December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Guest Winterdog]

TheNewBigMack, on 31 Dec 2014 - 9:26 PM, said:TheNewBigMack, on 31 Dec 2014 - 9:26 PM, said:TheNewBigMack, on 31 Dec 2014 - 9:26 PM, said:

00z sure teases northern locations. Cold flirting with the border, and northerly flow at times, could be snow.

If it verified as shown it would be painful in the short term and in the longer range it just puts an end to any hope for cold weather here through the middle of January.

[GHweatherChris]

00z sure teases northern locations. Cold flirting with the border, and northerly flow at times, could be snow.

Nothing promising in the models for Western Washington at all.

 

These analog composites and indexes better be right and the models better flip soon.

[GHweatherChris]

If it verified as shown it would be painful and in the longer range it just puts an end to any hope for cold weather here through the middle of January.

Exactly.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM is a mess through day 10.

[GHweatherChris]

00Z GEM is a mess through day 10.

The models are very emphatic that our weather will be boring as hell throughout.

 

The analogs and indexes say otherwise.

 

Too much model support for nothing exciting, I will be shocked if things flip on a dime and show the goods, although I am hopeful.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmmm........

Anchorage NWS talks about a Rex Block setting up probably around 155-160 W (in my opinion). 
-------------------------------------------------------------
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A DOMINANT RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (~1040MB). THE OTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A SEASONABLE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. THE LOW OUT WEST WILL BRING MINIMAL IMPACTING WEATHER. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL HELP SET UP A REX BLOCK PATTERN.
THIS OCCURS WHEN A STRONG HIGH FORMS OVER A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW. IT EFFECTIVELY FORCES THE STRONG FLOW OF THE STORM TRACK TO GO AROUND IT. THE NET EFFECT IS THAT ONCE IT IS IN PLACE...IT CAN LEAD TO VERY DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.

*THE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THAT HIGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. --SO RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND--...**IT IS NOW SHOWN CLOSER TO THE BERING STRAIT. THE 18Z PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO HINT AT THIS YESTERDAY...THEN THE 00Z EC TRENDED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION. THE 12Z EC CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA. AND NOW EVEN THE 12Z AND 18Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE GONE IN THAT DIRECTION AND ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE EC.

--------------------------------------------------------------

00z GFS Day 6-10 Analog Composite continues to look ideal textbook pattern.

[richard mann]

(.. continued in line with a post tacked up earlier today, no. 7654 above. Initial paragraph here below, repeated.)

 

 

.. What we're looking at more currently, per my view, is colder air's, more primary, having moved retrograde WSW, the result of a "blast" of more Arctic based cold having moved southward, more originally resting over Northern Central Asia. .And, with this cold's, if where having been more mainly focused and headed, having been limited where having been moving more directly south, to the only more northern mid-latitudes more to the East. This with the cold more over the greater West at this point, more residual, having been allowed to "drift" WSW, with over-all cold air's more through the mid-latitudes more at and to this point and over the past several days, having been slowing its main pace and progress more eastward. 

 

***********

 

.. As I'd begun to say previously, where and with working off of both the current general "Synopses", generated posted at the main NWS WFOs for both Seattle and Portland, along with Medford further south, and with also focusing on my own more current general view of the broader patterning in place more kinetic, unfolding at this point, …

 

.. If you'll look at my more general projections—colder air mass, both movement and broader distribution focused—posted most recent, you'll see that I've got broader cold (i.e. that main in and through the broader mid-latitudes.) set to "continue" to recess more northward, through to the 3rd of Jan., before cold more primary from the north begins to move and spread daily more south again as a whole. 

 

— Just where, more specifically, more longitudinally (through what main longitudes more specific.) more for sure, I can't say without things getter closer. This although some idea can be gathered where looking at this potential more, where looking at general propensity where considering more primary cold's present position/s, either whether shown or otherwise suggested with checking the main upper air views more hemisphere views at 850, 500, and 300mbs. (Check the "Gif loop" animations that I've generated accessible below, showing both this idea; their also working to show, what I've suggested otherwise both above and a bit further here below,)

 

.. The main idea here, more latitudinal in my view, and that I've focused on suggested, .. working to explain just why, the more primary, more "Arctic" cold .. more or less "stopped", at the U.S. / Canadian broader more east (Some having dropped a bit further south and into the Northern Midwest.). This with then, and if again, the cold over the greater West at this point more, being the result of .. some of this stronger cold's having "broken off" from (even.) that more main, and having drifted more this way.  (Check the animations.)

