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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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27 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Can someone tell me how to get to where I left off reading instead of every time I have to go back and thumb through the pages? Since the new upgrade it’s been doing that to me. Thanks!!

I mentioned this issue a few days ago and it seemed some people were experiencing it and some not.

Someone gave a "fix" but it didn't work for me.

 

Low. Solar.

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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3 hours ago, Jesse said:

Antifa obviously.

Seems to be a lot of misconception going around about the source of the fires, that's all. Dolt said "pretty much all the fires in Oregon were human caused" when in fact the majority were either caused by lightning or downed power lines.

Power lines were installed by humans. They probably should have been powered down since a once in 50 year storm was brewing. I haven't read anywhere that confirmed that a single Oregon fire was caused by lightning this go around.

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Today is worse than yesterday here in terms of smoke... but much better than Saturday and Monday.   Sun is shining and it's not a red ball... visibility is not good but I can see the faint outline of some mountains in the distance.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here you go...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-0560000.png

Thank you

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, dolt said:

Power lines were installed by humans. They probably should have been powered down since a once in 50 year storm was brewing. I haven't read anywhere that confirmed that a single Oregon fire was caused by lightning this go around.

Lionshead and Beachie Creek were initially started by lightning on August 16th. Those two were already burning when the wind hit. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Air quality is very bad today. 492 in Silverton, possibly worse here.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Air quality is very bad today. 492 in Silverton, possibly worse here.

Still at 369 here. At this point it just feels like it's going to stick around forever.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Air quality is very bad today. 492 in Silverton, possibly worse here.

158 here and I now consider that a good day!   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Nina looking quite healthy now (top image)... closest recent match is 2017 (bottom image).

 

2020.png

2017.png

This looks more realistic to me.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Also 2017 isn’t the best match because of the +SIOD/+PMM that year, as well as -QBO. A barely functional niña.

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Just now, Phil said:

Also 2017 isn’t the best match because of the +SIOD/+PMM that year, as well as -QBO. A barely functional niña.

 

I just said the Nina regions look very similar... apples to apples on the same WB map.     Not that it was an analog.    That was a very wet winter here overall.   I hope its different this time around.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The equatorial sector of the IPWP is retracting again. The 90’s/00’s cycles were more pronounced given higher amplitude solar cycles at the time.

Also, note the IO response. The behavior of the IPWP system is as if we’ve experienced *two* super niños over the last 5 years. The +IOD/IPWP system in 2019/20 was much closer to what you’d expect in a super niño regime, and global temperatures + circulation regimes reflect that as well.

image.gif

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Satellite shows the smoke is much thicker down in western Oregon compared to up here... you can also see the marine layer still hanging around near Everett up to near Randy's area.

 

sat56.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Lightning holdover fires are a thing as well that a lot of people overlook. Lightning holdover was the official cause of our Bridger fire which was started by a big, wet thunderstorm that passed through here on August 26th but the fire didn't actually begin until Sept. 5th. Apparently the storm caused some tree/shrub to ember without smoking or a flame until the winds kicked up on the 5th. It then blew up and burned 8k acres and 28 homes in 24 hours sadly. 

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 1.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 45.0º

Coldest low: 27.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lionshead and Beachie Creek were initially started by lightning on August 16th. Those two were already burning when the wind hit. 

Do you have a source on the Beachie Creek fire cause? I concede that the Lionshead fire was likely started by lightning, but not the Beachie Creek fire.

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Lightning holdover fires are a thing as well that a lot of people overlook. Lightning holdover was the official cause of our Bridger fire which was started by a big, wet thunderstorm that passed through here on August 26th but the fire didn't actually begin until Sept. 5th. Apparently the storm caused some tree/shrub to ember without smoking or a flame until the winds kicked up on the 5th. It then blew up and burned 8k acres and 28 homes in 24 hours sadly. 

I don’t think some people realize that a lot of lightning fires, particularly on the west side, are never detected and just smolder in place until fall rains do their thing.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think some people realize that a lot of lightning fires, particularly on the west side, are never detected and just smolder in place until fall rains do their thing.  

