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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


Skagit Weather

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Lol, remember that period between the 10th and 20th that was supposed to be warm across the US? Goes to show that a high wavenumber regimen can outweight a +EPO/+AO/+NAO:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/F78e6d/640.jpg

 

January as a whole has been an absolute icebox for a lot of people:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/YcNxx6/640.jpg

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It sounds pretty major.

 

Anyhow...like I said, it seems like you've been focusing on the recent warm anomalies (which are 95% due to persistent patterns) as a reason why the PNW is becoming "more Mediterranean", and then concluding that good winter events are going to become less and less common - yet, the Willamette Valley just had an impressively snowy winter, one of the snowiest in the past 40 years. Arctic outbreaks have been quite common in recent years. There is nothing to indicate that good patterns still won't deliver good results, by and large.

 

Just seemed like one of those things where you have a shift in thinking, but the shift might have gone too far.

 

You do have the fact the January average has gone up 4 degrees for SEA since 1975...just sayin.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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45" of snow and a 32/23 average in December? You could do a lot worse.

 

I was surprised to see they actually average more snow than Missoula (39") even though Spokane is 1,400 feet lower.

 

Missoula has a much lower normal water equivalent though and it is quite a bit colder.  I have also seen a normal of 45" for Missoula from some stations.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I am becoming more of a realist. Nothing more, nothing less. :)

Looks like the ridging has screwed with your psyche more than anything. Truth is, you won't realize it until the low-frequency pattern(s) actually change course, because you're hearing so much in the way of hype from politically motivated zealots.

 

I don't blame you for your apathy..the clowns are really going to town with their rhetoric and hyperbole right now. Just laugh it off.

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Lol, remember that period between the 10th and 20th that was supposed to be warm across the US? Goes to show that a high wavenumber regimen can outweight a +EPO/+AO/+NAO:

 

 

January as a whole has been an absolute icebox for a lot of people:

 

 

I really don't care.  The winter has been a disaster for us.

 

I have no idea what it is going to take to finally get those D**n heights up over the GOA.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nothing happened last night. That hope has been gradually slipping away from me for years. :lol:

Well rest assured the climate is probably changing slower than your increasing ability to accept it for what it is. Flatiron is right though, you seem to have swung too far to the dark side, likely due to a little July through January PTSD.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like the ridging has screwed with your psyche more than anything. Truth is, you won't realize it until the low-frequency pattern(s) actually change course, because you're hearing so much in the way of hype from politically motivated zealots.

 

I don't blame you for your apathy..the clowns are really going to town with their rhetoric and hyperbole right now. Just laugh it off.

Oh honey... You've got to see the irony here.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I really don't care. The winter has been a disaster for us.

 

I have no idea what it is going to take to finally get those D**n heights up over the GOA.

Wavenumber is way too high..wavelengths right now are more reminiscent of those you'd see in September or October..it's crazy. An Aleutian high right now will correlate to a GOA trough..it's that bad.

 

You can blame this on the fact that the Hadley Cells are broad and biased well poleward relative to normal..this is affecting mass transport/eddy flux in a major way.

 

This Hadley Cell behavior can be blamed on the -QBO/+Solar regimen. I'm really missing the solar min years right now..lol

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Oh honey... You've got to see the irony here.

Looks more like bad interpretation on your part, to me at least. I'm not really into the hyperbolic s**t.

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Well rest assured the climate is probably changing slower than your increasing ability to accept it for what it is. Flatiron is right though, you seem to have swung too far to the dark side, likely due to a little July through January PTSD.

I haven't said anything that you yourself haven't said in so many words. I know it's important for you to be the most level-headed guy in the room though, so I'll let you have this one.

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The one thing that could re-shuffle this wonky mass transport regimen in short order is..yup..a PV breakdown. Right now, you've got wave-driving reminiscent of a -NAM, and tropically-sourced inertial resonance favoring a +NAM. It's a battle, and the PV is the middle man.

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Ahh.

I can be flamboyant w/ my descriptions and opinions, no doubt. But everything I say/do is based on research.

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I haven't said anything that you yourself haven't said in so many words. I know it's important for you to be the most level-headed guy in the room though, so I'll let you have this one.

