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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/25/20 in all areas

  1. Happy Thanksgiving Eve! Looks like ORD picked up 0.7" of snow yesterday and the area received its 1st widespread accumulating snowfall of the season. Is more on the horizon??? Boy, there are some eye candy model runs showing up and some blockbuster snow maps. None moreso than last nights 00z Euro op...like @jaster220 mentioned, the models are flashing some fascinating individual model runs. It's been decades since our region has seen a storm system as being depicted that bombs out and blocks up which spins for days. In recent years, its always been a "tease" and just never worked out or the storm shifted NW. Could we "flip the script" for 2020???? Analyzing the data farther, nearly every global model is honing in on a monster closed upper low centered near the Lower Lakes/OHV region. Big uptick in the snow mean across this region. Things are looking up! Boy, doesn't this 500mb map resemble 2 fiery eyes, a nose and a mouth?? I see you...quiet the way to open up December...
    6 points
  2. Mountain passes look beautiful this morning. My parents are getting some snow showers in the Treasure Valley this Thanksgiving Eve, as well.
    5 points
  3. Storm total precip. here is 1.95”. Right around 0.90” since midnight.
    4 points
  4. December 1990 redux but even more epic! We only had about 16” of snow on the ground with heavy snow falling on Christmas morning. 25” of snow on the ground and blizzard conditions this time around! Book it!
    4 points
  5. Hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving.
    4 points
  6. It's strange how I like the bleak model runs so much. Things change so fast. That means bad model runs can flip the script super fast just like great model runs can. When we are enjoying great model runs I am constantly nervous because a flip means we flip to bad. When model runs are bleak we have the potential to flip to great. Therefore, I'm just fine with bleak model runs because a fast flip brings the goods. I know bleak runs sometimes come to fruition but I still enjoy the constant state of a possible positive flip as opposed to the opposite. Weird stuff I know but that's how my brain works. Ha!
    4 points
  7. It’s nice to finally have a defo band sitting right overhead. If it would be snow it would be ripping!
    4 points
  8. I may need to retract one part from my earlier post. If this were winter and we had enough cold air, we'd be in the midst of a pretty sizeable storm right now, with a potential blockbuster looming on the horizon. #1978stuff!
    4 points
  9. Good news. That Africa/IO standing wave played a role in last winter’s super PV/+EPO torchfest. Getting rid of that would be nice.
    3 points
  10. I have no idea what the hell this means, but it sounds encouraging. Phil? MJVentrice @MJVentrice · 3h The African standing wave is now breaking down as low-frequency tropical forcing slowly shifts eastward with time, moving towards more of a canonical La Nina forcing state.
    3 points
  11. Despite what I was looking at last night, you might be onto something. Jay Albrecht, who would know the about MJO and the PNW than I do, has a couple of tweets today. NWWashingtonWX @wx_washington It looks boring (mild and drier than normal) next couple of weeks. But atmospheric changes in the tropics hint at possibility of colder weather around Christmas per the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble extended solutions. Notice cold and potential for snow in #Everett. NWWashingtonWX @wx_washington · 1h Replying to @wx_washington Cold hinted at about Christmas isn't a sure bet. It will take tropical tstms now in the E Indian Ocean to move into the W Pac and very cold air to form in W Canada. The MJO forecast from the GFS and the ECMWF weeklies hint at such a possibility. #wawx #orwx #bcstorm We'll see.
    3 points
  12. Yeah the CFS is back to cold for January. Definitely a strong north south temp gradient, with northern Washington very cold. Western Oregon is mostly below normal, but there is a pretty strong gradient, and SE Oregon is shown to be normal to slightly above normal...It also shows above normal precip over much of Western Oregon with the highest anomalies in the Cascades. Precip is shown to be below average in N. Washington. Kind of a January 1969 look.
    3 points
  13. 0.70" of rain this morning from the defo band, 1.30" precip total for the event.
    3 points
  14. This storm stalls for days in Oh.....wow!
    3 points
  15. Euro keeping hopes alive for a major snowstorm...so the model mayhem continues for the next several days.
    3 points
  16. Attm, its raining w temps in the 40s. Very raw, dreary, chilly late November day. Luv it!
    3 points
  17. Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow!
    3 points
  18. I was thinking the same thing. It would have been a glorious sight. It's rare the pieces come together just right in this part of the country though. Oh well, I'm enjoying the rain nonetheless.
