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GEFS control shows a strong retrogression signal beginning on Dec 9-10th with all the major players locking in the cold air with Arctic intrusions into the Northwest leading up to Christmas. This is just about the ideal scenario IMO!

My phone cameras not super great but still got the moon and the planets.

If possible, could you add a worried and a laughing emoticon to the menu?

After how 2020 has been, I think we deserve a white Christmas.

Sadly the the garbage has been pretty unreal but on the positive note many good souls cleaning up the messes. We are everywhere and we do care earnestly. As for those who disrespect we can only hope they will mature and become future caretakers. Still frustrating but it is what it is. Amen to millions of acres of remote land where animals can do their thing 44*

The more someone shows it bothers them. We all have our little roles to play on here. I'm the Eeyore who exaggerates shitt & occasionally has moments of hope. But ultimately I just have to come to grips with the fact that this is a shitt location for winter weather and that our summers are going to keep getting hotter and drier. My prose is easily the worst on here too. It takes me like 20 mins to type out a message sometimes because my train of thought has to go back and re-read what I have wrote sometimes tons of times to then move onto my next point. It's one of the reasons why I suck at debating.

Lovely afternoon to stroll the grumpy 2yr old to sleep. Currently 47.

12z EPS...first 1" of the season coming to a MI/IN member near you...

Looks like we made it down to 29F last night. EC shows peak heating being like 47F or so but the GFS shows us right at 50F. Still might pull off a sub-50F high but we are currently at 46F. Beautiful sunshine so far!

Watching for my "inch" on the deck with Sunday's system. We only avg 1.9" for November, so this would be typical.

I am merely remarking that it has been very wet and depressing where I live, so I would also like a change to drier and *gasp*, sunnier weather. Other people are allowed to cheer for weather you don't like.

I am looking forward to the quieter period ahead... less rain and periods of offshore flow. The long Thanksgiving weekend is looking lovely at this point.

Why? Arctic air source is plenty cold by mid December and you'd be optimzing the lowest sun angles and daylight hours in that timeframe. I'll still never understand why people feel the need to want Arctic air intrusions to "wait" for a more historic timeframe. When you live in the PNW you take what you can get and a mid December cold air intrusion is just about ideal IMO.

Yeah, some of the busiest spots have been pretty disgusting, but honestly most spots have been cared for pretty well. I went on more than 40 hikes in the Cascades this summer and only on 3 of them were there so many people that I felt like I couldn't find peace and solitude. Most of them I saw less than a few dozen people and more than 50% I saw less than 10.

A good dose of garbage and disrespect too sadly. The good thing is most people only go to a handful of locations that are well advertised on social media. It's not very hard to still find remote spots if you know where to look. We are very fortunate to have millions of acres of public land in Oregon and Washington.

Awesome! Back in NYC that year, it was a "Very" frustrating Winter. Sleet after sleet/freezing rain and etc. It just did not wanna snow, but the following years rocked. I remember, we got blasted w snowstorms, especially 2009-10 and 2010-11. IIRC, back in December 2010, Meteorologists were cought off guard w a severe blizzard that paralyzed NYC. It was after Christmas Day (Dec 26-27th). They were calling for a few inches and instead, we received 20 to 30 inches of snow ( my area received 29.1" Northern Queens vicinity). I remember I submitted a long disquisition to the TWC and to other weather stations, stated that these mistakes should not be happening. A lot of people got stranded, roads were impassable, supermarkets were all emptied out and etc. Enjoy the pics.... AHHHhhh...the good ol' Nor Easters!!!!!! Now, these are real snowstorms.

good lord the traffic going to Baker this morning was insane and there was a decent number of cars at the Britton Rd “parking area” looks like a lot of people called in sick with a case of the “24 hour snovid” today

TWL, you should consider moving to La Pine instead of Indiana. They can have a couple of feet of snow on the ground rather easily and even see severe thunderstorms in the summer. Unlike Bend, it is still relatively affordable there.

It’s week 2. What do you expect?

I know this is a weather forum, but this triggered a memory. I used to have a Roland Juno 106 analog synth years ago and sold it back then. Just looked them up and they run anywhere from $800-$2000! Didn't pay much for it and sure didn't sell it for much either. Must be popular now.

I for one would love to have the “goods” mid December through the new year. That’s the best possible time in my eyes. Makes the holidays more memorable as well.

Nice to see the Euro staying the course. Via Kuchera, expectations of 8:1 slop are in full effect. 1" of mush is indeed my target for success. Anything above that would be bonus snow and I will consider it as a good omen. Very similar snow swath progression to 07-08 too. I was looping the 5 or 6 storms we got that season this morning.

Nebraska high school football finals are being played in 7 classes today and tonight. Low 50’s right now, perfect weather conditions.

Just perfect. The kind of day that gives good vibes and anticipation of the goodies to come in Dec-Jan. I would advise taking this to PM with Jim or to the socio-political topic. I feel like these arguments tend to deteriorate from this point.

