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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And then there's this.

SumrPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

That’s basically saying nothing. He said for the year not the summer.  Below normal for that time period means what? What’s the average rainfall for that period? 1”?

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably low on people's radar right now, but another insane 20 day run of spotless days for the sun now.  The deepest part of the minimum was in November so that is exceptional.  Most extreme solar min since 1814.

 

Shame it hasn't helped us more with the weather.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Almost 3 degrees cooler than 2017. Shows just how extreme that month started.

We’ll get closer to that mark with how the temps are forecast next couple days. It won’t “beat” 2017, but it has been a warm start so far. Just hope the wildfires don’t  get any worse.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And then there's this.

SumrPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

So it appears that while very dry WA has fared better than OR this summer also.  That could have played a large role in us faring quite a bit better up here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Timmy said:

That’s basically saying nothing. He said for the year not the summer.  Below normal for that time period means what? What’s the average rainfall for that period? 1”?

The last 2+ months of precip are meaningless? I'd say that's more meaningful than YTD precip, in terms of dry fuel for fires to burn through.

Average rainfall in the foothills for that period is over 3".

 

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Low. Solar.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

Shame it hasn't helped us more with the weather.

I think it might be responsible for the extreme amplification that caused this mess.  Might help us big time this winter.  The general consensus is these dead solar periods favor abnormal ridging over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, which actually causes AK and Greenland to be warmer than normal in the winter while North America on the Whole and Europe end up cold.  We'll see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

That fire in southern Oregon sounds so destructive. :(

 

I lived in Ashland for 2 years at school, so I’m glad it was spared. Sounds like the little towns of Talent and Phoenix that I drove through many times are pretty much destroyed though. 
 

A lot of evacuations for southern Medford and the pictures from there last night are terrifying. Haven’t heard much new info though. 

Yeah, Phoenix appears to be largely burned down. About 5000 people lived there. I think that's the largest town that's been so badly destroyed thus far.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And then there's this.

SumrPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Less meaningful than it might at first seem. We don’t get much precipitation in summer, anyhow, so a big percentage departure really isn’t that much in absolute terms.

What’s really driving this fire event is the highly abnormal combination of high winds, high temperatures, and bone-dry humidity. It’s much like the Diablo and Santa Ana winds that California gets. My worry is that climate change is going to make this the new normal for us.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it might be responsible for the extreme amplification that caused this mess.  Might help us big time this winter.  The general consensus is these dead solar periods favor abnormal ridging over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, which actually causes AK and Greenland to be warmer than normal in the winter while North America on the Whole and Europe end up cold.  We'll see.

2019-20 was even lower solar and was arguably the most pathetic winter on record in the Northern Hemisphere. 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Less meaningful than it might at first seem. We don’t get much precipitation in summer, anyhow, so a big percentage departure really isn’t that much in absolute terms; our summers are typically dry.

What’s really driving this fire event is the highly abnormal combination of high winds, high temperatures, and bone-dry humidity. It’s much like the Diablo and Santa Ana winds that California gets. My worry is that climate change is going to make this the new normal for us.

Well aware of the summer climate there...lived in the PNW for 25 years. 🙂

And I agree that the unusual pattern is much more to blame. But there is a difference on vegetation there when summers are even drier than normal.

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Low. Solar.

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The 12Z GFS will be delayed according to NOAA.

The 06Z GFS was very troughy in the mid and long range... the 00Z EPS actually trended quite a bit warmer in the long range and only shows a brief troughy period early next week and then ridging builds back in across the West.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

Shame it hasn't helped us more with the weather.

Last September/October was pretty dynamic. Some record-setting stuff. If that pattern had happened in December/January, it would have been epic. Then you have Feb/Mar 2019.

Maybe this winter it will finally deliver mid winter.

 

Low. Solar.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The last 2+ months of precip are meaningless? I'd say that's more meaningful than YTD precip, in terms of dry fuel for fires to burn through.

Average rainfall in the foothills for that period is over 3".

 

Not meaningless, but a lot less meaningful than many assume. We simply don’t get much rain in a typical summer. Until this hot/dry/windy event began, it had been a pretty modest fire season. In an alternate scenario where it didn’t happen, it would still be a pretty modest fire season, despite the drier than average summer.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

WA state has the only coastline along the entire US West Coast that is not covered in thick smoke.

image.png

What an ugly mess.  Tim might have a point about when the flow turns onshore later in the week.  All of that smoke might get incorporated into the marine layer.  We might have sooty drizzle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So it appears that while very dry WA has fared better than OR this summer also.  That could have played a large role in us faring quite a bit better up here.

