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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That shows the fire that exploded today is funneling smoke right to my house (top image) Actually not bad at all here in Orondo, I can even see the stars bright and clear! 

I figured the way the smoke was moving you would have gotten pretty poor conditions. Glad it’s been alright for you so far! 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

Give me a snowflake reaction if you enjoy waking up to new snow falling on top of old snow (Which is actually on top of other snow).    Snow. 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, that should make the people who've lost their businesses this year to Antifa-led violence feel much better.

This is frankly rubbish. The unrest (which has mostly not been violent) is the logically expected outcome of institutional racism, happened organically, and is not the result of an organized conspiracy by "Antifa."

Police brutality and racism have sparked riots many, many times in the past 50 years, well before right-wing idiots were yammering hysterically about "Antifa."

Were the Watts riots of the 1960's caused by "Antifa?"

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

There is absolutely nothing linking antifa to any effort to deliberately ignite forest fires; in fact, the very accusation as I have pointed out is nonsense. There is no organized single groups called "antifa."

People who identify as antifa have been behind a lot of violence and destruction in this country recently. To deny that is to deny reality. It may not be a single organized group, but it is absolutely an organized movement.

That does NOT mean they are behind any of the recent fires (although apparently one pathetic attempt was), but it would not be surprising at all.

 

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The word you are looking for is anarchism, not "anarchy."

Anarchism is the opposition to authority hierarchies (including but not limited to the state). There is nothing per se in anarchism that requires any particular tactic of such opposition (e.g. violence or property destruction), and anarcho-pacifism is one of the prominent tendencies in anarchist thought.

Far, far more violence and property destruction have been committed by governments and corporations than by anarchists.

I’m sure this helps you sleep better at night.  Just as those who have indeed perpetrated government-led violence against the innocent find similar ways to do the same.

Smoky out there!  Hope it snows this winter!🥰

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This is frankly rubbish. The unrest (which has mostly not been violent) is the logically expected outcome of institutional racism, happened organically, and is not the result of an organized conspiracy by "Antifa."

Police brutality and racism have sparked riots many, many times in the past 50 years, well before right-wing idiots were yammering hysterically about "Antifa."

Were the Watts riots of the 1960's caused by "Antifa?"

I am not a "right wing idiot". I am not yammering hysterically. And I'm not making stupid comparisons to past unrest many decades ago.

So you're denying that people who have self-identified as Antifa have not been involved in instigating violence and destruction with the 2020 protests? I am not talking about what prompted the initial protests, I'm talking about what's happened since.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All of their anchors and reporters are pretty much dimes. It's crazy. They are not bad newscasters for a small market either. Not to be a dog here...Just an observation. 

Not a dog at all. We are a “farm system” for developing news talent and I would expect Chynna Greene to be picked up by a bigger market soon.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Antifa stands for "anti-fascist". BLM stands for Black Lives Matter.

If we take everything at face value and assume everything can be explained by a name, it's all good!

 

I do not believe there is some Antifa conspiracy starting these fires, but when your group lights fires every night do not be surprised when they get scapegoated for arson caused fires...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I am not a "right wing idiot". I am not yammering hysterically. And I'm not making stupid comparisons to past unrest many decades ago.

So you're denying that people who have self-identified as Antifa have not been involved in instigating violence and destruction with the 2020 protests? I am not talking about what prompted the initial protests, I'm talking about what's happened since.

 

 

I'm not sure he is denying it, I think he is saying it is okay. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Please take the political BS to the appropriate forum. At least the newscaster talk relates to local environmental news and weather.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I am not a "right wing idiot". I am not yammering hysterically. And I'm not making stupid comparisons to past unrest many decades ago.

So you're denying that people who have self-identified as Antifa have not been involved in instigating violence and destruction with the 2020 protests? I am not talking about what prompted the initial protests, I'm talking about what's happened since.

 

 

I fail to see what's "stupid" about comparing past urban rioting motivated by rage at racism to present-day urban rioting motivated by rage at racism, particularly in response to an insinuation that the present-day rioting exists primarily because "antifa" conspired to create it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Please take the political BS to the appropriate forum. At least the newscaster talk relates to local environmental news and weather.

Yes! 

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not sure he is denying it, I think he is saying it is okay. 

I am saying it is logical to expect it. "Logically expectible" and "ethically justifiable" are two different, disjoint concepts.

The rioting is hardly something that appeared for no discernible reason and which has no better explanation than that "antifa" conspired to create it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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57F and smoky. 77% humidity so that should help slow the fires.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Starting to think that ULL next week will really pump an endless supply of CA smoke northward.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'm thinking either that, 1996 flood, or a big Columbus Day level storm...either way, 2020 is not done with us yet...

With all the denuded, hydrophobic soils, odds of a major flood have definitely gone up, particularly in Oregon. Particularly in light of what could happen if reservoirs silted up and became mostly useless for flood-control purposes (this has happened at least once in California).

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I'm happy to not be the one being raked over the coals tonight!

At any rate.  The heat and hot winds are done!  Thank god!  That crap was driving me nuts.  People that don't live in east wind areas don't realize how destructive those dry winds are.  The vegetation around my house looks like it's been through a war.  It's going to be nice to move forward into much more pleasant weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'm thinking either that, 1996 flood, or a big Columbus Day level storm...either way, 2020 is not done with us yet...

