January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

No. I was pointing out that below 0C 850s were occurring at a time when someone said it seemed impossible to get them. It was ironic

 

I never claimed this month was cool, or that 850s had been cool overall.

Ah.

[TT-SEA]

Back-to-back 60+ degree days at SEA in January with no precipitation and basically sunny skies.

 

When has that ever happened?

[MossMan]

Up to 64 degrees here at my work that is right on the Snohomish/Skagit line. Just has that feel, smell, and sound of a nice early June day.

[BLI snowman]

As the map shows, 2013 was near normal overall. It had some warm periods and some cool periods, but it wasn't a torchy year. It's just fact, calling a spade a spade. 2014 was a very warm year. 2013 was near normal.

 

Now, if you were just talking summer, that's different. But that's not what he said.

 

2013 averaged about 1F above normal at BLI. Not a total torch, but definitely a bit on the warm side. Ridging has been the predominant West Coast pattern since January 2013.

[Skagit Weather]

It definitely feels like spring outside. 63F here, 69F in Sedro Woolley sets all-time January record dating back to 1897 (previous record was 67F in 1931).

[TT-SEA]

67.1 degrees down at the valley floor...

 

http://s17.postimg.org/6nwknaywe/nb1.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Back-to-back 60+ degree days at SEA in January with no precipitation and basically sunny skies.

 

When has that ever happened?

 

There have been only been like ten January days over 60 at SEA prior to this year, so never.

[MossMan]

It definitely feels like spring outside. 63F here, 69F in Sedro Woolley sets all-time January record dating back to 1897 (previous record was 67F in 1931).

I just noticed on your signature that you have had zero sub freezing highs this season? Even during the late November event? Think I had at least 3 days during that stretch that did not go above 32...though it might have helped that I had snow on the ground.

[wx_statman]

As the map shows, 2013 was near normal overall. It had some warm periods and some cool periods, but it wasn't a torchy year. It's just fact, calling a spade a spade. 2014 was a very warm year. 2013 was near normal.

Now, if you were just talking summer, that's different. But that's not what he said.

2013 was mostly warm from the end of January until the second half of September.

[HighlandExperience]

Back-to-back 60+ degree days at SEA in January with no precipitation and basically sunny skies.

 

When has that ever happened?

 

It is amazing how far down the totem pole January has gone in the past century. It really should be designated as a Spring month.

[TT-SEA]

It is amazing how far down the totem pole January has gone in the past century. It really should be designated as a Spring month.

 

 

But March remains very winter-like.

 

All messed up.  

[Skagit Weather]

I just noticed on your signature that you have had zero sub freezing highs this season? Even during the late November event? Think I had at least 3 days during that stretch that did not go above 32...though it might have helped that I had snow on the ground.

 

Yeah, November 29th was the only day that I had a subfreezing afternoon high, but because the cold air took so long to arrive, I didn't drop below freeing until after midnight. The following two days hit 34F and 37F before it warmed up, which is probably a result of a lack of snow on the ground.

 

Another interesting fact is that it appears that November is the top winter month here in almost all aspects of snow and cold. November was the closest to snow, had the coldest low, the coldest high (both daily and for the month), the most subfreezing lows, and the coldest average low.

 

My subfreezing lows are showing an unusual trend:

 

November: 11

December: 7

January: 4

[chinook]

We've been in the soup the last 2 days.

 

Temperature at KMMV:  46f. 

[wx_statman]

Sure. Didn't make it an upper level torch that month.  Unlike this January and last, which have been exactly that. 2013 was far different, the numbers don't lie.

 

Saying a year or month torched indicates that it was warm on average, not just that there was some torching in there somewhere.

January 2013 had a top tier warm airmass at Government Camp. That's what stuck out about that month more than anything else.

[bainbridgekid]

So it's June, right?

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-olym/current_ridgecam.jpg?201502615332

[TT-SEA]

So it's June, right?

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-olym/current_ridgecam.jpg?201502615332

 

 

Not this sunny in June!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The Euro is actually not warm past day 7. And has some very cold air not too far away.

 

 

aa.png

aaa.png

Honestly... for us... that cold air is far away by miles and days. Meaningless at this point. Don't forget We do have the Candian border force field at play to... SO it is very, very far away! 

[HighlandExperience]

So it's June, right?

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-olym/current_ridgecam.jpg?201502615332

 

Ummmm there is usually more snow than that in June at Hurricane Ridge.

 

More like end of July!!!

[Front Ranger]

January 2013 had a top tier warm airmass at Government Camp. That's what stuck out about that month more than anything else.

Ok. But it wasn't enough to make it a warm month, even there...which was what Jesse's comment indicated.

 

It's absolutely accurate to call 2014 a torchy year. Totally correct to call this Jan and last torchy. It's also ok to acknowledge that I had a valid point that 2013 was a near normal year, and Jan 2013 was not a torchy month, even at the upper levels.

