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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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Smoke analysis from Cliff Mass... bottom line is that models just cannot predict inversions.   This is true during our normal winter inversion periods as well.    Inversion truly suck! 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/much-more-pessimistic-air-quality.html

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Give me a snowflake reaction if you enjoy waking up to new snow falling on top of old snow (Which is actually on top of other snow).    Snow. 

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke analysis from Cliff Mass... bottom line is that models just cannot predict inversions.   This is true during our normal winter inversion periods as well.    Inversion truly suck! 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/much-more-pessimistic-air-quality.html

They are the life source of the marine layer

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Last couple GFS runs have downgraded the Thursday system by quite a bit. D**n.

Colder air aloft is the key to scouring out the low level crap.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Colder air aloft is the key to scouring out the low level crap.

I would keep this crap for 1”

of rain. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Why the heck is it that I can go to 3 different sites and get 3 different readings for air quality???

 

purpleair says it is 187 here

Washington department of ecology says it is 314

aqicn.org says it is 248

oh and let's throw in an app for good measure.....Air Matters says it is 224...

 

All of them are for the Yew st station

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I would like to remind everyone that what OR and parts of WA are experiencing are not "wildfires" but instead "climate fires" per our resident overlord.

https://komonews.com/news/local/inslee-washington-battling-climate-fires-not-wildfires

 

ha! What a load of shight. 

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Still socked in here. Up to 77 though so much warmer than yesterday. Air quality is still awful.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I would like to remind everyone that what OR and parts of WA are experiencing are not "wildfires" but instead "climate fires" per our resident overlord.

https://komonews.com/news/local/inslee-washington-battling-climate-fires-not-wildfires

Lord Newsome in CA has said much the same.

Climate change is clearly the only answer for the circumstances of careless humans starting fires combined with an unusual offshore-wind weather pattern.

 

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Low. Solar.

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43 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That may be it for whatever precip coming down today as radar is showing the bulk of the rain is offshore and at the coast moving NE. Got like a minute’s worth of fat rain drops.

Some years they call something like that a "storm" in Southern California.

Last year we had some real storms.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Lord Newsome in CA has said much the same.

Climate change is the only answer for the circumstances of careless humans starting fires combined with an unusual offshore-wind weather pattern.

 

Inslee is as stupid and misguided on climate change as he is on COVID.

Nanny state!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Today's weather...warmer smoke. 

In other news, just looking at the one hour precip loop it seems like thunderstorms racing up the valley Thursday.  I haven't looked at any other parameters yet though.

Screenshot_2020-09-14 or_pcp1 81 0000 gif (GIF Image, 900 × 900 pixels)(1).png

Southerly flow could spread the wildfires north into more populated areas

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Hopefully Chris checks in... it looks like there is improvement on the WA coast as well and its slowly moving inland.  Harder to tell over there though because there are clouds above the smoke. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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57 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Why the heck is it that I can go to 3 different sites and get 3 different readings for air quality???

 

purpleair says it is 187 here

Washington department of ecology says it is 314

aqicn.org says it is 248

oh and let's throw in an app for good measure.....Air Matters says it is 224...

 

All of them are for the Yew st station

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/why-purpleair-and-airnow-show-different-aqi-scores-during-wildfires/ar-BB18qgSc

Executive summary: different types of sensors, with different tradeoffs. PurpleAir's are less expensive, more numerous, and respond faster to current conditions, but they are less accurate than the official government ones.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully Chris checks in... it looks like there is improvement on the WA coast as well and its slowly moving inland.  Harder to tell over there though because there are clouds above the smoke. 

No improvement here yet, smoke smell is worse than any other day has been as well.

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Never thought a 185 reading would feel so good on the lungs...But after experiencing the 500+ reading this morning near Orondo while loading up the truck and getting the boat ready to tow...It was refreshing to get home! Not that it looks good around here...

30275B26-2BDD-441D-9BD4-1C5E614B67CF.jpeg

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47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Lord Newsome in CA has said much the same.

Climate change is clearly the only answer for the circumstances of careless humans starting fires combined with an unusual offshore-wind weather pattern.

 

Newsom himself said we need to thin out our forests, which is something environmentalists don't like, but that's not popular on the dramatic news media today.

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21 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

No improvement here yet, smoke smell is worse than any other day has been as well.

Well crap.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mark updated his blog saying we're doomed down here until Thursday now. Basically that models are trash at handling this (something that's been made pretty evident). The 10pm Saturday post he made using those models suggesting we would be scouring nicely today was a rare swing and a miss.

Still absolutely socked in downtown pdx. Dead calm too.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Newsom himself said we need to thin out our forests, which is something environmentalists don't like, but that's not popular on the dramatic news media today.

Isn’t there another forum for this sort of political [expletive deleted]?

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Almost here… can’t wait. Hoping it will help.

 

incoming.png

 

It probably won't.    Just some soot rain for you there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, El_Nina said:

No wildfires in the ocean. 

Ironically... the true color satellite image shows a plume of smoke approaching the WA coast from the ocean.   It has wrapped all the way around the low and is coming back inland.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Mark updated his blog saying we're doomed down here until Thursday now. Basically that models are trash at handling this (something that's been made pretty evident). The 10pm Saturday post he made using those models suggesting we would be scouring nicely today was a rare swing and a miss.

Still absolutely socked in downtown pdx. Dead calm too.

Back to being quarantined in the house 

Thanks 2020

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59 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Mark updated his blog saying we're doomed down here until Thursday now. Basically that models are trash at handling this (something that's been made pretty evident). The 10pm Saturday post he made using those models suggesting we would be scouring nicely today was a rare swing and a miss.

Still absolutely socked in downtown pdx. Dead calm too.

Setting himself up for strike two.

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Low. Solar.

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