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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/26/19 in Posts

  1. Friday was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol. Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being. A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence.  This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft. https://youtu.be/5zVLRH_qMis (Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.) After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season!
    7 points
  2. We had a great time up in the mountains of Payson, AZ yesterday during our hike and then our lunch break at Willow Springs Lake (7,500ft elevation). While it was 100% sunny, the cool temps (low 60's) and breezy conditions made it a bit chilly in the shade and you needed to put on a hoodie. There was nearly a 30 degree difference in temps from the top of the Rim to the valley floor. We left the lake around 2:00pm with an outside temp of 62F and drove for 2 hours back home into the 90F heat! Today it will be in the mid 80's and possibly a Record cold high for Memorial Day of only 77F! Pretty wild weather here as it will snow again in Flagstaff tomorrow.
    4 points
  3. Up at our neighbors beach house at Samish Bay...clearing out nicely now!
    3 points
  4. Jealous of all the pics you guys are able to get of a twister. Great work everyone! With as active as it has been for many of you recently, I just realized that I’ve only seen one thunderstorm so far this spring. The trend of greater instability to my south looks to continue tomorrow. All we’ll get up this way is some stratiform rain most likely. But, 75F and bright blue skies today. Can’t complain. Hope everyone stays safe and have a nice rest of the holiday weekend.
    3 points
  5. It seems to rain almost daily around here. So often it's hard to keep track almost! Late last eve some tiny showers happened to move across with several downpours and strong 0.40" of rain. Then more showers and light rain well after midnight ending this morning brought another 0.40" or so for a total of 0.83". For the previous event I ended up with a total of around 1.30" . May 22 & 23 were the only days with no measurable rainfall here since the 15th of May! Yesterday I toured around the neighborhood a bit to see how much damage there was. Some people were cleaning up, but I'm thankful it wasn't to bad overall.
    2 points
  6. Yet another day I've been dropped out of the slight risk and the Texas Panhandle ends up being the place to be. C'monnnnnnnnn.
    2 points
  7. Post your rain totals this year. Keep a running tally as we go through this very interesting year. Back it up to the first of the year if you can. Let's see just how crazy it gets by Dec. 31st !
    1 point
  8. Yeah it definitely was a very wet period from 2014-2017. Average varies around the sound obviously but most places average about 36 inches a year. So getting 45-50 inches 4 years straight is definitely not normal.
    1 point
  9. Wouldn't pay too much attention to that. Uncapped CAPE all looks to be in Northeast Kansas, with the warm front basically on the state line, MAYBE sagging up towards Beatrice.
    1 point
  10. Because I have family and academic commitments that need to be completed.
    1 point
  11. DMX going with widespread 2-3" and Waterloo bullseye of 3-4" by Tuesday night. Also most of Iowa already in a moderate risk for Tuesday.
    1 point
  12. 1-3 inches of rain overnight tonight. Hmm going to be a soaker. Definitely watching Tuesday. But very interesting tornado warning over by Denver.
    1 point
  13. Not buying any long term drying/warming trends past d7. Signs looking to start fading cooler in the central states again. Probably accompanied by more rainfall. Our Southeastern US corn producers might be carrying the load this season when all is said and done. Really will be interesting to see how the next 3 weeks play out.
    1 point
  14. Apparently KLMT recorded light snow earlier this morning, but I am sure I stayed up until 5am (not really sure WHY!) and it was moderately raining up at this house. T'storms look very possible today here. Radar and the way the sky looks reminds me of a stretch of storms I had in May 2013, which consisted of a lot of easterly flow. Not a common directional flow but it has been shown to be convective. Speaking of that stretch, I had storms on the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th that May in 2013, one of the longest consecutive t'storm periods in K-Falls, next to one in 1998 I think (or '96? Have to look at my notes).
