6z GFS shifted a tad south and widened the band a bit with general 6-12
MKE AFD this morning:
Confidence is high (70-90%) in widespread accumulating snowfall
for southern Wisconsin late Thursday through at least Friday
morning, as a shortwave moves through the region. The big
question with this system is the track of the stronger
frontogenetic forcing. Models still vary a bit with the
placement of the strong frontogenesis, ranging from along/just
north of the northern forecast area border to along the WI/IL
state line. Locally higher amounts are expected with the
stronger forcing, but it`s too early to pin down totals,
especially where these higher amounts may wind up. Given that
this system has slowed down a bit, confidence is increasing that
accumulating snowfall will impact the Friday morning commute,
especially where any banded snowfall sets up due to the stronger
forcing.
It was lit. Wish I could relive it.
Light snow began around 2pm in association w/ WAA/isentropic upglide, gradually intensified to moderate snow by sundown as the first frontogenic bands rotated in. No wind yet at this point, just completely dead calm and silent.
Then at ~ 10pm, frontogenic forcing and moisture advection went nuclear all of a sudden. In the blink of an eye it started puking snow at ~ 2”+/hr, along with frequent thunder/lightning and the first gusts of wind from the E/NE. The entire character of the storm changed in an instant. This went on until ~ 5AM, then we temporarily lulled back to light snow ahead of the ULL/deform pivot. Still a light NE wind at that point.
Then just after lunchtime, the deformation band pivoted overhead, and the true blizzard conditions began, with the highest rates and strongest winds of the storm. As winds quickly veered to the N/NW, the temperature dropped from 29°F to 21°F and snowfall rates increased to 3”+/hr. Lots of blowing/drifting snow. No thunder/lightning this time, but the conditions on the ground were more extreme than overnight. Ripped like crazy until 6-7pm, until the deform band pivoted off to the E/NE, at which point we fell back to light snow for the next 3 hours. Finally stopped snowing ~ 10PM.
NWS employee that lived a few miles away reported 37” as the grand total. My measurements were all over the place because of drifting, but the average was a bit over 34”. Though this doesn’t account for compaction, so maybe it would’ve been a little higher if I’d followed official measurement procedures.
All in all, an amazing storm. My 3rd favorite storm of all time, in fact (behind the 2/10/10 mega-blizzard and 2/6/10 snowmageddon that had occurred just days prior).
Amazing. Couldn't imagine 34" of snow in a day. What a ride that would be. And I'm assuming the snowfall rates weren't a uniform 1.5"/hr or whatever... What did they peak at?
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.