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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/03/21 in Posts

  1. -14 850mb temps to Seattle at hour 138 . . .
    9 points
  2. Can you imagine if this gets even better? This is fine if the improvement stops right here though.
    8 points
  3. One year ago today Seattle had these "snow shafts" that were only a few blocks across. I remember the radar that day was really interesting with the tiniest heavy showers I've ever seen quickly dropping temps from the low 40's to near freezing.
    8 points
  4. As normal as the morning mist off of Silver Falls. Welcome to the forum!
    7 points
  5. OPER does not appear to be a big outlier...
    7 points
  6. Another 4" for E Iowa Monday. Wow. Different pattern and setup, but reminiscent of Dec 2000 when we were hit with one clipper right after the other. Storm Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. All capable of several inches for many areas. Saturday's looking the weakest.
    7 points
  7. 7 points
  8. Looking forward to this...If the cold and snow doesn’t materialize next week.
    6 points
  9. The freezing drizzle is pretty intense right now. Just got off work and the van I drove for work was caked in ice. Roads were also sketchy. Only good thing about this is that it'll put a crust on the snow that we have right now, which will limit blowing impacts.
    6 points
  10. One interesting thing on the 12z EPS is a fair number of members showed a long cold wave. that just might be possible now. February is the bomb lately.
    6 points
  11. Probably shouldn't even post this on actual storm thread lmao
    6 points
  12. Wow! I just saw the 12z GFS, GEM, ECMWF.... Talk about a drastic change and before Day 5 even. This is down the 'home stretch' so to speak. This could be what I mentioned last night that IF models were to swing in our favor it would happen quickly. Do I for the first time this Winter bring out the infamous "Colder Runs Ahead!" (c)2017? Yakima ensembles shows a real nice signal for backdoor arctic air.
    6 points
  13. This model shift to colder solutions in the short term is unreal. We could be looking at something really legit if this trend keeps up. Honestly, forget about what the models show in the long range. This winter has zero long range predictability. At this point, I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that most if not all the models have shifted the cold significantly further west in the short term. Phil, any insight?
    6 points
  14. She will turn 4 months next Monday, she is a Great Pyrenees/Anatolian Shepherd mix. Already over 45lbs!
    6 points
  15. She loves the snow. I heard her going in and out all night once it started. Just like me.
    6 points
  16. Woke up around 2am with about 1" on the ground and heavy snow falling. Had 3" by 4a, ended up with 3.5".
    6 points
  17. Wow the 0z Euro is non stop snow over the next 7-8 days. The storm showing up next Monday could go bigly!
    6 points
  18. As a winter weather enthusiast, I can't help but marvel at the idea that this month could very well deliver a tremendous amount of snow and sustained cold for the heart of this Sub Forum. It is not fantasy anymore, the robust pattern flip which we have all been waiting for (I know some on here don't care...) is underway. The story of how the Winter of '20-21 will be written may not just be remembered by the warmth that inundated the majority of met Winter but in my opinion, it will be remembered by one of the most incredible back-loaded periods in history for some locals (not all). Locally speaking, I posted an interesting stat a few weeks ago where Chicago ended up with 3 out of 3 winters that started off very slow in the snow dept through early January, that eventually, the city ended up above avg by seasons end. I gotta say, it sure is looking like we are on the way towards an AN snow season. A number of places across the MW are doing extremely well in the snow dept and nature is showing us a pattern. Check out the current U.S. snow depth and it likely tells the story of what lies ahead. Feb 1st GL's snow depth... IMHO, the big missing link for those of us who have missed out in the snows in recent years has been the lack of any blocking up near Greenland. This season, however, it has brought forth a massive change to the storm track and has benefited those farther south across our Sub instead of recent years of having to deal with cutters that tracked NW of here and delivered, literally, historic snows in a handful of those years. Is nature balancing things out this year??? What lies ahead for this month may be some thing written in the history books in terms of duration of sustained cold and storms. The pattern setting up for the central CONUS could very well mirror what happened in Boston during FEB '15 (prob not to that extreme). Interestingly, while I was flipping through the