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February 2014 in the PNW

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#5201
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 11:49 AM

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This evening could get interesting with the lifted index dropping to around zero and a nice cold pool behind the front. This could easily produce a fairly vigorous squall near the back edge of the front with gusty winds and hail. This certainly looks more interesting that the other fronts this week due to the cold air entering the region.

Also worth noting some places could flirt with some wet snow tomorrow morning. A front will quickly overrun the resident cold air mass.

Def along my thoughts last night here - http://www.theweathe...ric-river-hits/


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#5202
Jesse

Posted 15 February 2014 - 12:09 PM

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12z Euro is definitely an improvement over the last few runs.
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All roads lead to more weather.


#5203
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 12:29 PM

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I labeled the trough axis with the red line ... Also the pink box would be the location of the 'sweep' of upper divergence on this axis ... which is where the better thunderstorm dynamics would be if there was such a thing as a 'thunderstorm watch box' up there.  I know I have them for down here but that's about the box location for later on -

 

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#5204
Weather101

Posted 15 February 2014 - 12:32 PM

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We could see 60 mph winds today! Let the storm begin !
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3

#5205
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 12:34 PM

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We could see 60 mph winds today! Let the storm begin !

My question is ... with the wind storms in the PAC NW and a squall-line with thunderstorms moving through ... wouldn't that count as a severe thunderstorm for those that get it... probably mainly coast of WA and NW OR where storms will be.


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#5206
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 12:54 PM

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Where do you get thunderstorms from let alone severe? 


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5207
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 12:55 PM

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How how did you get the title "professional met"?  Because you aren't one.


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5208
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:04 PM

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There is a pretty clear sign for troughing around the first of March. The operational kind of goes off on its own there at the end though...

 

MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png


Snowfall

 

2014-15: 0.5"

 

11/29: 0.5"

11/14: T

 

2013-14: 11.75"

2012-13: 16.75"

2011-12: 98.5"

 

I am now a Dad to 3 daughters under the age of 2. 

 

1/27/2013

12/17/2014 X 2


#5209
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:05 PM

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My question is ... with the wind storms in the PAC NW and a squall-line with thunderstorms moving through ... wouldn't that count as a severe thunderstorm for those that get it... probably mainly coast of WA and NW OR where storms will be.

 

You should come up here for a winter storm.    Its much less enjoyable and much more miserable than our summer storms.    Think soaking wet and cold with very dark skies.   



#5210
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:06 PM

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How how did you get the title "professional met"?  Because you aren't one.

Yeah, I kinda am.  Professional Met is someone who makes a living off of forecast the weather and I make a living with my site, my clients, and different media outlets who use my forecasts on a contract basis. 

You also have two posts, you just signed up ... Do not start trouble with me ... Mods need to ban you unless you decide to play nice, kid.  Like I say all the time ... i NEVER start fights first ... I defend myself against trolls like you.  Post more and don't just sign-up on here to belittle ME


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#5211
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:13 PM

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Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain.  So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe?   Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.  


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5212
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:13 PM

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You should come up here for a winter storm.    Its much less enjoyable and much more miserable than our summer storms.    Think soaking wet and cold with very dark skies.   

I bet.  Been wanting to take a drive to experience both a winter and a wind storm up there.  Better than what we have down here that's for sure.


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#5213
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:15 PM

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Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain.  So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe?   Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.  

See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you.  I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ...  PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ...

Your turn ...


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#5214
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:18 PM

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I bet.  Been wanting to take a drive to experience both a winter and a wind storm up there.  Better than what we have down here that's for sure.

 

 

For a little while.       



#5215
MossMan

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:19 PM

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Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain. So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe? Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.



#5216
TheNewBigMack

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:19 PM

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Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain.  So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe?   Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.

There is nothing to win or lose here, which just shows you're obviously here for the wrong reasons. You signed up just to harass a member, which highlights your lack of maturity. Move along.

#5217
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:20 PM

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my turn...

Not enough warming aloft.