    1 point
  15. I could definitely hear the roar, but early on it was more of a whistle. Many chasers were out in the plains, and even the ones that were in the Midwest were spread out across Iowa and Illinois, lot of bust potential on this setup. My attention now turns to Tuesday...
    1 point
  16. Super day today... 70s, light wind, pleasant humidity.
    1 point
  17. It's been the year for Texas Panhandle storms. May rock and Roll again today. I don't know how the DFW area has managed to avoid the really bad stuff but I'm okay with that. It seems to jump over us then hit NE Texas....that isn't normal at all. Looks like a crazy summer for us all.
    1 point
  18. 2500-4500 cape and decent wind shear on Tuesday going to be a bumpy afternoon/evening.
    1 point
  19. Great work! Were you close enough to hear the roar of the twister? That was an intense supercell as you mentioned and it surely was notable in your video. Surprised there weren’t more storm chasers in the area tracking that beast. Good luck next time!
    1 point
  20. Tuesday is looking interesting. Definitely going to be watching that day.
    1 point
  21. Des Moines NWS discussing Tuesday... Tuesday continues to be the target for potential significant severe weather across Iowa as a potent upper closed upper level low pressure lifts northeast into western Nebraska. Numerous high impact past events are showing up in the 72 hr CIPS Analogs this past run including 6/4/2008, 5/27/1995 and 5/22/2008 to name a few. Each had numerous supercells with tornadoes in addition to damaging winds and very large hail. The synoptic environment certainly looks conducive for a repeat with the warm front stretched across the state, which at this time, appears to be somewhere between Highway 20 and Interstate 80. This will be a highly forced dynamic system which should erode the morning/early afternoon capping inversion with the potential for explosive supercell development. Certainly will continue to monitor the situation. SPC has placed the area under an Enhanced risk for severe weather Tuesday. Reference SWODY3 for additional details. If the situation continues to evolve as expected, likely this risk will be upgraded with future forecasts.
    1 point
  22. It sure has been a wet May as Grand Rapids is now at 5.00" Muskegon is at 5.99" Kalamazoo is at 5.01" to the east Lansing has had much less rain and sets at 2.37" It still has not officially reached 80 or better at Grand Rapids this year. The high here at my house yesterday was 76 (78 at GRR)
    1 point
  23. Nicely done Sparky! Figure'd you'd be on it as it was down by Kalona. Was that your first? I'll add my little chase account in the next post. The reason I always post chase accounts here last is because uploading images to this site is a massive, massive PITA. The site is very picky about which images it likes and which it doesn't for some reason.
    1 point
  24. Looks like there was quite an intense thunderstorm in the mountains north of Ventura.
    1 point
  25. Just walked to the grocery store and walking on the grass was like walking on a wet sponge. We can't take any more rain.
    1 point
  26. Other than a few showers earlier this afternoon, it is a pretty decent Saturday afternoon weatherwise w temps in the 70s. It feels a tad humid. First time this season I am using this word for my area.
    1 point
  27. Temp only got up to 79 (heat index up to 81), but it felt even warmer than that. Probably because I’m not used to it actually being warm yet.
    1 point
  28. I'm thankful for another year of grace, liberty and freedom that was provided for me by greater sacrifice than I could give. I'm thankful every day for that. God bless the USA and the men and women who have laid down all for us. Happy Memorial Day Weekend
    1 point
  29. Good morning all, hope everyone on here can enjoy this Memorial Day weekend with family and friends. Whether your firing up the grill and cooking up some BBQ, heading to the beach or just chillaxin' on the deck...have a safe and relaxing weekend. I'm heading up to the high country again to Payson, AZ to tackle another hike and then probably settle down at a picnic area just up the road climbing to the Mogollon Rim where there are a couple lakes. The smell of the pines is amazing up that way and the weather will be noticeable cooler for the time of year. Only supposed to be in the mid 60's with sunny skies. Let's not forget all of our veterans who have served and are currently serving our wonderful armed forces across the Globe. #Memorial Day
    1 point
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