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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Smoke is really starting to roll in now. Stayed up until 01:00 airing the place out before I shut the windows and went to bed.

One silver lining to this literal dark cloud: it’s going to be cool enough to not have to choose between suffering in the heat with the windows closed and suffering in the smoke with them open, like it was in 2017.

forecast.png

Yeah it’s only 53 here this morning. Odd for how smoky it is. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

Give me a snowflake reaction if you enjoy waking up to new snow falling on top of old snow (Which is actually on top of other snow).    Snow. 

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Smoke is really starting to roll in now. Stayed up until 01:00 airing the place out before I shut the windows and went to bed.

One silver lining to this literal dark cloud: it’s going to be cool enough to not have to choose between suffering in the heat with the windows closed and suffering in the smoke with them open, like it was in 2017.

forecast.png

This is the hope I'm holding onto. If it's oppressively hot inside and I can't use my A/C units/fans then it's going to be a long weekend.

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

This is the hope I'm holding onto. If it's oppressively hot inside and I can't use my A/C units/fans then it's going to be a long weekend.

It won’t be hot out...especially with dense smoke covering the area. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

This is the hope I'm holding onto. If it's oppressively hot inside and I can't use my A/C units/fans then it's going to be a long weekend.

 

I am hoping that the Sunday forecast is correct and the smoke is clearing out by then.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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skipped my morning walk today

air quality is just nasty

your mask doesn't protect against the wild fire particulates in the air, says the Pierce County Health Department

but wear your mask to protect against Covid 19

the irony is so rich, i need a Tums

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Good morning.  It's a cool feeling 55 degrees this morning.  I live about a mile southeast of the Sumner Grade fire.  We have light haze.  The smoke smell isn't too bad currently.  I have all the windows open trying to cool the place down before it heats up later.

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Regarding the downvote arrow. Just turn your device upside down and it’s a positive vote.

Looks like a foggy September morning

One frustrating aspect to this event unfolding is information from the news on estimates of how far the fire is moving per day and directions. According to the thermal map looks the same to me. 
 

53*  and winds calm 

Portland

 

BF571489-FFD0-4019-9849-7C628A761FB3.jpeg

EE1F2C9D-BCE7-4FC9-B091-2637118DE1CE.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Jeez can barely see across the street this morning.

Not nearly that bad out here.

I think the hills are still protecting us from the nasty low level crap.    That won't last though.

 

20200911_072359.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

skipped my morning walk today

air quality is just nasty

your mask doesn't protect against the wild fire particulates in the air, says the Pierce County Health Department

but wear your mask to protect against Covid 19

the irony is so rich, i need a Tums

Outdoor activities denied :( 

me too

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12 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

skipped my morning walk today

air quality is just nasty

your mask doesn't protect against the wild fire particulates in the air, says the Pierce County Health Department

but wear your mask to protect against Covid 19

the irony is so rich, i need a Tums

Are the scary raindrops gone from your phone at least?

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Managed to fall all the way to 52 here despite the incredibly thick smoke. Weird having it actually be cool out while still looking like Mordor.

Seems to be a different dynamic than during the Eagle Creek fire three years ago. The smoke actually never got quite as dense, but we got stuck in a humid low level smokebath with lows in the mid-60s for days.

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Managed to fall all the way to 52 here despite the incredibly thick smoke. Weird having it be actually cool out while still looking like Mordor.

Seems to be a different dynamic than during the eagle creek fire three years ago. The smoke actually never got quite as dense, but we got stuck in a humid low level smokebath with lows in the mid-60s for days.

 

More like Dune 1984

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28 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Regarding the downvote arrow. Just turn your device upside down and it’s a positive vote.

Looks like a foggy September morning

One frustrating aspect to this event unfolding is information from the news on estimates of how far the fire is moving per day and directions. According to the thermal map looks the same to me. 
 

