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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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Steady drizzle now. 62F.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...  

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I have a proposed short term weather contest:  Have some roofing on a project near the stadiums near downtown seattle. Think it will be safe tomorrow from rain at least morning to early afternoon?

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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Have some roofing on a project near the stadiums near downtown seattle. Think it will be safe tomorrow from rain at least morning to early afternoon?

Probably not totally dry... here is 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. tomorrow:

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-1150400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

No, I don’t believe there’s evidence for that. Factors external/peripheral to ENSO are most likely to be responsible for that difference.

For instance, several of the better PNW winters in recent memory were El Niños (18/19, 06/07, 72/73, 68/69, etc), but that doesn’t prove El Niño favors such outcomes more generally. In fact, the opposite is (usually) true.

What was ‘16-‘17? That year was by far the best year for cold and snow here and in the valley from what I remember. QBO? 2nd year Niña? Just the persistent cold and snow here was something out of Alaska. 

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31 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

What was ‘16-‘17? That year was by far the best year for cold and snow here and in the valley from what I remember. QBO? 2nd year Niña? Just the persistent cold and snow here was something out of Alaska. 

Weak Niña/+QBO/-IOD with an anomalous early winter vortex disruption as well.

Stronger La Niña this year, but 2016/17 is not a bad analog.

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27 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Up to 0.04" on the day here. Glad not to be completely shut out!

Stations here in Springfield are generally reporting 0.1” so far.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Weak Niña/+QBO/-IOD with an anomalous early winter vortex disruption as well.

Stronger La Niña this year, but 2016/17 is not a bad analog.

That was a very wet and mild fall. I believe our latest first freeze on record and wettest October on record. We had over 17” of rain in October 2016.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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In my research, at least in this area. A wet fall is often a very good sign of a good winter on the way. It’s not a 💯, fall 2012 was very wet and that winter was pretty dull. 2016 on the other hand was a classic example. But at least in my area, fall precip is a better predictor than temperature. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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On the other hand just because the first week or two of October is dry/warm really has no bearing on how the latter half of the month or November play out. October 2006 was very dry, things changed quickly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Off topic and not exactly the hardest thing in the world to do but I have been accepted to Montana State University. They sent me an early application with no essay required and I filled it out.

Congrats!  my son is a junior there and absolutely loves it.  He is a physics major and just got a research project that deals with a major discovery regarding black holes earlier this year (don't ask me what, its over my head.)  Be sure that you look in to the WUE, and if you have any questions, let me know.  Have you decided on a major?  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the other hand just because the first week or two of October is dry/warm really has no bearing on how the latter half of the month or November play out. October 2006 was very dry, things changed quickly. 

I remember really liking the pattern progression that month. 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the other hand just because the first week or two of October is dry/warm really has no bearing on how the latter half of the month or November play out. October 2006 was very dry, things changed quickly. 

November 2006 is number 1 in my book for exciting weather for month number 11.


#2 being 1985. 

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19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I remember really liking the pattern progression that month. 

I know there was a major cold snap at the end of October too. Eugene hit 17 on 10/31/06.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like SLE only hit 61 today. Only made it to 56 here after a balmy low of 51.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

It's a possibility for sure. In state is still most likely at this point, but MSU offers good scholarships from what I've heard and is a WUE school. Will have to wait and see.

Also got an early application request from Northern Arizona University. Flagstaff is a great geographical/climate location but I've heard it's not the best school? Either way the application fee is waived so I really lose nothing by applying.

I suppose I should go back and combine this with the other post that I just did but I am being lazy.....I can't really comment on Northern Arizona, but MSU is amazing.   Don't let the application process fool you.  They rank among ivy league schools in terms of the number of Goldwater and Rhodes scholars.  They have a goal of every undergrad getting published by the time the graduate.  Also, for the engineering program, I met a guy who runs one of the biggest construction companies in Portland, he takes interns from all the PNW engineering schools, but he said the MSU engineers have a quality about them that really makes them a step above students from the other schools.

They encourage students to take 15-17 credits, with 2-3 of those credits being an outdoors elective.  Fair warning, being in one of the "hunting meccas" of North America, they do have a process for students to bring firearms.  It is a very strict, but smart process, but there were still a number of parents and students freaking out about that...safe to say they were all "out of staters."  They would rather be open and have a process for it than to risk students trying to sneak them into dorms or leave them in their cars.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I suppose I should go back and combine this with the other post that I just did but I am being lazy.....I can't really comment on Northern Arizona, but MSU is amazing.   Don't let the application process fool you.  They rank among ivy league schools in terms of the number of Goldwater and Rhodes scholars.  They have a goal of every undergrad getting published by the time the graduate.  Also, for the engineering program, I met a guy who runs one of the biggest construction companies in Portland, he takes interns from all the PNW engineering schools, but he said the MSU engineers have a quality about them that really makes them a step above students from the other schools.

They encourage students to take 15-17 credits, with 2-3 of those credits being an outdoors elective.  Fair warning, being in one of the "hunting meccas" of North America, they do have a process for students to bring firearms.  It is a very strict, but smart process, but there were still a number of parents and students freaking out about that...safe to say they were all "out of staters."  They would rather be open and have a process for it than to risk students trying to sneak them into dorms or leave them in their cars.  