 

Gif animations, at the main upper-air level. First through 12z for the 29th (main potential for some Arctic cold over the PNW "late Dec.".) 12 hourly, and beginning from back on the 21st. ….

 

Things more hemispheric at 850mb, actual "temperature", 500mb pressure height, only more indicative of temperature at this level, and the 300mb pressure height, with Jet maximums shown clearly, and so strongest pressure/s more horizontal. …

 

14122100z 14122912z nhem 850.gif 

14122100z 14122912z nhem 500.gif 

14122100z 14122912z nhem 300.gif 

 

And then, the same views from the 29th 12z, more fully through to the more recent 12 last night. .....

 

14122100z 14123112z nhem 850.gif 

14122100z 14123112z nhem 500.gif 

14122100z 14123112z nhem 300.gif 

 

imagery source:  http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur

 

Related, connected. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/709-december-2014-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=59836

[Gradient Keeper]

Congrats dude. Got engaged myself just a few months back, it's a great feeling.

Congratulations. Best of luck to you both

[GHweatherChris]

(.. continued in line with post tacked up earlier today, no. 7654 above Initial paragraph here below, repeated.)

 

 

.. What we're looking at more currently, per my view, is colder air's, more primary, having moved retrograde WSW, the result of a "blast" of more Arctic based cold having moved southward, more originally over Northern Central Asia. And, with this cold's, if where more mainly focused, having been limited where having been moving more directly south, to the only more northern mid-latitudes more to the East. This with the cold more over the greater West at this point, more residual, having been allowed to "drift" WSW, with over-all cold air's more through the mid-latitudes more at this point and over the past several days, been slowing its main pace and progress more eastward. 

 

***********

 

.. As I'd begun to say previously, where and with working off of both the current general "Synopses", generated posted at the main NWS WFOs for both Seattle and Portland, along with Medford further south, and with also focusing on my own more current general view of the broader patterning in place more kinetic, …

 

.. If you'll look at my more general projections—colder air mass, both movement and broader distribution focused—posted most recent, you'll see that I've got broader cold (i.e. that main in and through the broader mid-latitudes.) set to "continue" to recess more northward, through to the 3rd of Jan., before cold more primary from the north begins to move and spread daily more south again as a whole. 

 

— Where more specifically more longitudinally (through what main longitudes more specific.), more for sure, I can't say without things getter closer. This although can gather some idea where looking at this potential more, where looking at general propensity where considering more primary cold's present position/s either whether shown or suggested with check the main upper air views more hemisphere views at 850, 500, and 300mbs. (Check the "Gif loop" animations that I've generated accessible below, showing both this .. along with working to, what I've suggested otherwise both above and a bit further here below,)

 

.. The main idea here, more latitudinal .. in my view, and that I've suggested, working to explain just why, more the more primary, more "Arctic" cold .. more or less "stopped" at the U.S. / Canadian broader .. more east (Some having dropped a bit further south and into the Northern Midwest.). This with then, and if again, the cold over the greater West at this point, being the result of .. some of this stronger cold's having broken out from (even.) that more main, and drifted more this way. 

 

Gif animations, at the main upper-air level. First through 12z for the 29th (main potential for some Arctic cold over the PNW "late Dec.".) 12 hourly, and beginning from back on the 21st. ….

 

Things more hemispheric at 850mb, actual "temperature", 500mb pressure height, only more indicative of temperature at this level, and the 300mb pressure height, with Jet maximums shown clearly, and so strongest pressure/s more horizontal. …

 

14122100z 14122912z nhem 500.gif 

14122100z 14122912z nhem 500.gif 

14122100z 14122912z nhem 300.gif 

 

And then, the same views from the 29th 12z, more fully through to the more recent 12 last night. .....

 

14122100z 14123112z nhem 850.gif 

14122100z 14123112z nhem 500.gif 

14122100z 14123112z nhem 300.gif 

 

imagery source: http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur

So, in your opinion there is potential for more cold to invade the PNW down to your area in the next 10 to 14 days and if we get lucky there could be some moisture introduced into it for some snowy areas from Washington to Northern California/Southern Oregon?

[richard mann]

.. Sure. Plenty of cold, north. It should jostle around enough through and within the higher latitudes for "something" to move over the much of the Far West, by or even more pretty close to then if not somewhat before. Speaking more generally.

