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NWS SD posted a pic someone took on I15.  There was like 3 inches and counting at one point.

Impressive.

 

That can't be more than what, 1,500 feet?

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I have just 7" and melting from this past storm. It was cold and very wind driven so it's neat to see the 'snow dunes' form and areas with 2-3 foot drifts. My season total is 16.5", well below normal.

 

How much snow do you have on the ground?

 

I saw pictures of a solid covering of snow on Facebook apparently from Temecula between LA and San Diego at just above 1,000 feet. Seriously impressive!

 

10906505_583696428440638_149865787551827

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The last picture is Lake Elsinore looking west towards the backside of the Santa Ana mountains. I could see this snow from my house in the mountains today a good 70+ miles away. The rest are Temecula area. You could call this photo series "The best of Instagram." :D

 

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

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Pretty unreal. Snow fell in spots that haven't seen any for 20+ years.

That was an impressive snowfall for those areas that don't get snow very often. I was out yesterday in various parts of Orange County and could see the snow on the Santa Ana Mountains that extended from Saddleback on southward. The snow level was amazingly low, and it was really strange not seeing snow on the lower peaks just east of my house, but portions of the range more to the south around the same elevation had quite a bit of snow. It appears the brunt of the storm occurred from about a south Orange County to southern Riverside County line on south, which included the southern peaks in O.C., Lake Elsinore, Temecula, and Murrieta, and possibly down to Escondido and Oceanside in San Diego County. I only picked up .07" from this storm and the offshore winds were really howling here in Orange during the storm.

 

Yesterday, I took a couple of pictures of the snow on Saddleback and other nearby peaks from the Modjeska Canyon and Rancho Santa Margarita / Live Oak Canyon area of Orange County that I may post here a bit later.

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Those pix are insane!  I now see where the snow we should have gotten went.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Those pix are insane!  I now see where the snow we should have gotten went.

 

Kinda works to show that it was in fact, an "Arctic" event, huh. ?

 

.. This along with also working to demonstrate what I'd been saying here.

 

>  http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=60143

 

.. "snow" / "lower-level snow" wise, with this type of more WSW retrograde type pattern.

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Finally got back & calculated December data

 

Rainfall was very encouraging and hope we get similar totals in Jan.  Cool max/ mild min reflect rainfall.

 

Dec 2014

 

Aver Max: 67.3 [norm: 69

Aver Min: 52.4 [norm: 50

Mean: 59.8

 

Rain: 4.95

Year [jul-jun]: 5.63

Days: 8

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Finally got back & calculated December data

 

Rainfall was very encouraging and hope we get similar totals in Jan.  Cool max/ mild min reflect rainfall.

 

Dec 2014

 

Aver Max: 67.3 [norm: 69

Aver Min: 52.4 [norm: 50

Mean: 59.8

 

Rain: 4.95

Year [jul-jun]: 5.63

Days: 8

So far at South Lake Tahoe I have received 3" of snow on the season. Reno weather serivce just came out with this today

 

"THE ANOMALIES SO STRONG FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF JANUARY. I REALLY HOPE I AM WRONG. WALLMANN "

 

We could possibly start Febuary with a 90"+ snowfall deficit and only 3" total which is mind blowing. Last year I had a 110" or so deficit and this year is worse.

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So far at South Lake Tahoe I have received 3" of snow on the season. Reno weather serivce just came out with this today

 

"THE ANOMALIES SO STRONG FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF JANUARY. I REALLY HOPE I AM WRONG. WALLMANN "

 

We could possibly start Febuary with a 90"+ snowfall deficit and only 3" total which is mind blowing. Last year I had a 110" or so deficit and this year is worse.

I really find it astounding that the conditions in the Sierras are even WORSE in some areas this year as opposed to last year. The primary reason for this is that the storms were either too warm or they weakened before reaching the mountains. Normally a series of storms like we had earlier in December would dump a load of snow in the mountains and the ski resorts would be in tip top shape right about now.

