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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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2 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Even Tim has to be wishing for SOME rain right about now

 

 Very much so.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

Give me a snowflake reaction if you enjoy waking up to new snow falling on top of old snow (Which is actually on top of other snow).    Snow. 

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32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Too bad we couldn’t have gotten a northwesterly wind going...Would have been our only hope for smoke relief. 

ECMWF shows a NW wind through the Sound this afternoon...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-9782400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I wonder if that will produce a smokey convergence zone?

No... its NW flow all the way through the Sound.   The is no convergence with SW winds.  

What it should do is keep the smoke to the SW at bay for at least another day in the Seattle area.

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27 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Not going to be a nice day. 

At least it won't be so d**n hot, windy and dry. Give a chance for the firefighters to maybe get a foothold on things. Or at least stop the explosive spread.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... its NW flow all the way through the Sound.   The is no convergence with SW winds.  

What it should do is keep the smoke to the SW at bay for at least another day in the Seattle area.

Too bad that NW breeze doesn’t cross the Cascades to where I will be at later today. 

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Wind finally died overnight here. There has never been an east wind event I have wanted to see end so badly. 

Fell to 60 this morning, and the DP is up close to 50 now. Currently 66 with an incredibly thick smoke layer. Could easily picture today staying in the 70s if it stays this thick.

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Tomorrow is going to be a problem for the Seattle area with SW flow.    But then NW flow returns for Saturday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-9854400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-9955200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
September 9, 2020: 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
New record of 27.0 
Old record of 26.1 set in 1949 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Gibsons Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of 29.1 
Old record of 28.9 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
New record of 30.0 
Old record of 27.7 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
New record of 29.0 
Old record of 28.9 set in 1997 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Sandspit Area (Sandspit Airport Auto) 
New record of 20.9 
Old record of 20.6 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1945 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of 29.1 
Old record of 25.7 set in 2011 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
New record of 31.2 
Old record of 29.5 set in 1989 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Auto) 
New record of 30.3 
Old record of 28.0 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

 

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Dense smoke looks to make it through the sound by late afternoon. It’s going to suck, but a small and wheezy part of me is hoping for some post apocalyptic skies.

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HRRR does not show the smoke shield really arriving in the Seattle area until Saturday morning.   But Saturday could be really ugly up here.

 

trc1_int_f47.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently 66F DP 44 and 46% humidity. Much better than yesterday but AQ still sucks and it’s very smoky despite the marine winds.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

HRRR does not show the smoke shield really arriving in the Seattle area until Saturday morning.   But Saturday could be really ugly up here.

 

trc1_int_f47.png

It's incredible to see the amount of thick smoke coverage encompassing the entire PNW through the weekend. Just horrible.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 1.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 45.0º

Coldest low: 27.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Getting quite smoky out now with heavy aroma of campfire. Sun is orange red.  The deck of smoke above is not like yesterday’s Mars scene which was really fascinating!!! 
Portland 

I haven’t been able to see the sun yet today. 
 

Should keep us cool!

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59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty ugly Cutoff solution on the 12Z GEM

FWIW... the ICON has been trending even worse.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I haven’t been able to see the sun yet today. 
 

Should keep us cool!

That sky we witness yesterday was one for the memory banks! Even up until it got dark was just Twilight Zone material!  
Up to 73* currently 

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Plume of smoke is staying west of the I-5 corridor so far...but the Olympic peninsula is getting smoky a long with the south Washington coast. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

EFDDF799-D194-498D-B2BA-A4A893EADC40.png

 

Unfortunately... the GFS has been consistently too aggressive with troughing lately.    Its been worse than usual.

Just last week the GFS showed rain and highs in the 50s for today and tomorrow and Justin was telling me how climo is a b*tch and its common for early September heat waves to crash hard.    I now really wish he had been correct for the folks in Oregon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the ICON has been trending even worse.    

ICON actually improved from the 00z to 12z for Monday. This is well within sight on the models now, so a total cutoff solution isn't very likely.

 

00z

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

12z

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sky condition has improved pretty dramatically here in the last hour or so.

Wish I could say the same for down here.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

ICON actually improved from the 00z to 12z for Monday. This is well within sight on the models now, so a total cutoff solution isn't very likely.

 

00z

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

12z

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

I guess it does show some rain earlier which is critical.

But its been trending much less progressive overall.

 

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

ICON actually improved from the 00z to 12z for Monday. This is well within sight on the models now, so a total cutoff solution isn't very likely.

 

00z

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

12z

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

Stolen bonus summer 😞

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I guess it does show some rain earlier which is critical.

But its been trending much less progressive overall.

 

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png

 

Models are going to play around with that for days. Shorter term matters the most. Even in a less ideal scenario with it cutting off more, moist southerly flow and convective opportunities would be very much at play.

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sky condition has improved pretty dramatically here in the last hour or so.

Same here. I think the last gasps of offshore flow through the gorge are keeping the low level stuff at bay for now.

Expecting it to drift back east as the last of the offshore flow dies today, though.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Models are going to play around with that for days. Shorter term matters the most. Even in a less ideal scenario with it cutting off more, moist southerly flow and convective opportunities would be very much at play.

Yes... and the 00Z ECMWF was pretty nice in that regard too.

The EPS much less so.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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