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5218
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:20 PM

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Kevin has been posting interesting and topical stuff on here since his return.   His analysis has been great... and informative.   

 

Do we have to get into this other crap?     Just let him post.



#5219
MossMan

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:20 PM

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NWS Seattle is even mentioning T-Storms are a possibility on the coast and even inland.

#5220
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:21 PM

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I am talking weather.  I asked him where he got the idea of storms.  It's not my fault everyone is upset about it.  I just refuse to drink his Kool aid.  


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5221
East Dubzz

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:21 PM

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If an inbox message bothers you, report it, do not post it on here for everyone to see. Thank you.

#5222
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:21 PM

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I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.  Only if Kevin does the same.


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5223
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:22 PM

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And do you blame me?  I take things to PM when being harassed.  I don't visually open in on the forum like before.  You posting a PM clearly means you don't understand the defnition of personal message.  You had TWO posts.  Your first post was against me.  Clearly you are one of those envious failed weather people who need to focus on building your own career in weather like I hae an a little less time following those who are more successful than you just to troll. 

I'm not going to open fire on you in the public forum, but I will state what I think of you trolls over PM.  It's simple ... Do not address me online with BS where I need to defend myself.  I'm too old for this crap and have been doing it for 18 years.


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#5224
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:23 PM

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I am talking weather.  I asked him where he got the idea of storms.  It's not my fault everyone is upset about it.  I just refuse to drink his Kool aid.  

 

 

He did respond... and with pertinent details:

 

"See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you.  I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ...  PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ..."



#5225
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:24 PM

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Now let's do a mature conversation and go back and forth on why you think thunderstorms won't be possible and why I do.  No one is right ... no one is wrong ... But I will listen to reasoning and when it happens it'll be a learning experience for the person who was wrong ... No harm done.


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#5226
umadbro

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:28 PM

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I just don't think you should call someone a kid out in the open and then send a PM like a kid to that person.  Hypocritical.  I told you why.  Storms won't happen.  You told me why they will.  I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.  I have no problem being wrong.  It happens.  At the same time.  Calling me a "failed met" or "envious is BS.  I am focused on building a career in meteorology.  I plan to get a degree eventually.  I'm just taking my sweet time because it's a bit expensive.  And just because you get paid to "forecast" doesn't make you a professional.  That's a slap in the face and total disrespect to guys and gals who spend the money time and years to get degrees in this stuff.


KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5227
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:29 PM

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Here is the PVA thought.  I used the 500mb vort on the COD website.  This is the RAP.  You can see the upper divergence by the spread in heights on and ahead of the trough axis.  But there is something else.  Notice the blue/purple over Western WA.  That's low vorticity.  Three hours later on the right image you can see its now red, or higher vorticity.  This change from low to high values is called POSITIVE vorticity advection (PVA) ... The positive vorticity numbers are 'advecting' or advancing inward.  This sharp move from low to high like that signifies some pretty nice upper dynamics in play.  

 

forum15.jpg


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#5228
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:33 PM

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I won't argue about my field of work in the private or commercial industry.  Those who got degrees, that is good ... But I started my own venture because I saw how saturated the field would be.  I know ones with met degrees who still work at fast food joints.  It's a saturated business and with the predictive models today, more are going in because it's EASIER than in the 90s.  So I do my own forecasting for clients and also full time on my site, which equals a full-time income.   You don't need a degree to have a brain in this field.  Many on this forum I've seen are just as good if not smarter than those who hold a degree.  Degrees are for people whom want to get hired ... Not for people who want to own their own business in this field... 

See Bill Gates ...


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#5229
IbrChris

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:45 PM

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I won't argue about my field of work in the private or commercial industry.  Those who got degrees, that is good ... But I started my own venture because I saw how saturated the field would be.  I know ones with met degrees who still work at fast food joints.  It's a saturated business and with the predictive models today, more are going in because it's EASIER than in the 90s.  So I do my own forecasting for clients and also full time on my site, which equals a full-time income.   You don't need a degree to have a brain in this field.  Many on this forum I've seen are just as good if not smarter than those who hold a degree.  Degrees are for people whom want to get hired ... Not for people who want to own their own business in this field... 