 

I think there is something really weird going on in the Pacific in recent years and I don't know for sure what is causing it. I do have a theory of something that may be contributing to this pattern that I am going to post here soon, but I need to gather my thoughts together so that I don't leave out any piece of information that I wish to include.

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Maybe this scenario will pan out per Steve Johnson.

 

71 / 45

 

Forecast Outlook into Long Range and Fantasyland ending Mon, Jan 19th;

 

SPECIAL NOTATION:

 

January TROPICAL CYCLONE? Charts today have taken an important twist regarding this forecast storm which could impact CA with heavy rains!

Despite the skepticism, for the third consecutive day the GSF continues to depict a genuine Tropical Cyclone developing in the Northern Hemisphere on/by Thu, Jan 8th, (it could occur on the 7th) which would be a highly unusual event for this time of year.

  • There have only been 25 January Tropical Storms and/or Typhoons in the PAC basin since 1959.
  • The last January unnamed subtropical Depression occurred Jan 18th 2010
  • The last January Tropical Storm occurred on Jan 12th 2008
  • The last January Typhoon occurred on Jan 13th 2005

The forecast Tropical Cyclone location is near 8N 15E. This will be very interesting to monitor! The WPAC GFS charts show this storm slowly intensifies nears the Philippines on Sun, Jan 11th, and then stalls out and weakens Tue, Jan 13th, and then dissipates on Thu, Jan 15th. However, more importantly, the remnant moisture field begins entrainment into the westerly flow on Tues or Wed, Jan 13th or 14th and which fully engulfs into the zonal westerly flow stretching across the PAC basin east to 140W the next day, Thu, Jan 15th. The remnant moisture field eventually reaches into CA on Fri, Jan 16th with heavy rainfall continuing into Sat, Jan 17th. There is no guarantee that this forecast solution will verify, but it is worth monitoring especially now that it implicates wx conditions for CA! No one else is discussing this possible unique event occurring into CA, nor even discussing the possibility of the WPAC Tropical Cyclone development…you heard it here first!

 

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Warm offshore winds produced great visibility; one could easily see the snow on the San Gabriel mountains around Mt Baldy; ski resorts are making snow on a fairly good base from the last storm/ cold temps in Dec.

 

84 /56

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Looks pretty grim but maybe the low over Baja will produce some rain for SoCal.  When it is as warm as it has been lately I recall what last January was like and shutter in fear [not cold]. Some stations hit 88° today [mostly in Orange County.  

 

85 / 59

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Looks pretty grim but maybe the low over Baja will produce some rain for SoCal.  When it is as warm as it has been lately I recall what last January was like and shutter in fear [not cold]. Some stations hit 88° today [mostly in Orange County.  

 

85 / 59

 

I'm looking for a big shift in more over-all force of movement, and so with it hopefully main patterning, .. post the 9th. 

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I'm looking for a big shift in more over-all force of movement, and so with it hopefully main patterning, .. post the 9th. 

I hope you are right because we need a pattern shift in our favor to bring much needed rain and snow to CA. This warm, dry January weather is for the birds! Too many Januaries in recent years have been like this and it really isn't normal to get so many dry ones in a row, even though a dry January in itself is not all that uncommon.

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.. I'm fairly confident that we'll have a better look, at least at potential, after the 9th. 

 

I've outlined my more general thinking where looking at things both having lead up to this point, and before then, along with put my best, more positive spin, on what I can see (if more remotely.) perhaps happening from then more forward, tacked into my thread initiated entitled "Approaching Pattern Discussion", main "The West" section. - http://theweatherfor...#entry61994

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NWS_LA commented that the EC model has been unreliable in recent weeks but we can hope for maybe 0.25 if it verifies.

 

Some high clouds moving in today so how knows! 

 

80F

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Best case scenarios time certainly. Here's what I got "happ". 
 
.. I don't know what any of the models are showingas as I've said in the past, I don't check them as a general matter of course. 
 
