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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/06/19 in all areas

  1. 12z is looking pretty wet and also wetter than previous runs (00 and 06). Wonder if this trend will continue.
    5 points
  2. Is this Bearing Sea storm due by 9/12 - /9/13 the first clues to the new LRC??? Using the BSR, we can extrapolate out into the future and get an idea on what the opening week of October may look like. Given the track of this system being forecasted by the majority of all the global models, I'm predicting a strong northern stream storm coming out of the northern Rockies during the opening week of October. I know this is a September thread, but I thought I'd post my thoughts here and challenge myself. I'm becoming more convinced day by day that we open up October with a SW ridge, Arcitc Blocking and a dominant NW Flow as PAC systems will be taking a La Nina (ish) type of storm track. Certainly opposite of how we opened up October last year. The signals to me are speaking loudly and the models are starting to point that way. Taking a look at the CFSv2 weekly map, the one below foretell's what I've envisioned since August.
    4 points
  3. Officially made it to 79F yesterday so our streak of no 80’s continues. Highs in the mid 60s this weekend. Bonfires galore.
    3 points
  4. Another day with an autumnal feel in the air. Cloudy, cool and a nice breeze out ahead of an approaching CF. Took a stroll around the neighborhood and noticed a couple trees with a lot of leaves changing color. I don't know what kind of trees they are but they usually turn color first. I saw a fall color map of out of MN DNR page and it compared this year to the previous 2 years and it doesn't really show accelerated color change. That might change in the following week or two. Here's the link: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/fall_colors/compare.html
    3 points
  5. Man, if feels Autumn-like outside. Awesome! Some colors are also starting to show on a few trees.
    3 points
  6. Interesting post. Thanks for taking time and sharing your thoughts. Sometimes when I’m reviewing a video I shot of an approaching thunderstorm I’ll notice the birds or crickets, etc chirping merrily, but when I was shooting I didn’t really even notice those sounds probably because I was more interested in the storms right then. But I enjoy videos with those sounds, and in real time too, of course!
    2 points
  7. I’m putting everyone and the weather on ignore. #ultimatecontrol #keepthinskinintact
    2 points
  8. I wouldn't say I enjoy the extreme and dewpoints(humidity being the worse), but if it's a very hot and muggy day I just stay inside of course. For me late spring/summer has always been the more enjoyable part of the year. There's usually storms and severe weather and I chase quite a bit. I love landscaping/flowers. I enjoy the birds at our feeder and all the other wildlife that is out. We just found a prairie ring neck snake in our backyard a couple of days ago here in the middle of Omaha Summer afternoons and evenings swimming with my daughters in our backyard pool or at a city pool is one of my favorite things. We also have our yearly family camping trips with both sides of the family in the summer. I just enjoy the sounds and "feel" of the air on a warm summer evening. The days are long and it's not dark by the time you get home from work. I obviously have some interest in winter since I'm here. My interest really is only with snowstorms/blizzards though. Here in Nebraska with the average snowfall of just 25" or so, that means the majority of the winter is boring with no storms, the ground is brown and ugly, the trees bare, minimal birds/wildlife, the days short where it's dark when you get home from work. The extreme cold I've found has always hurt my bones. If it could be 25-30 degrees all winter, I'd like it much more. I don't do winter sports. With the spotty snows and depending on timing of the day of the week, etc it's been relatively hard to take my daughters sledding when there's either fresh snow on the weekend or it's not too cold for them or the snow is too hard and crusty. At any rate, I'll end my rant now Today is quite a bit cooler and way less humid and with a nice north breeze. Hopefully will get some nice storms tomorrow evening and overnight here as there's an 80% chance right now. I'd love to be able to get some lightning shots.
    2 points
  9. Impressive how the Gulf Stream is holding Dorian together despite strong NWerly shear and mid-level dry air intrusion. If conditions were more favorable aloft, it’s a good bet Dorian would be a Cat3 right now. Easy to see how New Jersey could have been struck by a Cat4 in the 19th century.
    2 points
  10. 2 points
  11. Yeah, looking like a great soaking. Could be the death blow to any sort of fire season. Which is good since apparently lightning started a bunch of new fires down south overnight. Most of the next week is looking pretty fall like. Even with that shortwave ridging building in late in the week we will see less muggy weather and cooler nights.
    2 points
  12. can’t wait either! Latest gfs run looking more and more fall like with each run for this Sunday and Monday. Latest runs seem wetter than the previous runs for western OR and WA.
    2 points
  13. My, your temps have wild up and down swings compared to eastern Iowa! And Michigan probably is less so than my area. I topped out at only 79° yesterday. The WPC was really juiced for parts of Iowa the last two runs. Let's hope it stays that way.
    2 points
  14. It's fappening! Nocturnal lighting. Rain is finally starting to stick.
    2 points
  15. It has been more than two weeks since our big soakers. I am currently working on part of my yard and the top 2-3 inches of soil is bone dry again.
    2 points
  16. aka The Mitt's dream scenario. Ofc, their map last year had Okwx2k4 dreaming and we know how that worked out. Nonetheless, verbatim, that would have LES belts looking like this again:
    2 points
  17. Down to 63 and still dropping like a low solar rock.
    1 point
  18. That moreso applies to longer-range forecasts though. Usually they're less warm biased for mid-range outlooks like the ones posted above.
    1 point
  19. Cool onshore flow seems to be increasing. Temp has dropped about 8 degrees since 4pm here, down to 66.
    1 point
  20. Truly shocking stuff down there. That missing chaser feared dead, he did "surface" a day or two later. He may think twice next time..
