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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was talking to a met who posts in here sometimes. He was explaining the smoke keeps daytime highs down because it is really good at reflecting the sunlight/heating, but does not do much to inhibit radational cooling. Kind of interesting. 

Similar to SO2 from volcanic eruptions. Effectively blocks incoming solar radiation but does very little to stop outgoing thermal. We are basically seeing the local affects of a volcanic winter type pattern at the moment. Makes it easier to imagine the kind of drastic impacts that would come about if this phenomenon were happening on a global scale

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Managed to fall all the way to 52 here despite the incredibly thick smoke. Weird having it actually be cool out while still looking like Mordor.

Seems to be a different dynamic than during the Eagle Creek fire three years ago. The smoke actually never got quite as dense, but we got stuck in a humid low level smokebath with lows in the mid-60s for days.

 

This crazy inversion is yet another interesting wrinkle in this one.  As Justin pointed out yesterday the obs in Salem yesterday were unreal given the 850s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

This is pretty close to ideal placement and intensity actually.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

Looks like the 12Z run is less favorable and has shifted a little west.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Similar to SO2 from volcanic eruptions. Effectively blocks incoming solar radiation but does very little to stop outgoing thermal. We are basically seeing the local affects of a volcanic winter type pattern at the moment. Makes it easier to imagine the kind of drastic impacts that would come about if this phenomenon were happening on a global scale

This is a fascinating case study to say the least.  At least some locations will have notably different monthly averages than they would have had without the fires.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Crisp fall morning out there!  

if we weren’t living in bizarro world I’d think the kids would be heading back to school soon.

I think we are in the Upside Down.

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing nobody can deny is we are in a weird regime right now.  One weird thing usually leads to another when we get off kilter like this.  Going to be fascinating to see where we go.

I’m hoping we can go off kilter like November 1985 or December 2008 or January 1950 or February 2019! 

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Salem pulled off a -4 departure yesterday with a 67/53 day. Without the smoke they would have easily been in the 90s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I think we are in the Upside Down.

Seems like that place was primed for some exceptionally cold air masses so that may not entirely be a bad thing.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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48 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The air quality was ok in Victoria last night, it's become absolutely disgusting in the last 2 hours.

Visibility went from 20 miles to 3 miles in the past 2 hours at YYJ

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem pulled off a -4 departure yesterday with a 67/53 day. Without the smoke they would have easily been in the 90s. 

That is truly remarkable.  Just that one day will have a notable effect on their monthly average.  I imagine Wednesday and today are being profoundly effected as well.  As for here...I can't believe how different it feels than yesterday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not too bad of smoke here yet, at least at the lower level. It has replaced the normal blue sky though so definitely moving in above.

Up to 61 now. Running about 10-15 degrees cooler than the previous days at this time.

It's pretty ugly here.  Are you in Maple Valley right now?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey!  The fires got us a reprieve for the big I-5 Bridge closure!

Win!!!

That and below normal temperatures!  We should do this more often....j/k.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Hey!  The fires got us a reprieve for the big I-5 Bridge closure!

Win!!!

My friend took the week off work to avoid it... lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 12z GFS is following the lead of the ECMWF and indicating the northern branch coming much closer early next week.  It really effects the pattern evolution.  At any rate no more heat anywhere in sight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My friend took the week off work to avoid it... lol

I've seen a couple rants this morning from colleagues about this issue.  Wasn’t a good look.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

12z GFS looks like it wants to try and get some actual zonal flow going in the long range, but still looks a little splitty.

The models are pretty lost right now I would say.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah I'm at home. There's a hint of smoke smell in the air, but it seems mostly elevated.

You might be a bit above it so far.  Here I can see haze just looking across the street.  At last obs Bellingham's pressure was 5 points lower than PDX so the outcome is inevitable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I've seen a couple rants this morning from colleagues about this issue.  Wasn’t a good look.

My buddy seemed to take it in stride. He is pretty much the opposite of me when it comes to chill level. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Still heavy smell over here in SE Portland

#ColdCampfireSmoke

Either way, we’re absolutely owning the Puget Sound during this event.  Hopefully a sign of things to come.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just watched some Youtube videos of 9/11, including a couple that had cell phone calls from people that were on the planes or in the WTC. Absolutely chilling - gave me goosebumps. Way too heavy of stuff for 10 in the morning. Almost 20 years later and still remember it very vividly. So horrible. 