[TT-SEA]

Sure is disgusting south of Portland... Jim was really hoping this would be the case up here today instead of the spectacular day we actually got.

 

http://s3.postimg.org/5506ai74z/I_5at_Arndt_Rd_pid798.jpg

 

 

Live view from Issaquah Highlands looking west towards Seattle and the Olympic Mountains...

 

http://s1.postimg.org/m65g3vc4v/ISSGR_l.jpg

[bainbridgekid]

Ummmm there is usually more snow than that in June at Hurricane Ridge.

 

More like end of July!!!

True!

 

There are some small snow fields that usually stay through the entire Summer up there. Not gonna happen this year!

[Front Ranger]

Honestly... for us... that cold air is far away by miles and days. Meaningless at this point. Don't forget We do have the Candian border force field at play to... SO it is very, very far away!

Ok. Still not a warm pattern like you said

 

I get you don't want to get your hopes up. And there's nothing in the models at this point to get terribly excited about. But at least it looks like the death ridge will be taking a breather.

[BLI snowman]

Ummmm there is usually more snow than that in June at Hurricane Ridge.

 

More like end of July!!!

 

I went up to Hurricane Ridge in late May 2008. Still 3-4' in the shade and trails, 1-2' near the visitor's center.

[TT-SEA]

True!

 

There are some small snow fields that usually stay through the entire Summer up there. Not gonna happen this year!

 

 

Still could happen... lets see what February - April brings.    Something tells me the mountains will be in much better shape by April 1st.

[Deweydog]

I went up to Hurricane Ridge in late May 2008. Still 3-4' in the shade and trails, 1-2' near the visitor's center.

Analog?????????????????????????????????????????????

[BLI snowman]

Ok. But it wasn't enough to make it a warm month, even there...which was what Jesse's comment indicated.

 

It's absolutely accurate to call 2014 a torchy year. Totally correct to call this Jan and last torchy. It's also ok to acknowledge that I had a valid point that 2013 was a near normal year, and Jan 2013 was not a torchy month, even at the upper levels.

 

Paradise was pretty torchy in January 2013, about 4 degrees above normal.

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6898

 

That's at 6000', so above the inversions and pretty indicative of what the 850mb temps looked like. 

[HighlandExperience]

Still could happen... lets see what February - April brings.    Something tells me the mountains will be in much better shape by April 1st.

 

As dire as our current sitaution is. I agree with you. I fully expect the mountains to recieve a good dumping sometime between Feb-early May.

 

This climate has an amazing resiliency from March through May delivering some pretty hefty mountain snow after a crappy season. I remember the death ski season of 04-05.

 

In a two week period the Cascades in late March had a huge dumping of a couple feet of snow. In April  I remember heading up to go climbing and we got dumped on with a couple of feet of snow (pretty much erasing the lackluster season as if it never existed).

 

Of course by that time that happend, the vast majority of people no longer cared about snow. The current situation is just more of a tragedy for the local ski resorts. They will lose a ton of revenue in the heart of the ski season.

[Jesse]

True!

 

There are some small snow fields that usually stay through the entire Summer up there. Not gonna happen this year!

 

The horrors of global climate change sure are fun to follow in real time!

 

We are very privileged to witness such excitement!

[Deweydog]

The horrors of global climate change sure are fun to follow in real time!

 

We are very privileged to witness such excitement!

I miss December Jesse.

[Jesse]

I miss December Jesse.

 

Global warming is upsetting.

[Deweydog]

Global warming is upsetting.

So is watching it being taken so routinely out of context.

[Jesse]

So is watching it being taken so routinely out of context.

 

Mid-winter warm events like this have gotten more and more common in recent years/decades. Denying that is like putting blinders on. Sure, no one event can be blamed on global warming, but there has been a strong trend toward a higher frequency of mid-winter torches of this nature.

 

Just peruse the list of top warm Januaries for many spots on the PNW. The last 10-15 years are getting a lot of love.

 

Might as well call it what it is. I don't understand the strong reaction from you whenever I do so. You're a smart guy.

[TT-SEA]

65 at KBFI today.    

 

More drama from Jesse.    So tiring.    Don't remember him crying and bitching about the record cold in the spring of 2010 and 2011 and what appeared to be runaway global cooling centered in the PNW.     Native flora and fauna could suffer greatly if its too cold.  

[Front Ranger]

Paradise was pretty torchy in January 2013, about 4 degrees above normal.

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6898

 

That's at 6000', so above the inversions and pretty indicative of what the 850mb temps looked like. 

 

Government Camp is a bit closer to Jesse, which is why I mentioned that mountain station. 

 

There certainly was a distinct south/north temp gradient that month at the 850mb level. 

 

 

[Jesse]

Global warming is clearly a joke that none of should take seriously. Let's all just pretend it isn't happening.

 

I will never bring it up again.

 

All of the plants and animals going extinct right now thanks to the actions of mankind in what is quickly becoming one of the great mass extinction events in the history of the planet just need to "nut up" too.