 

— I'm currently, "looking at" (with more specific emphasis here.) more mid-month, and working to narrow down a decent window where looking at "either or", perhaps even more hopefully (if again.) some both, "cold" and "snow". Basic snow that is, not necessarily downtown Seattle, just more general north, Sierra to WA Cascades.

 

... a few "mis-directs", small omissions, with what I've dropped up mainly above. Fixed more now, with my proofread more online, btw.

[GHweatherChris]

.. Sure. Plenty of cold, north. It should jostle around enough through and within the higher latitudes for "something" to move over the much of the Far West, by or even more pretty close to then if not somewhat before. Speaking more generally.

 

— I'm currently, "looking at" (with more specific emphasis here.) more mid-month, and working to narrow down a decent window where looking at "either or", perhaps even more hopefully (if again.) some both, "cold" and "snow". Basic snow that is, not necessarily downtown Seattle, just more general north, Sierra to WA Cascades.

So you are not looking at lowland snow potential, mostly upper elevations?

[richard mann]

.. Yeh. No. 
 
— Perhaps a bit ambiguous there. Mainly more just more "normal" levels. North / South.
 
And if of course more, hoping for.-I've mentioned the idea of a "fat" "middle", previously. Fuller season wise, more main mountain snow focused. This if more generally, a pattern more retrograde inclusive, tending WSW, has I've certainly noted in the past (Not going "analog" here.), having been in line with "low-level" snow here more south where I am. ... Snow at all, maybe a few times a year, every 3 or 4 only. Pattern recognition, where looking at what we've been seeing is what I've referring to.
 
— So. ... Who knows. Reason to "think positive". (?) 
 
... Main focus here more south, OR boarder southward, of course, being more of "whatever" kind of precip..  First or more current (even with snow in downtown Seattle / Portland.) .."we" don't care.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles great improvement

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF has cold air way closer at 96 hours compared to its 12Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS Ensembles great improvement

 

Please post fool dogg...

[Guest Winterdog]

Hmmmmm........

Anchorage NWS talks about a Rex Block setting up probably around 155-160 W (in my opinion). 

-------------------------------------------------------------

00z GFS Day 6-10 Analog Composite continues to look ideal textbook pattern.

They reference todays GFS runs as showing the block. If it is showing on the 12 and 18Z it sure isn't doing us any good. There is no similarity on any of todays runs to the 6-10 day analog composites despite said rex block.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF just a tease... warm air floods in on Monday.

[richard mann]

.. "son of a "b*tch". 

 

 I've just discovered, with rechecking what I'd posted above more main, that I'd duplicated the initial "500mb" 1221_00 to 1229_12z to "Gif loop" that I'd included access to, .. in place of having tacked in the main url to that  same more initial period for the 850mb level. .... Fairly important to what I'd been working to convey. Arctic cold having "stopped" at the U.S. Canadian border where having been headed more directly south. .. Please take a look at the 850mb loop for the period.

 

— "Fixed" and accessible, more at this point. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

.. "son of a "b*tch". 

 

 I've just discovered, with rechecking what I'd posted above more main, that I'd duplicated the initial "500mb" 1221_00 to 1229_12z to "Gif loop" that I'd included access to, .. in place of having tacked in the main url to that  same more initial period for the 850mb level. .... Fairly important to what I'd been working to convey. Arctic cold having "stopped" at the U.S. Canadian border where having been headed more directly south. .. Please take a look at the 850mb loop for the period.

 

— "Fixed" and accessible, more at this point. 

 

Stuff happens. 

[richard mann]

.. No big deal. 

 

"Fixed", for "posterity". (As it were.)

 

— Noteworthy changes, and occurrence. Perhaps a bit too much focus on what "didn't" happen (understandably.), and I'm thinking perhaps, not enough on what "did", or what is more at this point. Even more in between and then what might more ahead, is what I'm looking at. So, with this .. just trying to be clear. Definitely time for a cigar.

[Deweydog]

.. "son of a "b*tch".

 

I've just discovered, with rechecking what I'd posted above more main, that I'd duplicated the initial "500mb" 1221_00 to 1229_12z to "Gif loop" that I'd included access to, .. in place of having tacked in the main url to that same more initial period for the 850mb level. .... Fairly important to what I'd been working to convey. Arctic cold having "stopped" at the U.S. Canadian border where having been headed more directly south. .. Please take a look at the 850mb loop for the period.

 

— "Fixed" and accessible, more at this point.

