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Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season


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When was the last year we had a persistent Aleutian low with an active STJ?

2009-10 was the last time this occurred on a persistent scale. Before that, it was 2006-07, and 2002-03.

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If you're replying to me, I'm not sure on precip yet..a lot of things still need to be worked out.

 

Big wild card this year is the Sun from September-November..very crucial in the -QBO to maintain a healthy upward-propagating wave train and O^3 flux into the polar stratosphere via the Brewer-Dobson circulation..and whether or not this occurs will is determined by both the Sun via processes in the upper atmosphere (SAO, Thermal Winds, EU Flux) and tropical forcing (ENSO/AAM/MJO)...both processes interact with one another as well. We have the tropics on our side now, but the upper atmospheric response to the new forcing state is not set in stone yet.

 

If the Sun remains quiet, analogs like 1968-69 become the front runners, giving PNWers hope...if the Sun decides to pull another stunt like in late 2011, it may lead to a wall-to-wall warm winter in the west +PNA/+EPO, elongated wave train in the shear-zone)

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If you're replying to me, .....

No. I hadn't been.

 

Just dropping in my general conjecture where regarding/ considering the main topic theme here.

 

 Repeated here, connected originally to something other that I'd posted over in the main PWN section.  Jesse had asked me how I'd thought things might look this fall, if where looking more specifically at the "lower 48"....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/573-pacific-nw-july-2014-discussion/page-22&do=findComment&comment=30322

 

Here's my response to his having asked this question, repeated here again, for general reference sake. ...

 

" ... I'm looking at cold consolidating better north, more generally. .. Warmer south.  You figure the precip.."

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I was referring more towards the winter of '77/'78 being a weak El Nino and the similarities to this upcoming winter's ENSO.  The SE ridge may or may not develop as much this coming winter.  It will also depend on how much blocking develops over Greenland as well.

 

I agree with you that we will have to wait until October/November and see how the weather pattern sets up.

according to andrew at the weather centre that a southeast ridge is a possibilty for this upcoming winterand also gavs weather vids said that the nao will be positve this winter because like andrew at the weather centre has said yesterday that last winter lack of blocking over greenland didn't caused the nao to go negative.

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are always cooler in the eastern Niño regions. The Antarctic circumpolar current (strongest current in the world) pushes cold water up along the coast of western coast of South America. Therefore you can have colder SST’s in the eastern Niño regions with a more positive SST anomaly. The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology decreased the chances down to 50 percent for an El Niño developing this year and only 5/8 models show the El Niño developing at all. NOAA should start to back off during their next monthly update. The models that still show still show an El Niño developing will fail because they were modeled for a warm PDO and do not realize the coupling does not occur during a cold PDO. The CFSv2, JAMSTEC, and etc., originally had near moderate El Niño level warmth during today’s time frame. Here in reality the last updated weekly averaged SST in Niño region 3.4 is -.1 Celsius. It is getting quite humorous watching the predicted warm up being pushed back months. We are seeing some of the effects of the record Antarctic sea ice extent and area. As the anomalous cold water continues to be transported north and west we continue to see cooling in the Niño regions.
(fromaccuweatherfourms)We will continue to see further cooling over the next week as anomalously cold SST drift westward

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are always cooler in the eastern Niño regions. The Antarctic circumpolar current (strongest current in the world) pushes cold water up along the coast of western coast of South America. Therefore you can have colder SST’s in the eastern Niño regions with a more positive SST anomaly. The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology decreased the chances down to 50 percent for an El Niño developing this year and only 5/8 models show the El Niño developing at all. NOAA should start to back off during their next monthly update. The models that still show still show an El Niño developing will fail because they were modeled for a warm PDO and do not realize the coupling does not occur during a cold PDO. The CFSv2, JAMSTEC, and etc., originally had near moderate El Niño level warmth during today’s time frame. Here in reality the last updated weekly averaged SST in Niño region 3.4 is -.1 Celsius. It is getting quite humorous watching the predicted warm up being pushed back months. We are seeing some of the effects of the record Antarctic sea ice extent and area. As the anomalous cold water continues to be transported north and west we continue to see cooling in the Niño regions.