models, I couldn't help but "see" something whereby the models could be providing us a clue. The last run off of the TTB site, the CFSv2 was showing this temp forecast for Feb....this run was on Jan 28th so about 6 days ago when it stopped updating. Coincidentally, or not, the temp profile looks rather similar to the snow depth map I posted above! Wouldn't you agree the model may be sniffing out where the storm track will be setting up??? The jet is going to remain very active this month and there are multiple hits, I mean, it is concievable we will be tracking waves/storms every 2-3 days this month. I foresee a spectacular winter pattern setting up for our Sub. I'm tickled with excitement as this pattern that is forthcoming has tremendous possibility for a historic finish to met Winter. TBH, full disclosure, I'm delaying my trip to Arizona bc I feel that I have a personal responsibility to stay here this month and track winter storms! I sure as heck don't wanna miss out on this opportunity! If the 00z GEFS are correct, the saying, "The Midwest is Best" comes to mind...whats even more eye popping, quite sadly actually, is the lack of snow in the Dakotas and the prairies of SW Canada. This snow mean map is quintessentially what I think mother nature has been showing us already. It is fascinating to see how the model world lines up with the pattern that has set up. For example, it is the exact opposite of what happened during the historic Feb '19 season where the heaviest snows fell NW of here. Over the next 2 weeks, the models are suggesting a hyper active wave train coupled with long duration cold across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation. As a snow lover, you can't ask for a better outcome...to have it snow, on top of snow, has been very rare around these parts....until now. I'm anticipating a couple more storms for later next week (9th-10th and around Valentine's Day). I'm diggin' what the GEFS are sippin'....
    6 points
  19. Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs?
    5 points
  20. It’s like these computer models are all suddenly being run on a 1984 Commodore 64 with a cassette deck drive...And someone accidentally put in a “Talking Heads” cassette instead of a data cassette...
    5 points
  21. I hope what the models are showing is not a mirage!
    5 points
  22. What in the actual **** is this GFS run lol.
    5 points
  23. It's incredible that GFS was actually predicting this last week. Cold air arriving around the 6th-7th.
    5 points
  24. Won’t be long until we are in NAM territory!! More models to ride!!!
    5 points
  25. too many waves--- if you miss out on this winter pulse, you've had it before- or don't remember. This is borderline epic in progs. Still needs to happen, but my goodness- the potential is unreal and its multiple runs of many models. SIT BACK and ENJOY-- That's all I got. Midnight tonight I will be all over this. CRash....
    5 points
  26. 18z looks like it spits out a high of 31 for Seattle both Monday and Tuesday.
    5 points
  27. Crazy shift for 5 days out. Cold shifts a good 1,500 miles further West the last two runs.
    5 points
  28. Pretty impressive positive trends the last 24 hours on the GFS. Ridge building better into Alaska, cold digging further SW into Washington.
    5 points
  29. There are some seriously cold ensemble members on the EPS. One shows SEA dropping to 5 on the 13th with a number dropping into the teens.
    5 points
  30. And two years ago today, Snowmegadon was just getting started here. Ended up getting 25 inches of snow here and will remember February 2019 for the rest of my life. Facebook will be reminding me for the next two weeks just how deep the snow got here.
    5 points
  31. One year ago today it was chilly too...
    5 points
  32. -10 850mb temps to Seattle and -9 to PDX at hour 144 on the Euro.
    5 points
  33. To hard to break down the storms so here if the GFS Mean for the next 7 days. Ensemble 26 is not a team player lol.
    5 points
  34. The 12z at around day 5 is a huge step in the right direction. Pointless what is shown beyond that right now.
    5 points
  35. DMX blizzard warnings N and NE.Bring it!!!
    5 points
  36. It's been a very warm Winter so makes sense they'd be blooming ahead of schedule. No predictive value there though.
    5 points
  37. Here just west of Ottumwa we had a slow start and missed out on the earlier snows that Desmoines and Ames got. But since Dec 28th its been crazy! 29.5 right now 2019-2020 42.0 2018 -2019 72.4 Oct and Nov 2018 were incredible and set the tone for what I think was a record season here. Cuad Cities area crept past me at end of that season. I dont accept the official Ottumwa numbers as I have seen them to be in error.. Im consistently higher. I think they are daily numbers measure each morning. Not every 6 hour intervals.
    5 points
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