53*  and winds calm 

Portland

 

BF571489-FFD0-4019-9849-7C628A761FB3.jpeg

EE1F2C9D-BCE7-4FC9-B091-2637118DE1CE.jpeg

My understanding is the fires really did not move west much yesterday. I think the added evacuations yesterday were out of an abundance of caution, but created a lot of panic. Which makes sense after what happened on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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06z GFS was pretty meh.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Feels like the rain event early next week is slipping away from us.

Yeah. Oh well. The ridiculous heat pattern is behind us. I ll take whatever good news I can get.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah. Oh well. The ridiculous heat pattern is behind us. I ll take whatever good news I can get.

Heat or no, the fires will keep burning/growing until we get some rain.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Heat or no, the fires will keep burning/growing until we get some rain.

They will, I pray we do get some rain. But I don’t have the energy at this point to get emotionally invested in it. If there is one thing 2020 is teaching me, it is how little control we have over many of the events that shape our lives. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They will, I pray we do get some rain. But I don’t have the energy at this point to get emotionally invested in it. If there is one thing 2020 is teaching me, it is how little control we have over many of the events that shape our lives. 

Definitely understandable from your perspective. 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

This is pretty close to ideal placement and intensity actually.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

Yeah at face value, but it seems like large scale trends haven't been great with regard to cutoff behavior the last day or so. The 06Z was kind of like that run that shows Portland getting buried with overrunning slop despite faster moderation, when the writing is on the wall that the overall model trends are moving away from giving us any significant cold air to work with in the first place

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

skipped my morning walk today

air quality is just nasty

your mask doesn't protect against the wild fire particulates in the air, says the Pierce County Health Department

but wear your mask to protect against Covid 19

the irony is so rich, i need a Tums

Your mask won't protect you from other people's COVID-19 germs. This has been known for months. Wearing masks is about protecting other people from your germs.

Edit: and there's another forum for discussing this further, so I will not be posting on it further here.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Definitely understandable from your perspective.  

It is a lesson in true empathy I probably needed to learn. But yeah, we do need rain. Already enough damage caused by these fires. Enough trails and campgrounds that will be closed for the next couple of years as crews work to clear them up. If we had some visionary state/federal leadership we would get a replanting/trail maintenance program going to help in the recovery and provide jobs. I cannot imagine how beneficial that could be, help heal our land while teaching people the value of real hard work. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is a lesson in true empathy I probably needed to learn. But yeah, we do need rain. Already enough damage caused by these fires. Enough trails and campgrounds that will be closed for the next couple of years as crews work to clear them up. If we had some visionary state/federal leadership we would get a replanting/trail maintenance program going to help in the recovery and provide jobs. I cannot imagine how beneficial that could be, help heal our land while teaching people the value of real hard work. 

Civilian Conservation Corps round two. :')

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Yeah at face value, but it seems like large scale trends haven't been great with regard to cutoff behavior the last day or so. The 06Z was kind of like that run that shows Portland getting buried with overrunning slop despite faster moderation, when the writing is on the wall that the overall model trends are moving away from giving us any significant cold air to work with in the first place

Except in this case the precip intensity isn't really dependent upon overmodeled CAA at all. The placement will keep varying with the cutoff low and the placement of the rather narrow deformation zone will be an offshoot of that, but there's been very consistent support for a juicy band or two to develop in the region on the eastern axis of the trough.

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Just now, Jake said:

Getting pretty murky here.  59 after a low of 52 and a muggy 86 DP.

image.jpeg

 

 

Was just about to ask you how things were looking around our area. Pretty socked in over in Eastern Washington where I am at this morning as well. 

2A59BF38-B5C2-4394-BAF4-C73A1AFE4A1F.jpeg

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Except in this case the precip intensity isn't really dependent upon overmodeled CAA at all. The placement will keep varying with the cutoff low and the placement of the rather narrow deformation zone will be an offshoot of that, but there's been very consistent support for a juicy band or two to develop in the region on the eastern axis of the trough.