Not according to some on here. OR is also quite dry typically in the summer, so the anomalies there don't mean much. 

Low. Solar.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last September/October was pretty dynamic. Some record-setting stuff. If that pattern had happened in December/January, it would have been epic. Then you have Feb/Mar 2019.

Maybe this winter it will finally deliver mid winter.

 

Early 2019 was pretty much epic here.  As we all know there is no rule in weather that holds true in all cases.  There is strong evidence extreme solar mins do favor more extreme winters over North America in general.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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I’ve heard unconfirmed reports that the footbridge across the river at Breitenbush Hot Springs has burned and is no more. While that area is inside the fire perimeter, I had been hoping that spotty nature of wildfires (there’s always unburnt and lightly-burnt areas inside a fire perimeter), coupled with their having a professional, certified fire dapartment, would work to their advantage. That a piece of critical infrastructure like that apparently could not be saved bodes ill for that community overall.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

A ridgy Labor Day weekend was shown by the ECMWF and EPS before that.... then the cold trough started showing up on every run.

A cool, rainy Labor Day weekend would have been preferable.

Heat ridges are the 2nd largest source of weather related deaths in the US. Throw in fires that result and it’s easily #1. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

A cool, rainy Labor Day weekend would have been preferable.

Heat ridges are the 2nd largest source of weather related deaths in the US. Throw in fires that result and it’s easily #1. 

 

Thanks for the pointless preference update!   

Nature does not care.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And then there's this.

SumrPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

That..puts things in persective.

Even with summer precip averages relatively low out there, the mere presence of a marine layer (or lack there-of) can make a huge difference in terms of water balance within vegetation. Transpiration and evaporation don’t cease with the inception of drought.

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it might be responsible for the extreme amplification that caused this mess.  Might help us big time this winter.  The general consensus is these dead solar periods favor abnormal ridging over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, which actually causes AK and Greenland to be warmer than normal in the winter while North America on the Whole and Europe end up cold.  We'll see.

The typhoon in the WPAC (yes, there’s that acronym again) was a significant trigger for this one.

  

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That..puts things in persective.

Even with summer precip averages relatively low out there, the mere presence of a marine layer (or lack there-of) can make a huge difference in terms of water balance within vegetation. Transpiration and evaporation don’t cease with the inception of drought.

Good point. For whatever reason, marine layers have been absent. It used to be common for a decent chunk of the summer to have a daily marine layer that burns off by noon or early afternoon. We've had almost none of that lately.

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Due to smoke Salem's high of 77 yesterday was actually 2 degrees below average. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2019-20 was even lower solar and was arguably the most pathetic winter on record in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Yeah the relationship is a lot more complicated than many realize. It’s non-linear, state dependent, spatially-inhomogeneous, and time-delayed with respect to all of the aforementioned (not to mention there are at several separate conduits thru which the solar cycle affects seasonal climate + the disconnect between UV/radiation fluxes and particle precipitation).

In some cases, low solar can actually favor +NAM/warm middle latitudes. Typically with EHEM subsidence/+IOD under +QBO. In other cases, the inverse is true. Also depends on the cycle of the equatorial IPWP (which is also solar driven but lags 2-4yrs).

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

The typhoon in the WPAC (yes, there’s that acronym again) was a significant trigger for this one.

  

This is exactly my thought as well. The  typhoon that hit Korea and Japan played a huge role imo.

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40 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last September/October was pretty dynamic. Some record-setting stuff. If that pattern had happened in December/January, it would have been epic. Then you have Feb/Mar 2019.

Maybe this winter it will finally deliver mid winter.

 

Last September and October were almost perfect. To bad we can't parlay an early fall like that into a great winter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Already up to 80 as of 9:45AM. Going to be a warm one today.

Looking forward to getting my new weather mount tomorrow so I can place my weather station in a more optimal position on the roof. Where it is located now is quite sheltered from wind and too close to the deck, where it might be registering temps a degree or two warmer than reality.

Wanted to get it in a better location before the #snowmaggedon and #snowpocalypse comes this winter.