I've never jumped on the whole Mediterranean bandwagon. It's dumb on multiple levels. Our climate isn't changing before our eyes as you've alluded to many times over the last few months. Simply acknowledging we are and will likely continue to live in a slowly warming climate doesn't have to be a major revelation.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Wavenumber is way too high..wavelengths right now are more reminiscent of those you'd see in September or October..it's crazy. An Aleutian high right now will correlate to a GOA trough..it's that bad.

 

You can blame this on the fact that the Hadley Cells are broad and biased well poleward relative to normal..this is affecting mass transport/eddy flux in a major way.

 

This Hadley Cell behavior can be blamed on the -QBO/+Solar regimen. I'm really missing the solar min years right now..lol

 

At least the solar has dropped quite a bit the past several days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At least the solar has dropped quite a bit the past several days.

Yeah, if solar drops off now, we feel the effects w/ FW timing in April/May..lovely. :rolleyes:

 

For winter, solar matters most from August to November. After that, it's a question of whether winter terminates in March, or May.

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I think 2013 was the year I got more snow in April/May than I did from November 23rd to January 10th. Lol if that happens again.

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Others with differing opinions would likely say exactly the same thing.

I tell myself, if you don't throw all your passion at what you love..you suck. :)

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I think I've run out of ways to express how much the current pattern we are in sucks. Just really nothing more to add.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wavenumber is way too high..wavelengths right now are more reminiscent of those you'd see in September or October..it's crazy. An Aleutian high right now will correlate to a GOA trough..it's that bad.

 

 

Its actually almost laughable that some of the ensembles are showing just that.  I big Aleutian ridge pops up, trough into the gulf of Alaska, mild SW flow for the PNW.  Aleutian low or Aleutian high, resulting in the same crap pattern for us. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015011900/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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Its actually almost laughable that some of the ensembles are showing just that.  I big Aleutian ridge pops up, trough into the gulf of Alaska, mild SW flow for the PNW.  Aleutian low or Aleutian high, resulting in the same crap pattern for us. 

 

Yeah...this climate is almost unbearable for weather enthusiasts when we get into this kind of crap. This totally reminds of complete turds like 1991-92 and 2002-03. All we can do is hope the Nino doesn't make another attempt this year thus ruining next winter also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Looks like the ridging has screwed with your psyche more than anything. Truth is, you won't realize it until the low-frequency pattern(s) actually change course, because you're hearing so much in the way of hype from politically motivated zealots.

 

I don't blame you for your apathy..the clowns are really going to town with their rhetoric and hyperbole right now. Just laugh it off.

 

Would that my perception was such that I could see into to understand these ideas better. 

---
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Would that my perception was such that I could see into to understand these ideas better.

I presume you intended to type "wish" instead of "would"? Or something along those lines?

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Its actually almost laughable that some of the ensembles are showing just that. I big Aleutian ridge pops up, trough into the gulf of Alaska, mild SW flow for the PNW. Aleutian low or Aleutian high, resulting in the same crap pattern for us.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015011900/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

It is laughable..wavelengths were longer back in July/August, in some respects. Looking back, there aren't any years like this one in modern history (as far as +EF/+HC/+ENSO is concerned).

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Ouch..if the 06z GFS is correct w/ its strat forecast, winter is over in the West. Major step backwards w/ the +MT delayed, allowing the PV to go barotropic before the next round of bombardments.

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Yeah...this climate is almost unbearable for weather enthusiasts when we get into this kind of crap. This totally reminds of complete turds like 1991-92 and 2002-03. All we can do is hope the Nino doesn't make another attempt this year thus ruining next winter also.

If we see a Niño next winter, it'll probably be a 2006-07 type deal..we'll have a +QBO/-HC/+Solar to go along with it.

 

That said, I don't think a Niño is in the cards, at this time.

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Ouch..if the 06z GFS is correct w/ its strat forecast, winter is over in the West. Major step backwards w/ the +MT delayed, allowing the PV to go barotropic before the next round of bombardments.

What do you mean winter is over if that strat forecast verifies? Does that mean that California is likely not to get another drop of rain for the rest of the season?

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So I take it all the models are still showing nothing of interest?

 

Looks great at 240 hours!    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This winter is a once in a decade dud.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Might be time to get the boat and jetski in the water!

Looks great at 240 hours!    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Most of our recent winters since 2008 were once in a decade duds.

I strongly disagree with that statement for obvious factual reasons. The 2009-2014 period wasn't terrible historically speaking. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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