    1 point
  21. Looking good for a nice soaking over the next couple weeks.
    1 point
  22. Headed right for Nova Scotia now. National Hurricane Center @NHC_Atlantic NEW: The Canadian Hurricane Centre @ECCC_CHC has issued Hurricane Warnings for a large part of Nova Scotia, with Hurricane Watches for Prince Edward Island and southwestern Newfoundland. https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1170052132965216257
    1 point
  23. It's happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm
    1 point
  24. You must be planning a lot of staycations at the Stampede Pass Holiday Inn Express. #climatechange #ugh
    1 point
  25. Looks like summer is sticking around for most of us. Wet and warm the next couple of weeks on average.
    1 point
  26. 1 point
  27. I feel like I would click the "View it anyway" option quite a lot.
    1 point
  28. Too bad he has you on ignore. That’s a pretty sexy map.
    1 point
  29. U.S. landfall (barely) as a Cat 1. Trump protects America yet again.
    1 point
  30. That WPAC typhoon is occurring under boundary conditions that will respond easily to its diabatic/t-fluxes. Could be a large/amplified NPAC response later this month.
    1 point
  31. I can only say that Atlanta is very different from the DFW area. We don't get the afternoon rains that Atlanta gets that turn the area into a sauna. I wouldn't live there either. Southern climate varies and the farther you go west, the more tolerable it is in terms of humidity. All coast lines are the same from Brownsvill, to Washington DC in the summer. I don't care for coastlines. I understand that you are not a fan at all about the south. We understand that down here. But we keep telling folks that want to leave theirareas north due to taxation, it's a trade. If they can't do it, stay where they are or find somewhere else. Many leave and natives are cool with that. Our state has grown by 35-40% It will change us in ways we do not like. Our culture is strong though outside of big cities. They won't change that.
    1 point
  32. Latest run brings in another wet system next Saturday/Sunday out of the NW. Would be nice to see that verify.
    1 point
  33. 1 point
  34. It’d be nice to start seeing some lows in the 40s. Have only had 5 nights in the 40s since 6/15, and the last one being 7/20. We’ve had 30 nights this summer 58+. Getting a night below 55 degrees was rare this summer.
    1 point
  35. Looks pretty fall-like this weekend with clouds and showers with 60s and low 70s but it's back to summer next week with 80s and humidity. Get that ridge out of here. I feel for you guys in the plains and down south where its hot and humid constantly.
    1 point
  36. Yup, in terms of the last decade, 2018 was the only year really that had a quick start to the onset of snow cover across Canada and we all know how the cold came early and often last Autumn. I'm seeing the same signal this year and quite frankly, some stronger signals than last year across our region instead of it being centered farther west/north where the cold held on for most of the Autumn. I'm favoring a much different pattern this coming cold season for our region as the SW/West coast ridge is going to be a main Exhibit of the new LRC. Lot's of volatility across the Plains states. These are just my early thoughts. Last Autumn, the SER was very strong which kept us in a volatile temp pattern and an active storm track throughout the Autumn...
    1 point
  37. Looking back, yesterday one year ago I had 3.40" of rain with much of it falling in one hours time! The weather seemed to follow a monthly pattern for awhile last fall, though I think it was just a chance happening since I'm not a big believer in organized wx patterns and more in the randomness of nature. My area had very heavy rainfall in early September and October, and again in early November and December, but to a lesser degree partly due to climo.
    1 point
  38. There's a fine line between bicker and banter.
    1 point
  39. It's crazy how the bickering just doesn't stop.
    1 point
  40. I agree though I would rather have 70°s to low 80°s. I’m not a big fan of winter with such short days and much more dreary cloudy conditions. This summer wasn’t to bad except the first few weeks in July were to hot and humid and it was the only warmer and much dryer than normal month. August and June weren’t bad at all. I’m not expecting any likes on this post (lol) with most of you on here loving cold weather, and that’s ok to like cold!
    1 point
  41. Oh for sure. Many way worse burn scenarios during the winter months, lol. I was simply saying that this was the worst rain FAIL of the numerous times this summer here.
    1 point
  42. Thanks Tom! That's exactly the kind of map I meant. Two comments. I remember autumn of '13 was quite mild until the 3rd week of October, then Ma Nature showed her hand. Also, it looks like of all the autumns since, only 2018 seems to have had a much earlier than normal onset of snow cover across Canada.
    1 point
  43. This morning I had the lowest temp so far, with 52°. Had 53° twice before though. It’s around 80° now with dews in the mid 60°s. Sure are having nice weather IMO. While mowing lawn today I noticed there are still are some good sized cracks in the yard even though the grass is nice and green. So we definitely need more rain. The grass probably won’t grow as fast next week unless it rains over the weekend.
    1 point
  44. Not only are the leaves changing color, but some of them are already starting to fall now. We haven’t hit 80F since August 20. Today’s high is forecasted to be 80F but we might not make it due to filtered sunshine. It could be our last time reaching 80 for the year. If we don’t make it to 80 again this will be the earliest ‘last 80’ on record. The only other time the ‘last 80’ occurred in August was August 30 1924. Still plenty of time left for a surprise warm up however. But based on the medium range forecast it’s certainly possible we could set the record this year.
    1 point
  45. I've lived down here all my life. Experienced it. Hate it. I've also spent a few 10-12 hour straight nights working in subzero weather, ice, and snow (2011, 2014), and I'd say cold wins, hands down. I can do cold better even without acclimation better than I can heat.
    1 point
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