It's honestly kind of scary to think about it. We're definitely playing with fire (pun intended) every year in the early Fall relying on those rains to come before the winds kick up.

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 1.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 45.0º

Coldest low: 27.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12 minutes ago, dolt said:

Do you have a source on the Beachie Creek fire cause? I concede that the Lionshead fire was likely started by lightning, but not the Beachie Creek fire.

 

The Statesman Journal's early coverage stated it was believed to be a lightning caused fire. However, the official cause has not been determined. It began in extremely rugged off trail area, so it is unlikely it was human caused. 

The fire began on August 16th, same day as Lionshead Fire and there were lightning strikes in that area. Of course it did merge with smaller fires on the night of September 7th which were started by downed powerlines. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The great B&B Complex Fire in the Santiam Pass area back in 2003 smoldered for weeks before exploding. It was actually formed by two lightning strikes which both blew up on the same day 3 weeks later and then merged. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SnowHawks said:

Is a -PDO with a LA Nina good or bad?

In general, the more -PDO atmosphere present, the better for cold during the wet season.

2006-14 was dominated by -PDO, as was 1948-1975, with the 1948-56 period and 1968-72 having exceptionally strong -PDO signatures.

Low. Solar.

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Here’s how 2020 compares to 2017 on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for 9/14 (most recent date available).

Healthier -ENSO, less +PMM, and most importantly, a more consolidated Indo-Pacific Warm Pool anomaly around the Maritime Continent. 

image.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In general, the more -PDO atmosphere present, the better for cold during the wet season.

2006-14 was dominated by -PDO, as was 1948-1975, with the 1948-56 period and 1968-72 having exceptionally strong -PDO signatures.

I think this is an incorrect framing. The PDO signature is an emergent echo (as is the PMM to some extent, though it could be argued the PDO emerges through the PMM).

The PDO signature itself offers no predictive value unless we know the mechanisms behind its existence. Is it merely a residual OHC signature manifesting through re-emergence? Is there a low frequency pattern shift responsible for it? Is it tied to ENSO/WP-forced wave train dynamics?

For reference, there wasn’t any coherent PDO signature at all (positive or negative) during the majority of the 18th/19th centuries, yet that was the coldest period in the PNW in many millennia.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Today is worse than yesterday here in terms of smoke... but much better than Saturday and Monday.   Sun is shining and it's not a red ball... visibility is not good but I can see the faint outline of some mountains in the distance.

Sounds similar to here except I can't see the mountains in the distance at all. Usually a great view of them from this hill near my house.

 

IMG_20200916_142638982_HDR.jpg

Low. Solar.

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I have noticed some models are now saying Nino 3.4 region could bottom out below -1.5C. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think this is an incorrect framing. The PDO signature is an emergent echo (as is the PMM to some extent, though it could be argued the PDO emerges through the PMM).

The PDO signature itself offers no predictive value unless we know the mechanisms behind its existence. Is it merely a residual OHC signature manifesting through re-emergence? Is there a low frequency pattern shift responsible for it? Is it tied to ENSO/WP-forced wave train dynamics?

For reference, there wasn’t any coherent PDO signature at all (positive or negative) during the majority of the 18th/19th centuries, yet that was the coldest period in the PNW in many millennia.

The 18th/19th century were obviously a different climate period, and we didn't have anywhere near the technology to measure what was going on.

As you know from previous discussions, I agree that the PDO is an echo of larger forces at work. But the question I answered was simple - what is better to have (for winter weather weenies)?

 

Low. Solar.

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31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The 18th/19th century were obviously a different climate period, and we didn't have anywhere near the technology to measure what was going on.

As you know from previous discussions, I agree that the PDO is an echo of larger forces at work. But the question I answered was simple - what is better to have (for winter weather weenies)?

 

1) True, but we can reconstruct the PDO via multiple proxies that reflect precipitation patterns, nutrient-rich upwelling, strength of the eastern boundary current, air temperatures, etc. It’s not as uncertain as you think. It’s a lower resolution picture for sure, but that’s not a significant problem on most timescales.