    3 points
  19. It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere. I've experienced this many times before. I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band. An impressive system to see cycle through in the future.
    3 points
  20. GEM inching west on it's last 3 runs. I like that. 0z Euro is another big run, but not quite as good for the Mitt. I notice both it and the GFS depict the best snowfall SW of the SLP where the coldest air gets wrapped in. Again, this was seen in another early season bomb back in Nov 1950. And, like that epic storm, the best snows are being depicted down in Indiana and/or Ohio.
    3 points
  21. Third week of December. Probably going to be +PNA until the middle of the month.
    2 points
  22. Golly, I wonder how DJ manages to have the most posts on this topic.
    2 points
  23. Definitly time to flip this pattern. NWS KC Thru the first 24 days of this month...Nov 2020 stands as the 10th warmest on the 133-year record for KC. It has been 6.6 degrees above normal. With a cooler stretch to end the month (after Thanksgiving) we will drop on that list.
    2 points
  24. 18z EC with snow still falling over Mich at the end of the run. It's a little weaker than it has been but the track is still good for you guys.
    2 points
  25. Absolutely! The Pacific Northwest has one of the best climates in the world. When it's not raining in the winter, it is comfortable and mostly or partly cloudy, or under a light snowfall with reasonable temperatures in the 20s or low 30s. And when it is raining, a calm mood overspreads the region, a feeling not very mutual with the rest of the country, unfortunately.
    2 points
  26. Up to 50F and pleasant. So much nicer than that regular 90F+ shite and then the firestorm. Yeah I wish we would be seeing more favorable stuff in the models but things are so much nicer RN.
    2 points
  27. I like the way you think! Christmas Eve model riding 00z GFS in 701 hours 12 minutes 00z ECMWF in 704 hours 27 minutes Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! ️🌬️🌬
    2 points
  28. Up to 9.36" of rain on the month. Hoping we can at least hit the 10" mark.
    2 points
  29. This system look familiar to me. I expect this to trend colder aswell.
    2 points
  30. 2 points
  31. When on earth will I ever see a map like that for mby??? Jealous!
    2 points
  32. I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern. Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air. Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later. I'm liking the trends at this range. Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off.
    2 points
  33. Hang on 3 or 4 more days and let the models process the blocking and pattern change that's on deck. This always gives them fits, keep an eye out for energy to dive in to the western US around the 8th or so.
    2 points
  34. As someone posted earlier, radar shows "heavy" precip right over Cedar Rapids, but it's just a solid light to moderate rain. Still, some models had trended toward keeping the defo zone mostly south of CR, so it's nice to see it lift far enough north to easily boost us over an inch of precip for the entire event. A month later, CR might be getting several inches of snow from this.
    2 points
  35. Hopefully we can get a good windstorm to knock down all these D**n trees!
    2 points
  36. GEM has indeed pulled westward just enough to what I consider the ideal position for the Mitt. It also keeps the SLP trekking north like the earlier Euro runs. Much prefer that over it stalling out overhead and spinning on top of me. It is pretty stingy with the main snow swath and I'm wondering if that's a blip or indication of a lack of good snow growth.
    2 points
  37. Showers here with a low of 39. 42 currently. Looks like the passes are getting shellacked this morning.
    2 points
  38. Explosive bomb! Somebody will get slammed really hard by this one.
    2 points
  39. Per NOAA: Potential for a potent winter system early next week when a northern stream wave diving out of the Gulf of Alaska phases with a southern stream wave drifting out of the Four Corners region. Latest Euro comes into better agreement with the GFS with phasing more over the Appalachians. Forecast offers a significant amount of QPF over the region while wrapping around plenty of cold air. It will be something to keep an eye on with still plenty of time to hash out details.
    2 points
  40. Here at my house I had .8" of snow fall. There was a total of 0.47" in the rain gauge. Late yesterday afternoon there was a period of very large snow fakes. It was after that snow fall that I took the measurement. This morning of course the snow is all but gone (there is still snow in spots) and the temperature is now up to 41 here.
    2 points
  41. I can't remember what year it was, but there was a Christmas Eve storm that dumped some very high ratio snows (20:1+) ratio snow that was timed perfectly. The NW burbs got hammered with 10" of snow and I think ORD received around 6" or so. Let's hope for some kind of repeat this year!
    2 points
  42. I’m around 1” of rain so far. A heavier band stayed just a few miles south of me though.
    2 points
  43. Getting ready to get bumpy out... Line of storms about to roll through.
    2 points
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