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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/19/20 in all areas

  1. Hi, new member here from Brookings. How is everybody?
    7 points
  2. GFS now seems on board with a nice little mountain snow producer the middle of next week.
    6 points
  3. How hott next summer ends up is literally the last thing I want to worry about right now.
    5 points
  4. Our good window for big snow events really seems to be about January 1-March 25th. It seems like once we get into February/March it doesn't take much for snow here, whereas earlier in the winter, especially before say January 10th, it takes a really significant trough/airmass to deliver meaningful snowfall. In a decade up here we have had about 5 4"+ snow events before January 10th. Whereas we have had in the range of 15-20 such events later on.
    5 points
  5. Icy out there this morning. With a mix of showers and clear breaks overnight, a lot of the moisture froze up pretty good. 32.6F for the low.
    5 points
  6. As I've mentioned before on here. If you are buying a station mainly for wind I recommend a wired station. That way you get instantaneous updates on the windspeed. With wireless it usually samples every two or three seconds. Watching the gusts is more fun with the constant update.
    5 points
  7. Hahaha that poor guy was confused as hell. I think he left after he kept trying to get the forum stoked that it was gonna snow in Arizona but instead everyone was just pissed. The version of hazing here is if you're a new poster everyone insists you're a former troll. You gotta keep posting through it.
    4 points
  8. After what I assume is 3 months of planning and whiteboarding names and a full backstory, CulverJosh attempts to catfish the forum and gets caught in less than 10 minutes. This forum is more suspicious of newcomers than the family in Dogtooth
    4 points
  9. Well since this winter season is an apparent write off with bad Hadley cells and terrible WHAM numbers...What should we talk about now?
    4 points
  10. That’s about what I’ve been expecting in the lowlands: close to climo averages for snow. The mountains should do really well, though. Can’t understand all the upset over a snow-free November. That’s quite often the case. Dec, Jan, and Feb historically are when most lowland snow events happen.
    4 points
  11. I rarely post on long range- and I'am cold/snow biased- so take that into account . I will admit it. Without posting maps (as Iam sure many look at and what Beltrami posted in the other thread) things are not looking good (if you like winter) for the next several weeks at least-- maybe imo, through most of DEC, if not into JAN. Systems will roll through but likely without enough cold air to produce winter precip outside of maybe the far North. IMO- the longevity of the tropical season (not totally shut down btw) with the LA nina in place is more akin to back loaded winters (if you wanna call it that- I don't- as I see winter over (starting?) by Jan 15th or so with rapidly increasing sun angle and daylight- especially here in IA) -- I see an overall winter - in the best like 98-99. That's a stretch at this juncture... For sure a DEC to remember for (cold and snow) is again not going to happen and WHAT you want to build on cold and snow. It may get winter like in FEB/MARCH like it has the past several years (out of many) , but this winter is looking blah at BEST-- and FTR- I've done long range forecasting in the past for ski resorts (Lutsen Mtns in MN in the early 2010's) .. I just don't see "real" winter this season until sometime after Jan 15th for many reading this S of 45N latitude. I hope i'am wrong of course but the trends and setups of teleconnections don't look favorable until maybe late winter. Carry on.
    4 points
  12. The drier weather should allow me to make preparations for when January 1950 inevitably hits.
    3 points
  13. Re-strengthening and a major trade burst is ongoing.
    3 points
  14. 30 hours ago it was a string of 20's and this pm a string of 60's. Quite the ride we're taking. 65F for the high so we blasted past the 59F forecast. Finished my autumn yard chores and got started on holiday lights. About 7-10 days earlier than usual but I cannot remember stringing 'em up in shirt sleeves before.
    3 points
  15. Here in T-town we have only had 0.73" of precip since Oct 1 which is only about 21% of normal, though we do have rain chances during the next week. Dry and warm has been the rule with Nov temp anomaly running at +4.3F for the month. I sure hope Dec-Feb is not like this...lol
    3 points
  16. A thin band of moderate-heavy rain is about to pass. Icing is a concern with temps being around freezing.
    3 points
  17. Suns back out again. Nice mix of rain, ice pellets and sunshine today up to 0.50”.
    3 points
  18. We are pretty sheltered here and tend to decouple really quickly on clear nights. We get a lot of winter nights that see temperatures bounce around freezing when we are in a showery airmass. End result is a lot of black ice.
    3 points
  19. I actually have a sense of peace about this winter. That's a real rarity for me.
    3 points
  20. Looks like the models are converging upon the idea of the next week drying out a little, but staying relatively cool with clipper like systems brushing us every couple days. Should continue to add to the mountain snowpack and give us some cooler anomalies down here at the surface.
    3 points
  21. The further south you go the bigger the blast was in 2010. It's not every year we get over a foot of snow and below zero temperatures around Thanksgiving in K-Falls. That had to have been a once in a generation type November blast. I missed the whole thing, but it did continue snowing more inches into early December. From 11/20 > 12/03 we had like 2/3rd's of my seasonal average in those two weeks. Dried out a bit towards mid December and it got snowy again 2nd half of the month. Had a nice little blizzard event day before my birthday on 12/29/2010. January was bone dry, but February brought more goods.
    3 points
  22. I'm not sure what the models are catching onto, but I'm seeing a good indication on a wide variety of models for a cold pattern the final week of December. The 6z CFS run showed a monthly average 8C below normal (surface temps) for the month of January in Seattle. Would love to see that verify.