2) As for seasonal connections, I think it really really really really really matters how the PDO signature is being produced, since the stability of that circulation pattern (or lack there-of) can be state dependent. For instance, you have excellent +PDO winters in the PNW such as 2018/19, 2013/14, 1972/73, 1990/91, etc, as well as a multitude of -PDO winters that were total duds, such as 1974/75, 1999/00, 2012/13, etc (all of which were also -ENSO).

 

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

1) True, but we can reconstruct the PDO via multiple proxies that reflect precipitation patterns, nutrient-rich upwelling, strength of the eastern boundary current, air temperatures, etc. It’s not as uncertain as you think. It’s a lower resolution picture for sure, but that’s not a significant problem on most timescales.

2) As for seasonal connections, I think it really really really really really matters how the PDO signature is being produced, since the stability of that circulation pattern (or lack there-of) can be state dependent. For instance, you have excellent +PDO winters in the PNW such as 2018/19, 2013/14, 1972/73, 1990/91, etc, as well as a multitude of -PDO winters that were total duds, such as 1974/75, 1999/00, 2012/13, etc (all of which were also -ENSO).

 

All that being said, it doesn't change my original answer to the question: in general, more -PDO is a good thing. It demonstrates an atmospheric tendency towards greater blocking in the NE Pacific.

-ENSO obviously tends strongly towards -PDO, but what I look at it is the strength of the PDO signal relative to ENSO. More than a couple of the dud -PDO winters did not have very strong -PDO relative to the strength of -ENSO. And the -PDO often was not as persistent as the periods I mentioned earlier.

 

Low. Solar.

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37 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Thanks guys for the kind words.  It's been said here many other times, but cancer sucks.  The crazy thing is that my friend is the one cheering me up as he turns this awful diagnosis into a series of funny stories.  Like going to the dentist 2 days before his diagnosis and then going back to the dentist 2 weeks after, and being asked "has there been any changes to your medical history since you're last visit?" He spun that into a hilarious story....incredibly nice, humble, amazing person...not a mean bone in his body....nobody should get cancer, but him getting this diagnosis is a screaming reminder that life is not fair, and life is too short.

My job situation sucks, but have to remind myself its nothing compared to what my friend and the people in the fire zones are going through....maybe it will give me the opportunity to move down near Mossman, he can't be the only one on this forum soaking up all that Skagit/Snohomish county line convergence zone goodness.  I'm hoping to stay in Whatcom County, but if that's not possible, I've definitely got my eye on his part of the state!

Thinking of you man. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Still socked in the smoke in Springfield. Currently 76F after a high of 78F. AQI still over 300.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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PDX NWS

Most hi-res guidance paints fairly decent instability developing in advance of this wave (anywhere from 500 to 2000 j/kg depending on the model and location) along with strong south flow above the inversion layer and 40-50 knots of deep layer shear withing the cloud-bearing layer.  Obviously, this kind of kinematic parameter space would be supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of strong and gusty winds with storm motions to the north between 35-45 mph. It remains to be seen if we will realize the full potential that appears to be within the realm of possibilities, but regardless of whether storms reach severe levels, gusty and erratic winds, lightning and locally heavy downpours are expected with any of the stronger storms from late Thursday afternoon well into Thursday night. While those elements may have detrimental effects on firefighting efforts (especially the winds), beneficial effects should be rain and wind assisting in mixing out the extremely poor air quality.

 

Tornado forecast confirmed. 

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47 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still socked in the smoke in Springfield. Currently 76F after a high of 78F. AQI still over 300.

There's hope! Although it's still balmy at 73º, low clouds moved in here with a change of air and I can see across the valley for the first time since I arrived last Thursday! Same shot direction as yesterday's:

 

200916_air_002.jpg

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Just now, Eujunga said:

There's hope! Although it's still balmy at 73º, low clouds moved in here with a change of air and I can see across the valley for the first time since I arrived last Thursday! Same shot direction as yesterday's:

 

200916_air_002.jpg

 

Wow... that air quality looks spectacular right now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We are now finally down to 150 AQI. Light southerly breeze. Thank goodness!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We are now finally down to 150 AQI. Light southerly breeze. Thank goodness!!!

That is awesome.   :)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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