 

 

I went to college in Oklahoma. There were a lot of hunters on campus. Never bothered me. I remember one of my teammates and his friend cleaning ducks behind our residence hall, and one day after practice I noticed hogs on the back of a teammates

truck he had shot before practice and had stuffed with ice so he could take care of afterwards. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Pretty weak daily rainfall record broken at SEA today... now +1.28 on the month and close to 5 inches above normal for the year.

 

sea456.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty weak daily rainfall record broken at SEA today... now +1.28 on the month and close to 5 inches above normal for the year.

 

sea456.png

Going to end the water year above average too. 39.82” here would be the driest year on record by about 12”.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We're gonna be like 17" below normal for our water year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Super anecdotal statement here, but this winter has a feeling to it. Like, almost ominous in a way. Could be the beginning of something great. Or I ate too much for dinner.

I have had that feeling too. The way 2020 has been going I could see a January 2008 redux happening up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Super anecdotal statement here, but this winter has a feeling to it. Like, almost ominous in a way. Could be the beginning of something great. Or I ate too much for dinner.

Jesse warned you to stay away from Taco Bell...

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RIP Detroit, OR 

9CFFB10D-F18A-41B1-941E-AFF32B99AB48.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Super anecdotal statement here, but this winter has a feeling to it. Like, almost ominous in a way. Could be the beginning of something great. Or I ate too much for dinner.

And in all seriousness...I also believe this winter will be absolutely epic. And for us weather nerds it will be a huge distraction from what an absolute sh*t show 2020 has been. 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have had that feeling too. The way 2020 has been going I could see a January 2008 redux happening up here. 

That was a nice quickie. I remember numerous stupid college students driving in that. Was like 5"-6" in some spots and in other spots it was like 2" it was weird.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And in all seriousness...I also believe this winter will be absolutely epic. And for us weather nerds it will be a huge distraction from what an absolute sh*t show 2020 has been. 

And the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl?   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Florida has more smoke from the western fires than Washington and Oregon right now...

 

trc1_int_f00.png

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Really coming down out there. 
 

 

51C88BE5-38BC-4B67-B2DF-5C43183D87F5.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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59F and cloudy with the occasional bit of drizzle. Otherwise pleasant. We’ve had a tenth of an inch of rain today. Better than nothing and we are above normal rainfall for the month on the east side of town.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Up to 1.31” on the day. 4.48” on the month. Solidly wet September. Though we have only had measurable precip on 4 days. And had all come since last Friday. The good news about the mild weather on the way is we will have a fall green up this year. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

They encourage students to take 15-17 credits, with 2-3 of those credits being an outdoors elective.  Fair warning, being in one of the "hunting meccas" of North America, they do have a process for students to bring firearms.  It is a very strict, but smart process, but there were still a number of parents and students freaking out about that...safe to say they were all "out of staters."  They would rather be open and have a process for it than to risk students trying to sneak them into dorms or leave them in their cars.  

Utah State had a similar policy in the 1980s (and probably to this day). There never was any trouble from guns during the years I attended.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

59F and cloudy with the occasional bit of drizzle. Otherwise pleasant. We’ve had a tenth of an inch of rain today. Better than nothing and we are above normal rainfall for the month on the east side of town.

Managed to wring out 0.22" here, which doesn't make up for getting skunked in last week's thunderstorms, but is better than nothing when heading into yet another warm, dry period.

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I suppose I should go back and combine this with the other post that I just did but I am being lazy.....I can't really comment on Northern Arizona, but MSU is amazing.   Don't let the application process fool you.  They rank among ivy league schools in terms of the number of Goldwater and Rhodes scholars.  They have a goal of every undergrad getting published by the time the graduate.  Also, for the engineering program, I met a guy who runs one of the biggest construction companies in Portland, he takes interns from all the PNW engineering schools, but he said the MSU engineers have a quality about them that really makes them a step above students from the other schools.

They encourage students to take 15-17 credits, with 2-3 of those credits being an outdoors elective.  Fair warning, being in one of the "hunting meccas" of North America, they do have a process for students to bring firearms.  It is a very strict, but smart process, but there were still a number of parents and students freaking out about that...safe to say they were all "out of staters."  They would rather be open and have a process for it than to risk students trying to sneak them into dorms or leave them in their cars.  

 

 

Good to know. I’m fine with guns. I’d love to try hunting sometime (parents aren’t keen on it) and I’m pro-2A as well.

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My grass is exploding with growth. 

Mine has been too. Been time to clip some of it. 😉

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Utah State had a similar policy in the 1980s (and probably to this day). There never was any trouble from guns during the years I attended.

I think the only trouble that MSU had was a ND in one of the dorms that killed a student many years ago, which is what brought about the current policy/procedures.  I think there may have been a couple of school shootings around the country in the 2-3 months before I was there, which may have heightened sensitivity, but still....gotta remember where you are at.

 

 

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Anyway back to weather. 61/55 spread here today for the coolest high of the season so far. Picked up 1.10” of rainfall with numerous downpours and areas of banding throughout the day.

We were really fortunate to score today’s cool and wet system before embarking on yet another long much above average and dry period.
 

 

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