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16 minutes ago, dolt said:

Good point. For whatever reason, marine layers have been absent. It used to be common for a decent chunk of the summer to have a daily marine layer that burns off by noon or early afternoon. We've had almost none of that lately.

Interesting. Whatcom County has had a marine layer much of this summer, and we don’t have any major fires raging during this event, either.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

That..puts things in persective.

Even with summer precip averages relatively low out there, the mere presence of a marine layer (or lack there-of) can make a huge difference in terms of water balance within vegetation. Transpiration and evaporation don’t cease with the inception of drought.

Hey. Don’t talk sh*t about our nice summer. This hellstorm has cleary been caused by a very cold trough sitting directly over us. With months of default cold troughing beforehand making conditions perfect for this sort of thing. Pretty obvious.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hey. Don’t talk sh*t about our nice summer. This hellstorm has cleary been caused by a very cold trough sitting directly over us. With months of default cold troughing beforehand making conditions perfect for this sort of thing. Pretty obvious.

It was a pretty normal summer dude.

This major fire event WAS caused by a very cold trough to our east.   It was all about the extreme wind as a trigger. 

Sorry you can't admit that... but its true.   This very amplified pattern to start fall is the problem.   Not our fairly typical summer we had this year.

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Interesting. Whatcom County has had a marine layer much of this summer, and we don’t have any major fires raging during this event, either.

I think it’s more important than people realize. All of the water trees absorb is lost through transpiration and evaporation. Especially in a relatively dry summer climate with coniferous vegetation dependent on condensation for dry season hydration, it only takes a modest change in relative humidity (even just 10-15% over 15-20 days or so) to significantly dehydrate or saturate that tissue.

The redwood forests in CA wouldn’t even exist without the marine layer.

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A feel good story regarding community support with all this mess. Too bad covid is in the way, but the support is there. 
 

 

I am sick to death of COVID.  Why can't we just let it play out like any other virus has in the past?  This is coming from someone that may actually have it.  I got tested yesterday and will know for sure in a couple of days.  Either COVID or a nasty flu.  At any rate it is really impinging on our freedoms that we hold so dear.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

I think it’s more important than people realize. All of the water trees absorb is lost through transpiration and evaporation. Especially in a relatively dry summer climate, it only takes a modest change in relative humidity (even just 10-15% over 15-20 days or so) to dehydrate or saturate that tissue. 

Even the dead organic matter is affected by RH, because the moisture it contains is in equilibrium with the air. Wind has also been less of a factor for us. Yes, Monday was very dry, warm, and windy. Since then, however, wind hasn't amounted to very much.

Even up here, it really is abnormally dry thanks to this airmass. I was in the woods yesterday, and I haven’t experienced twigs as dry and brittle as they were except in California at the height of their dry season. RH seems to be making a slow recovery here now the the strongest of the winds have passed.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am sick to death of COVID.  Why can't we just let it play out like any other virus has in the past?  This is coming from someone that may actually have it.  I got tested yesterday and will know for sure in a couple of days.  Either COVID or a nasty flu.  At any rate it is really impinging on our freedoms that we hold so dear.

Wrong thread. 

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Don’t really even know what to think this morning. A large chuck of western Oregon isn’t going to look the same for many years after this week.

I am gut wrenched and am in mourning. I've literally been up the McKenzie Valley hundreds of times. I used to be a river guide up there quite a while ago. I've caught a 10+ pound trout on the McKenzie. It will be changed for a very long time.  

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am sick to death of COVID.  Why can't we just let it play out like any other virus has in the past?  This is coming from someone that may actually have it.  I got tested yesterday and will know for sure in a couple of days.  Either COVID or a nasty flu.  At any rate it is really impinging on our freedoms that we hold so dear.

I agree.  Some snow this winter would be nice.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The more I think about all of the crap out over the ocean the more I don't like what we may see later in the week.  It looks like a sewer out there and it's all going to come flooding back in.  This really could be a very ugly situation for air quality.  I wonder if the NWS is considering that possibility.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wrong thread. 

It was related to a post about the wildfires.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The more I think about all of the crap out over the ocean the more I don't like what we may see later in the week.  It looks like a sewer out there and it's all going to come flooding back in.  This really could be a very ugly situation for air quality.  I wonder if the NWS is considering that possibility.

Either way we need it...soot drizzle is much better than continued offshore flow right now. 

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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