    3 points
  23. Today looks to be another mild and windy day. Several items come to mind for this November. 1. How warm it has been. 2. How windy it has been. and 3. how much sunshine we have had. Today forecast is for highs in the lower 60's while todays record high is 74 set in 1930 and it has reached 70 or better 3 times. But if it reaches into the lower 60's this would only be the 14th time it has reached 60 or better on November 19th in Grand Rapids recorded history.'
    3 points
  24. Grizz, love reading your input and I agree with you, that we will prob have to deal with marginal events around our region as I don't see a "true" arctic source of air to tap over the next couple weeks. That's not to say someone may get lucky and see some snow into early December. I will say, however, with growing confidence as more data comes in, that by Dec 5th onward, the North American 500mb pattern will veer away from the trough in the west and begin to shift towards better blocking across western NAMER, but esp eastern Canada and Greenland. It'll be a slow process but I believe it's going to happen. IMHO, this will be a different December in terms of blocking and a more seasonal month compared to the blow torch's we have seen in recent years. I'm really getting a good feeling about next month producing a favorable pattern for our Sub to see winter storms before the Christmas holidays. Based on my research and previous posts regarding the 10/30/50mb maps I've shown before, I'm going to ride the idea we will see the west coast ridge begin to pop post Dec 5th onward. In fact, after reviewing the latest JMA weeklies, I'm convinced it will happen even more because it is agreeing with my thoughts...LOL...
    3 points
  25. PHX did it again and set a new record high yesterday of 89F. Thankfully, that'll be the last of the record heat for this year, at least no more 90's...now comes some real delightful weather with temps in the 80's and 70's all of next week. Prime time late Autumn weather in the valley of the sun. Regarding the storm system for this weekend, it continues to trend S and has a TX Panhandle Hook "look" to it, right?
    3 points
  26. The long range only goes out to at most 15 days. Except the ECMWF weeklies, which goes out 46 days. And it shows blocking and potential cold in mid December. Too early to rely on models. FWIW the CFS shows a lot of blocking all winter. Guessing Eastern WA and Oregon get above average snow. I am actually way above average snow for this time of year.
    3 points
  27. I’ve been using my hand since late March.
    2 points
  28. My GFS Retrogression Extrapolation Easel arrived from Prime just in time!!!
    2 points
  29. Retrograding AK vortex is gonna keep that ridge pumping for awhile.
    2 points
  30. It will. A huge trade wind burst is going right now. The Nino 3.4 SSTs are falling again and are well below -1. -1.227 on the latest update and the fall is accelerating.
    2 points
  31. Hopefully if we do get a period of ridging in late Nov / early Dec it will set up right to give us a nice foggy inversion. I always like seeing one of those during the cold season.
    2 points
  32. Kayla from Bozeman and “The Blob” from Troutdale are two frequent female posters that come to mind.
    2 points
  33. +EAMT/AAM spike coming up late November into the start of December. In this case, we get a temporary +PNA/GOA trough response, kinda reminiscent of a strong niño. Transitions to +EPO/+NPO/-PNA and by the middle of December. In both cases, the vast majority of the country torches (possibly the entire lower-48), and there’s no arctic air in sight yet. Not even modified arctic air.
    2 points
  34. Check out PEET BROS .... Their units are all hard wired... had one for over 15 years before it bit the dust. https://www.peetbros.com/shop/
    2 points
  35. The ECMWF weeklies continue to like the final third of December for a return to cold weather. Decent signal on the mean and a very amplified look on the control.
    2 points
  36. 16-17 spread the wealth about the best of any year in the 2010s.
    2 points
  37. That was a nice day here. 32/23 so pretty cold, but sunny until evening. Started snowing around 10pm and we ended up with nearly 8” total by the time it wound down the next day.
    2 points
  38. Snow was MELTING slowly at this time 17 years ago.
    2 points
  39. Had 1.27" yesterday and are now above normal so far on the month. Excellent!!
    2 points
  40. I would love another Christmas Eve/Day snow. The one we had a couple years ago was magical.
    2 points
  41. I'm not sure your wrong this part of the pattern is warm. But your close to the hot spot this year so it's possible for ya to get some snow out of this.
    2 points
  42. All I'm going to say is we have plenty of extra aces in the deck this winter. A better chance of something good than an average season.
    2 points
  43. I get the feeling we wait until late December or January at the earliest for any snow or legit cold as well.
    2 points
  44. 8C below normal for a monthly average would be one of the coldest Januaries on record. That would mean Arctic air much of the month. Probably at least 8 to 10 highs below freezing. A good percentage of the recent CFS runs have indicated a very cold January. The CANSIPS has looked good for that month as well. The ECMWF looks more impressive for Feb, but still has a chilly look for Jan.
    2 points
  45. Cold air (enough for winter precip- even enough for borderline events so that evap cooling can help at night) -- is a big question. Events will come. Low pressure may even move in prime areas for snowfall IF enough cold air is around. I'am betting that in the next month most of the posters on this forum S of 45N will not see a snow event over 4"- and even so- it will be gone in 2-3 days. If you disagree, I welcome it. Please post as why you think I'am wrong. N of 45- Central / Northern MN, ND, N.WI and the Up are likely in the bullseye - esp the far N of this region IMO. The storms are their.
    2 points
  46. Good windy morning another day another wind advisory. Looking at the models this morning beyond day 7 and they are all over the place. The GFS is warm and dry while the EC has a big snow storm rolling through Missouri and Iowa up through Chicago. I do see some indication some colder air will be around the first week of Dec as I believe there should be. The question to be answered is will the artic air be close enough to tap into.
    2 points
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