Then you think of the firefighters and policemen that ran towards the towers to help and ended up losing their lives. Makes this whole 'defund the police' movement seem incredibly short-sighted and hollow. 9/11 is an important reminder of how much we should treasure our law enforcement and the sacrifices they make every day.

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Some hope that the main smoke plume will be pushed to the east by Sunday morning... at least it should be improving.

 

2020091112_V2020091312Z_gemmach_PM2.5_diffplot_column_continental_48.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

AQI is still only in the moderate level in most of Whatcom County. Unfortunately, that won’t last.

Definitely could smell the though starting about 6am.  Closed up the windows, then went to Lowe's to get air filters for our window fans.  Next house will definitely have A/C.

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Either way, we’re absolutely owning the Puget Sound during this event.  Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Portland has gotten DOUBLE the ash accumulation! So jealous. 😂

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just watched some Youtube videos of 9/11, including a couple that had cell phone calls from people that were on the planes or in the WTC. Absolutely chilling - gave me goosebumps. Way too heavy of stuff for 10 in the morning. Almost 20 years later and still remember it very vividly. So horrible. 

Then you think of the firefighters and policemen that ran towards the towers to help and ended up losing their lives. Makes this whole 'defund the police' movement seem incredibly short-sighted and hollow. 9/11 is an important reminder of how much we should treasure our law enforcement and the sacrifices they make every day.

I remember the weather that day was about as crystal clear as one could imagine.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Definitely could smell the though starting about 6am.  Closed up the windows, then went to Lowe's to get air filters for our window fans.  Next house will definitely have A/C.

It’s too late to order one for this event, but either later this fall (sale prices…) or next spring I’m investing in an A/C unit.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s too late to order one for this event, but either later this fall (sale prices…) or next spring I’m investing in an A/C unit.

My current house is too big and open for anything less than whole house unit, and because of the size (and the 20 year old furnace unit) I shudder to think how much it would cost.  I've been wanting to sell, move out into the county and downsize but 4 months of furlough have kinda put a kink in those plans. Any way, that house WILL have an A/C unit.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It will all even out. They get to own us on smoke and ash right now, we get to own them on snow later. 😏

Don’t worry, nature will find a way to avoid giving Washington County snow. 

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26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just watched some Youtube videos of 9/11, including a couple that had cell phone calls from people that were on the planes or in the WTC. Absolutely chilling - gave me goosebumps. Way too heavy of stuff for 10 in the morning. Almost 20 years later and still remember it very vividly. So horrible. 

Then you think of the firefighters and policemen that ran towards the towers to help and ended up losing their lives. Makes this whole 'defund the police' movement seem incredibly short-sighted and hollow. 9/11 is an important reminder of how much we should treasure our law enforcement and the sacrifices they make every day.

The worse one was the guy who was on the phone with 911 when the towers began to fall.  He was already understandably upset, and thinking he would die.  Then you hear the rumble, and he screams "Oh God!! ...." and then the call got cut off.

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Don’t worry, nature will find a way to avoid giving Washington County snow. 

Yes, I’m sure your doughnut’s reputation is safe.

I really shouldn’t be such a snarky *******. Whatcom County often gets skunked in the snow department due to excessive Fraser outflow eating it for breakfast, lunch, and dinner before it can reach the ground. Then the marine flow kicks in and Bellingham gets 35 degree rain while Vancouver gets buried as the cold air banks against the Coast Mountains and lingers there.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Starting to get hazy now... but at least the sky is still blue and the sun is shining.    Won't be the case tomorrow it appears. 

20200911_110623.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Would be interested to know what the likely impacts of this are, particularly for those of us in the Pacific Northwest.

Reflects a strong walker cell/E-W SLP gradient across the tropical Pacific, which enhances the equatorial overturning circulation/upwelling tongue associated with La Niña.

In other words, it’s reflective of, and reinforces, the La Niña background state.

Quite persistent on the EPS too:

EK8LNOA.png

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There’s also a CCKW progged to cross the Pacific during the 3rd week of the month. Given the probable in-situ conditions, watch for some NPAC/GOA troughing and some model volatility during that timeframe.

oUILhEz.jpg

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