 

I'm sure none of this will ever come to bite us in the a**. It's all a joke that we should downplay or even outright ignore.

 

Such a scientifically sophisticated forum we have here.

 

Enjoy the disturbingly balmy January weather everyone. Why it's almost like JUNE-uary out there! LOL!!

[Deweydog]

Mid-winter warm events like this have gotten more and more common in recent years/decades. Denying that is like putting blinders on. Sure, no one event can be blamed on global warming, but there has been a strong trend toward a higher frequency of mid-winter torches of this nature.

 

Just peruse the list of top warm Januaries for many spots on the PNW. The last 10-15 years are getting a lot of love.

 

Might as well call it what it is. I don't understand the strong reaction from you whenever I do so. You're a smart guy.

It's one thing to look at the big picture and clearly see we are living in a slowly warming climate. It's another to repeatedly trumpet relatively short term oscillations as being direct resultants of long term trends. Warmth happens and has happened.

This winter had all the earmarks of being fairly mild and benign. It might be another story if things were aligned nicely from a forcing perspective and see things turn out so atypical. There were no real mysteries here.

 

I also wonder about your "more common" comment. I wonder just how factual that is as opposed to just being a knee-jerk assumption based on the fact our Januaries have been weenieriffically frustrating on a fairly consistent basis. As of this point, I've yet to see a climate change/benign January connection beyond anything on par with your out-of-context comments.

[Front Ranger]

Mid-winter warm events like this have gotten more and more common in recent years/decades. Denying that is like putting blinders on. Sure, no one event can be blamed on global warming, but there has been a strong trend toward a higher frequency of mid-winter torches of this nature.

 

Just peruse the list of top warm Januaries for many spots on the PNW. The last 10-15 years are getting a lot of love.

 

Might as well call it what it is. I don't understand the strong reaction from you whenever I do so. You're a smart guy.

 

So global warming is running away with January, but forgetting about December?

[Front Ranger]

Global warming is clearly a joke that none of should take seriously. Let's all just pretend it isn't happening.

 

I will never bring it up again.

 

All of the plants and animals going extinct right now thanks to the actions of mankind in what is quickly becoming one of the great mass extinction events in the history of the planet just need to "nut up" too.

 

I'm sure none of this will ever come to bite us in the a**. It's all a joke that we should downplay or even outright ignore.

 

Such a scientifically sophisticated forum we have here.

 

Enjoy the disturbingly balmy January weather everyone. Why it's almost like JUNE-uary out there! LOL!!

 

Your viewpoint on this is way too black/white, and way too influenced by the current weather pattern and where you live.

 

Just because someone doesn't think that every warm anomaly is caused by global warming doesn't mean they think it's a joke. Happy mediums are not mythical.

[TT-SEA]

Global warming is clearly a joke that none of should take seriously. Let's all just pretend it isn't happening.

 

I will never bring it up again.

 

All of the plants and animals going extinct right now thanks to the actions of mankind in what is quickly becoming one of the great mass extinction events in the history of the planet just need to "nut up" too.

 

I'm sure none of this will ever come to bite us in the a**. It's all a joke that we should downplay or even outright ignore.

 

Such a scientifically sophisticated forum we have here.

 

Enjoy the disturbingly balmy January weather everyone. Why it's almost like JUNE-uary out there! LOL!!

 

 

OMG!!!!!!!

 

Can we fix this right now??????????????????

 

Can we stop Asia from dumping insane amounts of pollution into the environment???     Maybe the sun will save us by becoming quiet and then we will be praying for more warmth???   Maybe a big volcanic eruption??

 

And guess what Jesse... this land will be buried in ice in the blink of a geological eye.   ALL THE TREES AND ANIMALS WILL DIE.    Just enjoy the ride because YOU DON'T CONTROL IT.   

[Jesse]

It's one thing to look at the big picture and clearly see we are living in a slowly warming climate. It's another to repeatedly trumpet relatively short term oscillations as being direct resultants of long term trends. Warmth happens and has happened.

This winter had all the earmarks of being fairly mild and benign. It might be another story if things were aligned nicely from a forcing perspective and see things turn out so atypical. There were no real mysteries here.

 

I also wonder about your "more common" comment. I wonder just how factual that is as opposed to just being a knee-jerk assumption based on the fact our Januaries have been weenieriffically frustrating on a fairly consistent basis. As of this point, I've yet to see a climate change/benign January connection beyond anything on par with your out-of-context comments.

 

Dude, the writing is on the wall. If you are going to acknowledge that our climate is slowly warming, I don't see how you can't acknowledge that our glut of record-setting warm events in the past 2-3 decades might have some connection to this fact.

 

Of course the current ridge can't be DIRECTLY blamed on global warming. But it sure makes this kind of thing a hell of a lot more likely. How many all-time January records have fallen across the west the past few days? We do this kind of thing at the drop of a hat lately.