(fromaccuweatherfourms)

Nice find.  In line with what I believed would happen back in late Winter/Early Spring.  The Pacific really needs to align itself correctly to form an El Nino in a Cold PDO cycle.  It has happened before, but the physical drivers this year have been unfavorable.

 

The point about the Antarctic Sea Ice is very important.  Record Sea Ice Content down by the South Pole is a key indicator as to why cooler waters are eroding any warm waters that upwell.  WxBell is still forecasting a weak El Nino, but I'm still doubting that happens.  A La Nada is very well possible.

 

The CFSv2 forecast back in April had an El Nino already in full bloom by today.  Goes to show you how off the models have been determining what will happen in the central Pacific. 

 

That being said, I'm counting down the days when it will be cold and snowy in our region!  We had similarities back in the late 70's of blockbuster winters back to back.  We will see a repeat this year.

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Nice find.  In line with what I believed would happen back in late Winter/Early Spring.  The Pacific really needs to align itself correctly to form an El Nino in a Cold PDO cycle.  It has happened before, but the physical drivers this year have been unfavorable.

 

The point about the Antarctic Sea Ice is very important.  Record Sea Ice Content down by the South Pole is a key indicator as to why cooler waters are eroding any warm waters that upwell.  WxBell is still forecasting a weak El Nino, but I'm still doubting that happens.  A La Nada is very well possible.

 

The CFSv2 forecast back in April had an El Nino already in full bloom by today.  Goes to show you how off the models have been determining what will happen in the central Pacific. 

 

That being said, I'm counting down the days when it will be cold and snowy in our region!  We had similarities back in the late 70's of blockbuster winters back to back.  We will see a repeat this year.

thanks i found that on the accuweather fourms and i also found out that a cold pdo means a la nina if we continue this cold pdo well in 2015 we could have a la nina for next year.

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Remember how cold the Arctic summer was last year???  I think it broke a record that dated back to the mid/late 50's.  This summer may rival that, or even beat it!  It hasn't hit normal yet this year and doesn't look like it will.

 

As we head into August, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago region of North America will be filling up with below normal temps and some chilly air will start working into the region up there.  As the seasonal changes begin first up north, it will be interesting to see how quick they start this year.

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Nice find.  In line with what I believed would happen back in late Winter/Early Spring.  The Pacific really needs to align itself correctly to form an El Nino in a Cold PDO cycle.  It has happened before, but the physical drivers this year have been unfavorable.

 

The point about the Antarctic Sea Ice is very important.  Record Sea Ice Content down by the South Pole is a key indicator as to why cooler waters are eroding any warm waters that upwell.  WxBell is still forecasting a weak El Nino, but I'm still doubting that happens.  A La Nada is very well possible.

 

The CFSv2 forecast back in April had an El Nino already in full bloom by today.  Goes to show you how off the models have been determining what will happen in the central Pacific. 

 

That being said, I'm counting down the days when it will be cold and snowy in our region!  We had similarities back in the late 70's of blockbuster winters back to back.  We will see a repeat this year.

in my opinion that the models are wrong all the time on this and i have learned a while back that the models can be wrong all because of the temprature and the wind so that means that the el nino they have forecasted is a distant memory and we will have a la nada and we will have a repeat this winter also iaccording to australian goverment bureau of meteorology that the next update the 12th of this month(and also according to watts up with that that the odds are in favor la nada for this up coming winter and they are also saying that we could have a la nina for next year).

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was looking at the weather centre and andrew over there has just said that the artic sea ice will play a big role and the odds for a colder winter has increased so that means that we could be looking at the ao to go negative for this winter(and noticed from the weather centre's facebook page that a southeast ridge has formed so that means people in the chicago metro area needs to pay attention to the weather for this upcoming winter).