For whatever reason, you cussing is really, really funny.

[richard mann]

 

"edgy", huh. ?

 

— You got it right. Just trying to "get through", science wise. .... You know, like "earnestine", "and julio". .. (?)

 

.. Cheers. Near to New Years. .... Main champagne, .. "time". 

[GHweatherChris]

yay

 

Happy New Year!!

 

**** the models until tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Happy New Year!

 

Here's to a year full of amazing day 11 analogs and zero marine push fatalities!

[ShawniganLake]

Please post fool dogg...

Look kinda poopy to me.  Can I say poopy when talking to other adults?

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Happy new year everyone. Congrats Jesse!

[TT-SEA]

So we have the 00Z runs from the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF showing no signs at of anything.  

 

Here is the favored ECMWF (which handled the current pattern very well) at 240 hours:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010100!!chart.gif

 

 

Not sure its possible to be farther away from something good than that in early January.

 

And now the ensembles are all warm.  

 

Evidence is mounting!   

[ShawniganLake]

Canadian ensembles in the long range trending poorly as well.

 

Tonight

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015010100/gem-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

 

 

Same time frame 36hrs ago looked like this.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2014123012/gem-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

[wx_statman]

Happy New Year everyone!

 

2014 has finished with annual spread of 99-19 at PDX and 96-21 at SEA.

 

Here's to bigger and better extremes in 2015!

[MossMan]

Happy New Year! Let's start off 2015 right and have some epic model runs...starting with the 6z!!

[MossMan]

Oh and it's currently 22 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

Oh and it's currently 22 degrees.

Nice and chilly.  Second straight night that it has been partly to mostly cloudy here.  Screwed up any chance of seeing lows in the teens.  Currently low clouds and 29F. 

[richard mann]

-
.. Main more "Surface" level temps (cold.), fuller North American scope hourly quick, for the past 10 days or so. 
 
14122100 15010108z tcm sfc na.gif   (Loads more slowly. The actual loop, once loaded in, runs very quickly.)
 
— More primary cold at this point more current, being near to its most "consolidated"—cyclically, more inner-seasonally; .. with broader cold more secondary looked at otherwise, being near to fuller regress / general recession north, set to culminate on the 3rd of Jan., before beginning to move and spread more south from then forward through the 17th. ... My impression and theory leastwise.

 

— Note, that the actual "retrograde" expected, had been more west "over" the lower Cascades and Sierra, as opposed to the Cascades, or at a slightly larger scale or otherwise looked at the Rockies, more northward.

[BLI snowman]

I'm sure I'll jinx it merely by mentioning it, but there's a small chance for some light flurries tomorrow night with that little clipper coming in from the NW. Borderline setup and 925mb temps are probably too warm, but the timing of it and lack of onshore flow may help. Not much but at least it's something to watch.

[richard mann]

So we have the 00Z runs from the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF showing no signs at of anything.  

 

Here is the favored ECMWF... at 240 hours:

 

http://www.proxigee.com/240hr_valid-for_15011100z-t.jpg

 

... Not sure its possible to be farther away from something good ...  And now the ensembles are all warm. Evidence is mounting. ...   

 

So when do you "leave" for Hawaii, Tim. ?

[Prairiedog]

Weather in Winthrop is what we dream about in the Valley and well anywhere west of the Cascades. Good foot on the ground here, early morning temp about 6f. Daytime didn't get above about 16f yesterday and sunny out. At Sun Mountain Lodge about a thousand feet higher, temps similar but about 1 1/2-2feet of snow. Clear and cold with more snow coming in Sunday. Deer, wild turkeys, and bald eagles everywhere. A few guys actually steelhead fishing on the Methow R. Now, that's dedication.

[Prairiedog]

Caught this juvenile Bald Eagle feeding on a coyote kill of a mule deer.

Looking west towards the North Cascades from Winthrop (Sun Mountain Lodge)

[Prairiedog]

The wild turkeys were just wandering through people's yards. Quite the sight!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and GEM show nothing of interest.

 

I think Jim is misreading the signals or not seeing the forest for the trees right now.

 

Might be another situation where the tropics line up for us and then deliver nothing... its happened numerous times in recent years.     

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS and GEM show nothing of interest.

 

I think Jim is misreading the signals or not seeing the forest for the trees right now.

 

Might be another situation where the tropics line up for us and then deliver nothing... its happened numerous times in recent years.     

It's not December anymore.