But with colder air's more over force of movement appearing to have begun to pick up at this point.  / And with just looking at things more generally where working outside, i.e. the more clear, sunny and warm bluer skies over the past 4 or 5 days previous to today here more a bit more north where I am having given way today to some cover at least looking like the potential for rain more, ... 
 
Where considering the main elements the I do and where looking at the broader picture more downstream along with otherwise north more generally, … 
 
1501092245z nasa globlir.jpg
15010912z nhem 850.gif
 
With main and broader cold currently moving and spreading daily more south at this point, and even with cold more primary from the north north of the Pacific not being all that dense, .. with the moisture sitting out over the Pacific currently, looked at as a whole, fairly disorganized, and appearing to be moving along if fairly slowly at this point, fairly train-like east, … This moisture could, ultimately, I'm thinking, perhaps be pressed on from and by colder air to the north, brought together better and guided eastward, with broader cold's being set otherwise over the next few days to begin to move, at an if at first only more gradual, but then each day following, progressively more stepped up pace east.
 
All I got.

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Best case scenarios time certainly. Here's what I got "happ". 

 

.. I don't know what any of the models are showingas as I've said in the past, I don't check them as a general matter of course. 

 

But with colder air's more over force of movement appearing to have begun to pick up at this point.  / And with just looking at things more generally where working outside, i.e. the more clear, sunny and warm bluer skies over the past 4 or 5 days previous to today here more a bit more north where I am having given way today to some cover at least looking like the potential for rain more, ... 

 

Where considering the main elements the I do and where looking at the broader picture more downstream along with otherwise north more generally, … 

 

1501092245z nasa globlir.jpg

15010912z nhem 850.gif

 

With main and broader cold currently moving and spreading daily more south at this point, and even with cold more primary from the north north of the Pacific not being all that dense, .. with the moisture sitting out over the Pacific currently, looked at as a whole, fairly disorganized, and appearing to be moving along if fairly slowly at this point, fairly train-like east, … This moisture could, ultimately, I'm thinking, perhaps be pressed on from and by colder air to the north, brought together better and guided eastward, with broader cold's being set otherwise over the next few days to begin to move, at an if at first only more gradual, but then each day following, progressively more stepped up pace east.

 

All I got.

 

Looks like a better chance for rainfall tomorrow night than what models were forecasting yesterday.  So in spite of the semi-permanent ridge, these weak systems are able to make landfall in SoCal, I hope. 

 

72 / 57

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Looks like a better chance for rainfall tomorrow night than what models were forecasting yesterday.  So in spite of the semi-permanent ridge, these weak systems are able to make landfall in SoCal, I hope.

.. With a more localized low just off the coast, it looks like. That low's having resulted with the presently increasing more general force of movement of broader cold at this point that I've suggested above perhaps.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc06.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

Analysis/Satellite Composite

(N Amer/Pacific)

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Things looking pretty good for something leastwise precip. wise at this point, for LA/ Oxnardmore central more south.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc18.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

Analysis/Satellite Composite

(N Amer/Pacific)

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=223&map.y=

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I keep referring to the idea, but the at this point increasing and if more general force of movement of colder air where looked at more over-all, appears to be having some effect where looking at the potential for an offset of moisture in its path more eastward.

Currently relatively slow-moving east, if set to begin to pick up in paceper my most recent set of projections. @

More to the north where I am even, more offshore, it looks like something if lesser, is moving toward more systemic.

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-2100B.jpg

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Things looking pretty good for something leastwise precip. wise at this point, for LA/ Oxnardmore central more south.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc18.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

Analysis/Satellite Composite

(N Amer/Pacific)

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=223&map.y=

Much of Socal has been getting some on and off light rain today, including here in Orange, although the heaviest totals have been in Los Angeles County and Ventura County so far.

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Man, I could live on a regular diet of troughs like this.  Summer troughs cool us down; winter troughs bring rain.

 

LA was the sweet spot for the moisture.