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after looking at the latest enso forecast from whats up with that's website that we are currently in neutral state with the enso region so the el nino is a no show this year and for next year as well.

 

So we already know that El Nino is a no show for next year??  Some purty good forecasters I'd say

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Here's my take on things, all in summary:

 

- El Niño is here in terms of the MEI/AAM..SSTs will get there too but it will take time

 

- Any effects from the Arctic ice are minute and/or speculative

 

- There is no SE ridge right now, and if one does develop it'll probably be a temporary result of intraseasonal tropical forcings

 

- Biggest unknown for winter is solar...the quieter the Sun, the better, particularly for the western US/Plains

 

- The -QBO essentially guarantees a free-willed tropical wave-train, so the waves/spacing over the NH will be chaotic and unstable...essentially, the pattern should change frequently throughout the winter, in some respects

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A couple more week of this cooling and we may have to change the name of this thread to La Nina watch. The monthly update is this Thursday and I expect NOAA will start backing off their El Nino idea.
Here is the change in sea surface temperatures from last weeks update:

Nino 1-2: -1.0 C

Nino 3.0: -.3 C

Nino 3.4: 0 C

Nino 4: +.1 C
(also if this keeps up then they will have to change this to a la nina watch).

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We will need to keep an eye out on the intraseasonal wind changes in the Pacific that can allow for westerlies to kick in.  If we head into September and the SST are still about the same, then chances are an El Nino may not form.

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I really would wait and see what the August run of the JMA model shows later this month.  It really has been the only model that wants to paint an El Nino, modiki style, which is normally a cold/snowy Central/Eastern U.S.  The JMA has done extremely well forecasting in the long range.  If it starts changing course, then all bets are off.

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No kidding.  A few months ago, the media was all over "Super Nino."

this proves that the media cannot be trusted that we all knew that the super nino was a bust right from the start.

 

I think it just shows that we have a long way to go with ENSO forecasting.  There were some highly respected mets thinking that we would be looking at a strong nino this year.  My opinion now is that we are looking at neutral or weak nino...could go either way.  As Phil mentioned, the sea surface temperatures may make a late push as we head through fall...but it remains to be seen.

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

you are right tom i found an article from the weather centre and andrew over there had it up that from the midwest to the east coast gets in the cold and snowy winter weather and the greatlakes cutters and the panhandle hooks as well(he also that the storm track goes up the eastrn sea board and to keep the west dry).

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

Tom, what months is this for?

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

according to the brazilian metograms that it is also has chicago to start cooling off after october so the metogram and this model is saying the same thing.

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Sign of things to come for the winter? Things are changing in the pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

Even if we do see a weak El Nino in central pacific (Modiki), so long the warmer waters stay in the central pacific, it bodes well for a cold snowy central/eastern CONUS.  The latest El Nino that you can use as an analog was 2009/10.  Do you remember the Snowmagedon year???  The Midwest faired pretty well with a 50"+ season and there was a lot of sustained cold.  The only difference this year is we have the warm pool of waters in the NE Pacific that will be a huge factor to bring down more severe cold.

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Even if we do see a weak El Nino in central pacific (Modiki), so long the warmer waters stay in the central pacific, it bodes well for a cold snowy central/eastern CONUS.  The latest El Nino that you can use as an analog was 2009/10.  Do you remember the Snowmagedon year???  The Midwest faired pretty well with a 50"+ season and there was a lot of sustained cold.  The only difference this year is we have the warm pool of waters in the NE Pacific that will be a huge factor to bring down more severe cold.

that's true but if we get any storms that will be big snowstorms that can be big blizzards and after that have severe cold on top of that and with a (modiki) el nino and the warm pool over the northeast pacific so that means that a ridge will set up over the west us and the warmer waters by greenland.

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Even with the latest Upwelling of warm waters in the pacific, the easterly winds could still do what happened before in early Spring and erode the warm waters from the cooler waters to the southeast.  Time will tell if this warm water sustains itself and if the intraseasonal wind change happens.

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