Or maybe a massively cold winter.  We are really due!

Even if that happens I think there will be another very big event before that during the autumn.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I am not a "right wing idiot". I am not yammering hysterically. And I'm not making stupid comparisons to past unrest many decades ago.

P.S. I apologize for using that term in my post. I wasn't applying it to you, but I can see how that intent on my part could have been less than clear, and the language really served no useful point anyhow.

I will not be posting further in this forum on this subject.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm happy to not be the one being raked over the coals tonight!

At any rate.  The heat and hot winds are done!  Thank god!  That crap was driving me nuts.  People that don't live in east wind areas don't realize how destructive those dry winds are.  The vegetation around my house looks like it's been through a war.  It's going to be nice to move forward into much more pleasant weather.

 

Oh yeah... it will be real pleasant.   🤔

 

trc1_int_f44.png

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Two looters were caught after a high speed chase on Oregon Hwy 22 today. Absolutely abhorrent to be robbing from people in Detroit and Idahana who have lost their homes. 

what ever happened to "looters will be shot on sight"?  I have zero tolerance for that kind of bulls**t!

😡

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Canadian smoke model shows the same thing on Saturday.   The good news is that its all shifting to the NE pretty quickly at that point so maybe it will get better on Sunday.

 

 

2020091100_V2020091300Z_gemmach_PM2.5_diffplot_column_continental_48.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Canadian smoke model shows the same thing on Saturday.   The good news is that its all shifting to the NE pretty quickly at that point so maybe it will get better on Sunday.

 

 

2020091100_V2020091300Z_gemmach_PM2.5_diffplot_column_continental_48.png

Both that and the other map are total-column smoke. I’d be curious as to what maps forecasting smoke at ground level have to say.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Both that and the other map are total-column smoke. I’d be curious as to what maps forecasting smoke at ground level have to say.

 

Canadian model says it will be horrible on the ground too.   Real pleasant.  

 

 

2020091100_V2020091300Z_gemmach_PM2.5_diffplot_surface_continental_48.png

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7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

what ever happened to "looters will be shot on sight"?  I have zero tolerance for that kind of bulls**t!

😡

I think this might be your shortest and angriest post ever.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very encouraging update about our area. Sounds like they made good progress on a fire line to protect our homes. 

That is awesome news!  

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4 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

It’s pure craziness watching the news right now and the live evacuation happening!  It’s just not real! 
 

72* now 

Portland 

This whole year hasn't seemed real.  Just a sheit show for the last 6 months.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Canadian model says it will be horrible on the ground too.   Real pleasant.  

 

 

2020091100_V2020091300Z_gemmach_PM2.5_diffplot_surface_continental_48.png

I'm wondering how much ash there will be on the ground at our house if it is still there. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The GFS, ICON and GEM are starting to look pretty similar for Monday-Tuesday. GFS and ICON look great but the GEM is a bit too far north and offshore with the troughing still. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_36.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_18.png

 

Nice to see that significant precip early next week for the areas that really need it is still on the table

gfs_apcpn_nwus_30.png

 

gem_apcpn_nwus_30.png

icon_apcpn_nwus_60.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very encouraging update about our area. Sounds like they made good progress on a fire line to protect our homes. 

Excellent news!!!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Down to 55 at Salem.  COLDEST evening this fall thus far.

That is actually somewhat impressive for this early in the evening at this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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It would be awesome to see the ICON be right and western Oregon gets drenched... but that model is notoriously too wet.

Still... some rain seems all but certain now and that will be a huge win down there.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be awesome to see the ICON be right and western Oregon gets drenched... but that model is notoriously too wet.

Still... some rain seems all but certain now and that will be a huge win down there.

It all looks questionable up here, but we don't need it as bad.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Oh no, I still abide by the rule of "why only use 1 word when you can use 20"

 

Most people would have just said "F**K Looters!"  

However it is said....I agree with your thoughts on looters.  This year has just been too painful for too many for selfish SOBs like that to get away with it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It all looks questionable up here, but we don't need it as bad.

Yeah... not expecting too much up here.   Normally this would be a pretty nice pattern for us with partly sunny days and a few showers at times and fairly warm.    

But with all the smoke in CA and the fires still going... it might just be a smoke-filled mess in persistent southerly flow.

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14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Kinda amazing to me it hasn’t cool much since the sun set almost 3 hours ago. Still 72F out. May be because it’s completely calm out. 

That wouldn't be it. Generally, calm conditions are much better for cooling at night. 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very encouraging update about our area. Sounds like they made good progress on a fire line to protect our homes. 

I am very glad to hear this Andrew. I have been watching the NW perimeter of the fire for the last couple days now and have been happy to see it has made little forward progress toward your area.

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Just now, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Does anyone have a link to the HRRR smoke model? I’ve been trying to find it without luck.

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_smoke_jet&domain=full&run_time=11+Sep+2020+-+00Z

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very encouraging update about our area. Sounds like they made good progress on a fire line to protect our homes. 

That's great news buddy! God bless to all the firefighters out there. 🙏

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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