 

8AM

Rain 1.05

Month: 1.23

 

59°

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This has actually turned out to be a good storm here in Orange County and in January for a change! The rain picked up in intensity and was moderate to even a bit heavy at times overnight into the early morning hours this morning, before lightening up. The light rain continued here into the mid afternoon before coming to an end. It is still cloudy and looks as there could be a few more showers before it is over. I will post a rainfall total tomorrow.

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The moisture, though generally under 1.00, was limited mostly to SoCal [bakersfield even recorded 0.64].  Perfect timing since the last significant rainfall was in mid-December; I was planning to irrigate this weekend. 

 

Rain Year [jul-jun]: 6.86

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I admire positive thinking as much as the next guy.  However, in the interest of painting an accurate overall picture of California’s weather situation, I feel obliged to point out that although local lawns and plants in SoCal may be happy in the short term from last weekend’s storm, it didn’t really do anything to mitigate the drought.  It didn’t produce any significant snowfall either in our local mountains or in the Sierra.

 

Unless the Sierra gets some really serious snowfall soon, this could turn out to be one of the poorest winters on record.  I would think that on top of already exceptional drought conditions, that would suggest a severe water shortage with drastic conservation measures required statewide.

 

I hope I’m just being a worrywart, but certainly the current outlook is no cause for celebration — the latest models show no precipitation anywhere in California for the rest of January except for a few brushes in the extreme northwestern corner of the state.

 

All we can do is hope for a turnaround in February or March.  Anyone for a redux of the “Miracle March” of 1991?

I agree with you that we desperately need snowfall in the Sierras badly, as well as the rest of the mountains in the West. I was quite dismayed that this storm didn't bring snow to the local mountains and the Sierra. As a matter of fact I stated that on another weather blog, but didn't include that statement here. I am not at all happy with the prospects of dry weather for possibly the remainder of this month, and am becoming quite disgusted with the overall winter pattern we have been stuck in since 2012.

 

I am really surprised that December's storms didn't do that much good in the Sierras. Normally in a storm cycle like that, the Sierras would have absolutely been dumped on with heavy snowfall, even if it were at a somewhat higher elevation due to the subtropical nature of the moisture.

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I must join the voices of concern as well.  The forecast looks horrible for the next several weeks if it verifies [which it probably will].  I was delighted by last weekend's rain but it's impact, as Eujunga points, was merely to keep us from having to irrigate our gardens for maybe another week or two, depending on how warm it gets as yet another ridge sets up over the West Coast.

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The consolation prize for no rain is sunny and relatively warm which most Californians seem content with.

 

73 / 51

I don't enjoy prolonged warm sunny periods from January through March when we should at least be getting on and off storms. However, if we have had a series of significant storms with a lot of rain, then I don't mind a 1-3 week dry spell so that everything has a chance to dry out before the next storm arrives. I like comfortable sunny weather during our dry season such as in spring as I enjoy doing outdoor activities. Every prolonged dry spell this time of year is a missed opportunity for snowfall in the Sierras, and that is where my biggest overall concern lies at this point.

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I don't enjoy prolonged warm sunny periods from January through March when we should at least be getting on and off storms. However, if we have had a series of significant storms with a lot of rain, then I don't mind a 1-3 week dry spell so that everything has a chance to dry out before the next storm arrives. I like comfortable sunny weather during our dry season such as in spring as I enjoy doing outdoor activities. Every prolonged dry spell this time of year is a missed opportunity for snowfall in the Sierras, and that is where my biggest overall concern lies at this point.

 

Agree.  I don't like hot temps during winter but because the days are short, the evenings cool down rapidly.  I was thinking about how the seasons seem to play out.  We depend on winter being wet at least every few weeks and cold enough for ample snowpack in the Sierra.  But winter also means wearing sandals [with socks] and flip-flops, eating outdoors, open windows even going swimming [in heated pools].  This is what many people want and why they live in southern California.  It is hard to stay angry with the weather when so many days are nearly perfect for the outdoors.

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Beautiful photos, Eujunga.

 

I didn't take photos but I saw 3 incredible women walking down the street today in small halter tops and short shorts that also reflect winter in SoCal :P  

 

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