I nominate Jesse to be the first person we blast off to Mars with. Somehow, I still think he'll find a way to downvote from up there.

Low temp 33.1, currently 52.5 with sunny skies. A VERY nice fall day! Both 12z GEFS, CMCE ensembles show a big inversion pattern coming and the Canadian develops a strong cold pool with high temps below freezing for the Columbia Basin. As I said last night, I think we're going to see an inversion/cold pool regime which progresses into retrogression somewhere around the 8th-10th. C'MON!!!! 18z GFS in 56 minutes

Snoqualmie is reporting 3.5 inches this morning. Brings their total to 52 inches this year and 28 inch base.

I like all weather except for warm front drizzle that just goes on and on and on. And split flow since it seems like when it gets established it takes many weeks to break the pattern...And then our winter is half over.

Jesse hates any opinion expressed that he does like. Every season is long on here.

The 12z shows a really classic inversion in the 11 to 15 day period. We begin with a legit cold shot and then a big ridge moves in right overhead with weak offshore gradients. Those are situation where we can get much below normal temps with very high freezing levels. Also sets up potential for a favorable retrogression.

This has been a theme with many of the models. At this point we want to see it hold off for a while longer. With a Nina the longer things hold off the better it is when we get there.

It has cleared out, good thing the kid pooped on my curtains so I could put up the light blocking ones.

Pattern gets more favorable for the NW during the 2nd or 3rd week of December, extrapolating tropical forcing out of IO, thru IPWP. I think I made a more detailed post on this a few weeks ago. Exactly how favorable..I’m not sure. If we can get some ET wave breaking going, then it could be interesting. Worst case, it’s normal-ish temps under zonal flow/AK vortex.

Me, but I'm not Port from Portland lol

Lock downs are no good. I agree Dec should start and finish good with a little lull in the middle. Christmas Day storm??? I have it on my calendar give or take a day.

Thanks Tom, I agree with your thoughts as it lines up well with the LRC. I know not everything always lines up exactly the same, but the part of the pattern we had from Oct 19th through the end of the month was strong and should repeat through the Winter. I wanna respect everyone's opinion but the time between the 4th and 15th I believe should get cold and have some artic air very close at least.

I've been poking around this morning and studying all the data and I'm starting to see a trend among the models that suggests a reversal in the overall pattern across North America as we flip the calendar into met Winter. It's beginning to look like a +PNA pattern is shaping up and that will "fit" to a "T" of what is transpiring in the Strat using the LR forecasting tool I've been accustomed to use. TBH, it's really encouraging to see the GEFS/CFSv2 both start to advertise the west coast ridge popping. The EPS is not that far behind as it usually plays "catch up". I will say, the LR GEFS is looking the best right now at where I believe we are heading. IMHO, some of the models are busting big time with the blocking next month. I do believe with strong affirmation, that there will be blocking across NE Canada which will allow a coast-to-coast parade of storm systems in December. It'll start off slow in the cold dept, but post 5th is when I believe we will see "Winter" begin to set up. Below are a couple 5-day mean 500mb maps off the LR GEFS and if you compare the 30mb Strat animation and look at where the blocking sets up at 500mb. You can't argue where this is going and I'm almost certain the EPS will trend this way as well. The JMA weeklies from yesterday also flashed this pattern to set up by mid Dec. To see various models all beginning to look similar, it bodes confidence that this December will be a lot different than years past. Remember the saying we had back in Sept?? #FlipTheScript

The 00z WRF-GFS Day 7-8 is also showing a cold pool beginning with east winds developing Thanksgiving evening and increasing after that point. C'MON!!!!

The best thing you can do is sluff it off and ignore it. I would honestly like to meet the guy in person because I feel that I agree with him on a lot of things, but he won't just go after one person. His back and forths with the 10k-ers are typically pretty funny.

49/36 here today. Some low clouds early but cleared out by late morning. Crystal clear and down to 39 currently. Should score a frost or freeze tonight, maybe even before midnight at the rate it's dropping.

Beautiful view of Jupiter, Saturn, the Moon, & Mars RN.

Jesse’s just a sensitive, emotional guy is all. He’s good once you get to know him.

Inversion in full force today here in the valley. SLE only 34 at 10am.

I am looking forward to some cooler and sunnier weather too. Said that a couple times this morning.

Total recall came out in 1990. Also the same year as our last top tier arctic blast.

What's a late fall/ early winter without a chilly inversion period. Doesn't seem like we really had one last year. I feel ok about this since we have already gotten some active weather under our belts. And I'm sure it will turn pretty active again later on.

Hopefully you can post in the banter thread. We talk football there. Especially bitcching about the Seahawks.

Independent.

I'm thinking we are moving into a big ridge/inversion/fake cold/ cold pool regime and sometime around December 6th-9th we see retrogression with a major league cold pattern around the 12th. Book it. MBG Money Back Guarantee.

Mild and breezy night while tracking next snow system. This is totally 07-08