See Bill Gates ...

 

LOTS of jobs for entry-level mets coming up with NWS beginning a hiring binge shortly (to fill spots vacated by attrition last several years). Anticipated couple hundred openings with openings at most offices. Also ATC (Air Traffic Control) has issued a rare call for general public applicants (must be under age 31) which is another great career path for meteorologists.

It's actually looking like a decent job market for degreed mets for the next couple years.



#5230
epiceast

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:45 PM

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For a little while.    Gets old real fast.

 

I have friend on facebook from Phoenix who is visiting Seattle this week.     His first posts were about the 'fun' rain and wind.  Today he is posting about happily leaving this afternoon for home because its pretty miserable here.        

LOL. It wasn't even that bad here, I remember quite a bit of blue sky.


 

Read more, post less.

 

 


#5231
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:45 PM

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KOLM (Olympia, WA) -

Before front 700-500 lapse rates are 6.4 c/km
Afer front it's 7.4 c/km ...

Front hits at 2z so along the front would be around 7.1 c/km so not bad at all.

Lapse rates are acceptable as well. 


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#5232
Weather101

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:46 PM

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This forum is funny
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3

#5233
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:48 PM

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LOTS of jobs for entry-level mets coming up with NWS beginning a hiring binge shortly (to fill spots vacated by attrition last several years). Anticipated couple hundred openings with openings at most offices. Also ATC (Air Traffic Control) has issued a rare call for general public applicants (must be under age 31) which is another great career path for meteorologists.

It's actually looking like a decent job market for degreed mets for the next couple years.

Well that's good for those that are waiting to get in.  However I really enjoy the freedom without a boss to put forecasts out.  It's just what style of work I enjoy doing but some don't so that's good news for those who have been waiting.  NWS has over 400 positions they haven't filled yet.  Some offices are understaffed, in fact most are ... That's why I offer my custom alerts to my clients and viewers.  I can help fill those gaps in because I don't need a major budget to inform them. 

 


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#5234
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:49 PM

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LOL. It wasn't even that bad here, I remember quite a bit of blue sky.

 

I know... it was a pretty good week overall.



#5235
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:49 PM

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LOL. It wasn't even that bad here, I remember quite a bit of blue sky.

 

I know... it was a pretty good week overall.



#5236
IbrChris

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:50 PM

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He did respond... and with pertinent details:

 

"See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you.  I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ...  PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ..."

 

It's a typical springtime garden-variety tstorm setup for the PNW, one we see a dozen-plus times every late winter and spring. 500 mb cold pool looks reasonable, not overly impressive. I've seen -35c at 500 mb over top a surface temp of +10c producing LI of about -2 in a good PNW spring tstorm setup, this one will probably yield a LI around 0. This is decent for a few rumbles from some low-topped Cb's in the post-frontal airmass but nothing organized or noteworthy.



#5237
Poulsbo Snowman

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:53 PM

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KOLM (Olympia, WA) -

Before front 700-500 lapse rates are 6.4 c/km
Afer front it's 7.4 c/km ...

Front hits at 2z so along the front would be around 7.1 c/km so not bad at all.

Lapse rates are acceptable as well. 

 

 

That will absolutely get us into the realm of thunder possibility.  That's probably actually quite steep for this time of year.



#5238
IbrChris

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:53 PM

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Well that's good for those that are waiting to get in.  However I really enjoy the freedom without a boss to put forecasts out.  It's just what style of work I enjoy doing but some don't so that's good news for those who have been waiting.  NWS has over 400 positions they haven't filled yet.  Some offices are understaffed, in fact most are ... That's why I offer my custom alerts to my clients and viewers.  I can help fill those gaps in because I don't need a major budget to inform them. 