Well yeah, it's based on the position of a ULL which seems to be gradually shifting west with each subsequent run. I agree that things aren't set in stone as they rarely are with these ULLs even in the mid range, but the trend hasn't been our friend the last several runs, even if the 06z managed to put us in the sweet spot.

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

skipped my morning walk today

air quality is just nasty

your mask doesn't protect against the wild fire particulates in the air, says the Pierce County Health Department

but wear your mask to protect against Covid 19

the irony is so rich, i need a Tums

I think an N-95 will protect against particulate.  Sometimes I have to wear one when I mow the lawn due to pollen.  The masks most people are wearing would probably do little for the smoke.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Well yeah, it's based on the position of a ULL which seems to be gradually shifting west with each subsequent run. I agree that things aren't set in stone as they rarely are with these ULLs even in the mid range, but the trend hasn't been our friend the last several runs, even if the 06z managed to put us in the sweet spot.

Last night's ECMWF actually had the northern branch being dominant at one point.  A huge change.  It does result in a better outcome down the road.  Much uncertainty right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The worst of the smoke is yet to push in...already pretty nasty but it’s will be worse as it pushes further north. 

5398ADD1-23D7-4A10-8314-71F0036EAA75.jpeg

Amazing how dense that crap looks on that pic.  It is really filling in the valleys and basins.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Last night's ECMWF actually had the northern branch being dominant at one point.  A huge change.  It does result in a better outcome down the road.  Much uncertainty right now.

ULLs are always tough. And somewhat unusual for this time of year, as was mentioned last night.

The ULL we are watching next week is actually the same one that helped pump up the steroidal offshore ridge that contributed to our firestorm pattern earlier this week.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Amazing how dense that crap looks on that pic.  It is really filling in the valleys and basins.

Yeah it’s really filling in the lower levels. AQI is still in the 150 range most places it seems. Probably will be closer to 300 or so soon. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think an N-95 will protect against particulate.  Sometimes I have to wear one when I mow the lawn due to pollen.  The masks most people are wearing would probably do little for the smoke.

Yep. Along with the small respirator masks you see some people wearing.

Low. Solar.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The worst of the smoke is yet to push in...already pretty nasty but it’s will be worse as it pushes further north. 

5398ADD1-23D7-4A10-8314-71F0036EAA75.jpeg

That fire in the north cascades that was funneling smoke to my house yesterday is now flowing smoke right to where I’m at in Eastern Washington now.

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46 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

That's b/c it is, that D**n cutoff low is screwing with the pattern and likely going to leave us high and dry.

That cutoff low is driven by the pattern, not the other way around.

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Just now, MossMan said:

That fire in the north cascades that was funneling smoke to my house yesterday is now flowing smoke right to where I’m at in Eastern Washington now.

Sort of like sitting around a campfire, but on a larger scale.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Ugly.

seasmoke.jpg

 

Looks like LA in the 70s.  This is a really weird episode.  I can never recall having thick smoke over the ocean move in over us like this.  A very rare sequence of events.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

ULLs are always tough. And somewhat unusual for this time of year, as was mentioned last night.

The ULL we are watching next week is actually the same one that helped pump up the steroidal offshore ridge that contributed to our firestorm pattern earlier this week.

One thing nobody can deny is we are in a weird regime right now.  One weird thing usually leads to another when we get off kilter like this.  Going to be fascinating to see where we go.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Just like that the sun is on another wild spotless streak.  Currently 22 days in combination with the lowest AP seen in the modern era.  I don't think anyone thought it would go this dead again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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I was talking to a met who posts in here sometimes. He was explaining the smoke keeps daytime highs down because it is really good at reflecting the sunlight/heating, but does not do much to inhibit radational cooling. Kind of interesting. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was talking to a met who posts in here sometimes. He was explaining the smoke keeps daytime highs down because it is really good at reflecting the sunlight/heating, but does not do much to inhibit radational cooling. Kind of interesting. 

I found that interesting when we had the really bad smoke episode a few years ago.

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