Fire in the McKenzie River area destroyed 100+ structures last night, apparently, and god knows how many the Beachie Creek Fire wrecked. Winds here are absolutely roaring.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I think Andrew's house is in this general area... I remember looking it up one time when he was describing the area.

 

map.png

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