 

 

True. Those who have the entrepreneurial spirit, more power to them. I have a friend at NWS pushing me to join them, although minus the pension my current job pays as good or better and my benefits are also a bit better than what NWS offers (medical, retirement etc minus the gov't pension).



#5239
Weather101

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:55 PM

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From 50 shades of van weather blog. So yeah thunderstorm chance...

The AFD for Portland also suggested that due to the strength of the cold front approaching the coast paired with favourable upper level tilt in the trough, along with an increase of low level lapse rates may be enough to destabilize the atmosphere just enough so those on the immediate coast, be prepared for...

The occasional BOOM.

A possible squall of thunderstorms to develop this evening...
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3

#5240
IbrChris

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:56 PM

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Another thing to note is that most convective events this time of year are surface-based. This is evident by a strong 500 mb cold pool being able to incite quite a bit of lightning activity over the ocean and up to the coast but not much inland as surface based instability is much lower or nonexistent once inland from the coast. 

Compare this to our summertime setups which are primarily due to elevated instability and mid-hi level moisture advection/theta-e advection from the SW monsoon.



#5241
TT-SEA

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:12 PM

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For all those who think ridging in early March is so terrible and that we need months of rain and snow here is a excerpt from Cliff Mass:

 

"The latest forecasts suggest high pressure will move in on Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions aloft.  I would expect extraordinary skiing conditions then...so get ready.  By that time I would expect the Washington snow pack to be near 100% of normal, leaving us in great shape for the upcoming summer, assuming normal or even a bit below normal precipitation the rest of the season"

 

Some people on here think we have to be pounded endlessly for months on end to even approach normal to get us through our 6 weeks of true summer.  

 

Not true.   



#5242
Deweydog

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:16 PM

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For all those who think ridging in early March is so terrible and that we need months of rain and snow here is a excerpt from Cliff Mass:

 

"The latest forecasts suggest high pressure will move in on Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions aloft.  I would expect extraordinary skiing conditions then...so get ready.  By that time I would expect the Washington snow pack to be near 100% of normal, leaving us in great shape for the upcoming summer, assuming normal or even a bit below normal precipitation the rest of the season"

 

Some people on here think we have to be pounded endlessly for months on end to even approach normal to get us through our 6 weeks of true summer.  

 

Not true.   

 

Now that's peace of mind!  Thanks, Tim!


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#5243
Snowman Josh

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:16 PM

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Amazing how quickly this region rebounds from abnormal climatology.

 

I'm still holding out hope for later this week as conditions appear at this point to be marginal for snow.  That being said, a little shift in the 500 mb pattern Mon/Tue could spell goods for all.  I'm watching with a telescope the next 24 hours of runs.


  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

#5244
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:16 PM

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About the area I'll focus on -
1658322_1469345986618773_274539222_o.jpg


Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist
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#5245
Deweydog

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:19 PM

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About the area I'll focus on -
1658322_1469345986618773_274539222_o.jpg

 

Chances are much better near/along the coast vs. inland.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#5246
Timmy

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:25 PM

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About the area I'll focus on -1658322_1469345986618773_274539222_o.jpg


You should probably focus on SoCal then... Because that map, not just the colors, doesn't work.

#5247
Timmy

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:26 PM

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Seems like there would be reports offshore by now.
http://www.cascadeac.../lightning2.jpg

#5248
KMartin

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:30 PM

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Terrain influence is the reason and that's why they aren't producing offshore yet.  Think as they move inland with the squall feature it will strengthen. 


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#5249
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:43 PM

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This argument is becoming inane.


Snowfall

 

2014-15: 0.5"

 

11/29: 0.5"

11/14: T

 

2013-14: 11.75"

2012-13: 16.75"

2011-12: 98.5"

 

I am now a Dad to 3 daughters under the age of 2. 

 

1/27/2013

12/17/2014 X 2


#5250
Weather101

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:47 PM

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Everything is insane on this board. A reason why people avoid it. Should be pretty obvs by now to just post what you feel and stop arguing with every little post someone makes. Seeing people get mad over a smiley face icon? Grow up
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3