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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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Can y'all imagine if everything that burned instead of timber was cannabis? This would be a "megatsunami" of a hotbox.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

A warm and smoky 78F here this afternoon 

Same conditions here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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54F and smoky.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

Anybody concerned about south winds on Monday up the valleys?

Don't be too concerned...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-0128000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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53 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

00z Euro is further west with the first round of precip. 🙄

Wetter for Tim, though.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wetter for Tim, though.

Yep the rain will probably go to the one guy that doesn't need it or like it. 

I'm still really curious to see how much the modeled predictions will deviate from actual results given that low is running into a huge area of smoke and all these areas under the smoke are running much cooler than modeled. I feel like this is gonna have to result in some nontrivial amount of compounded errors in the forecast for next week. Will be fun to see how it turns out. 

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Looking more and more unlikely anyone east of I-5 in Oregon (Where it is needed) will see any rain early next week. Juicy system on the GFS for later in the week. But who knows...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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PDX had a -7 temp departure yesterday. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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68/45 yesterday for a -5.8F departure. Coolest day of Sept so far.

Currently 45F which is our low.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Disgusting out there.

Thankfully this crap is on the move now and we don't have to deal with it as long as the people in Oregon and SW WA have been dealing with it.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke even worse. Like quarter-mile visibility.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

North Bend! They are at the number that the station nearest to me was reading yesterday when I posted the river pics. We are fairing a little better this morning. 

Its all bad.

At least the Seahawks play tomorrow morning... that will give us something to do!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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By tomorrow evening this should be over on the west side of the mountains...

 

trc1_int_f40.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Low of 50 this morning with a DENSE smokey fog. Visibility below 1/8 mile. 

This cold wildfire smoke inversion has to be one of the more bizarre weather phenomena I've witnessed personally.

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Smoke is very thick today. Fairly dark out for 9am. Could not make the sun out in the sky either. This smoke is definitely worse than what we saw in 2017 or 2018. 

5C688947-A312-42D5-8859-AD31F9203593.jpeg

CBA5AEBA-A049-4057-8BFF-8021D426C846.jpeg

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like nuclear winter outside here in W. Eugene. After work yesterday we drove out to Florence, it’s only an hour from where we are staying, and the smoke was not quite as bad over there. It was ridiculously cold, I believe the high was 54. My daughter didn’t care about the cold though and played in the lake until the sun went down, my wife read a book, and I caught a limit of trout. It was nice to feel normal. 

2A34C0C8-7B84-4E2C-952E-B07A6A076757.jpeg

FA15D372-0E49-4E32-8FB5-CFF30C9FEADA.jpeg

Looks like a nice day Andrew. When do you think you may be able to return to your home?

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Low of 50 this morning with a DENSE smokey fog. Visibility below 1/8 mile. 

This cold wildfire smoke inversion has to be one of the more bizarre weather phenomena I've witnessed personally.

It’s very weird. Got down to 52 and dew is on the grass and cars...but dark smoke is blocking out the sun. Very bizarre. 
 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The sun is technically visible here... its a red circle.

I was trying to find it this morning but I couldn’t make it out. 

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I was trying to find it this morning but I couldn’t make it out. 

Same here... couldn’t find it, though I don’t know if it’s all smoke. Believe there may be a combination of the dense smoke and marine layer. Can’t really tell tbh. 

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like a nice day Andrew. When do you think you may be able to return to your home?

Not really sure. Maybe at least check things out by the end of the weekend, but most likely not until we get a little rain. The power is out too, so even when they allow us to go back I will probably just go in and try and tend the animals that were left behind. Each day that goes by I get a little more worried about them, but they had a lot of water and forage, and the pig will get into the feed in the shop if it needs to. I am pretty committed to not going back in until it drops to level 2. I do not want to do anything to get in the way of firefighting efforts up there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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