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Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland an

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Looking at the WSDOT cams around the Sound and all I see are bare and wet roads. Obvious that this isnt going to happen and that the season we love the most, Not Winter, is just around the corner. Death captures us all and entropy will win so your fleeting dance with snow will not matter. All ice will melt when the brightness of the sun starts to boil away the upper atmosphere in 400 million years. How are everyones flowerbeds doing?

Morning hike.

This run is so good Tim is in lurk mode struggling to find a bad map

Did anyone see the ECMWF Parallel? Toasty

Got into my graduate program. Let's go!!!

If you want a big snow you're gonna have to play with some undercutting. I'd rather this than just dry and cold. That's boring.

Looking at the massive NAO block 'pressing' down on the PV lobe, southeast US ridge, and digging contours in BC, Day 5-6 might be the most prolific arctic blast in 50+ years.

Here we go boys. Starting Monday night

If that cold trough around day 6 were to dig out over the ocean a tiny bit more we could see a snowstorm and even colder temps than this run shows. We would have snow cover and even colder 850s. At any rate what a great run.

WOW. The cold air advection is very strong reminiscent of the real deal big blasts of the past.

Arctic front snow through Thursday morning...

Only this forum could put a negative spin on tonight's models. Totally unreal. Keep in mind a blend, which is most likely, would be fantastic.

Thanks y'all, I'm perfectly okay... all my vitals are good and nothing weird was found in my brain. Just a little shaken up and tired, that's all. Definitely the scariest day of my life and closest brush with something serious I've ever had. Also I'm absolutely elated with the sudden shift on the models. Obviously exact snowfall positioning/potential over-undercutting won't be resolved 100+ hours out, but there are some seriously good solutions showing up.

I'd prefer things don't get undercut so quickly. Let the cold marinate.

Really coming down. 1/2 visibility and the streets are already covered.

RAP showing signs of moving N big time (especially 2nd wave)-- and very high qpf in IA.

Poured an adult beverage. Whether the entire bottle gets consumed depends on tonight’s runs.

My weeds are really starting to pop...Let’s bury these suckers under a foot or three of snow!!

18z EPS is colder for every critical time period than the 12z.

Bought several of these from a retired met. Let me know if you're interested. I can work out doable low interest financing with you as well. For a little more I can get you a two-seater for your significant other so she knows for sure what you're doing at midnight, 1am, 2am, 3am, 4am and all through the day. Reassure her that your mortgage will be paid each month. There is a new model coming out that will include your own secret connection directly to the NWS and top of the line North Korea weather services.

It was above freezing and snowless today. Has anyone looked at the CFS for May? Snow and cold has killed millions and anyone cheering for it is a bad person. Your life is but a blink of the eye in the cosmic scheme of things and in the end the EPS will paint the earth blood red as the all surface life burns off as destined by our main sequence star. Snow love is dumb and futile. Has anyone started planting spring flowers yet?

I need all of you to repeat after me: "I solemnly vow to keep the news of the goodies that have been thrust before us on this day to just myself and other members of this forum, if I break this vow I shall be banished to Tim's basement to feed coal in to his weather machine for the remainder of my days" Amen

All I know is, Randy better NOT go back up into that ******* attic of his and drag that D**n kiddie pool down again.

Had to drive into the office... What did I miss? 18z any good?

On Dec 8, 2013 PDX hit 12. It warmed up a bit but Feb 7, '14 it got cold again and snowed. Had about 6". That's been my last good cold and snow together.

That 12z ECMWF run was top tier for cold advection out there. Amazing how fragile this progression is..just the tiniest of changes to TPV structure in AK/Yukon 48hrs out could make the difference between a full fledged arctic assault and a complete miss. The inflection point appears to be D2, sometime on Sunday. If we hold on until 00z runs Sunday, should be good, as volatility likely decreases substantially at that point.

Any Moisture details will have to wait to the 24-36hr window.

DRAMATIC improvement with EPS!

I'm exhausteddd I need a nap before 00z.

With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential. Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again.

Yes you are. You have all your family and they look healthy.

Pic doesn’t do it justice. Off and on heavy squalls. Banding setting up right over my neighborhood, then fluctuating 5 miles north/south. Really adding up. 18.4 degrees. Haven’t measured. But our stone wall that’s about 3ft high is drifted over. I think we hit 12” by Sunday. Probably 8-10” depth.

OAX forecasting 3-5" tonight and another 2-3" tomorrow night on top of 5" OTG. I want to try to wake up early tomorrow because last year I would've killed for a 3-5" event in Feb lol but we'll see.

I know the moment that I hop onboard with this, it will be cold rain and a slow march into spring. So I wont. Winter is still canceled.

18z EPS looks even weaker with the AK energy - phases even better with our trough. Something tells me we will like the 00z Euro run tonight.

Sorry I’ve been holding back Aeroflot flight data from being incorporated into your Американское Модель. Your 00z run will have some surprises I’m afraid

90 HRs of 18Z EUro-

I think it's time for me to strap on my athletic cup, things are going way too good.

And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday

18z GFS thru Tues.

Remember that guy from Tucson who showed up around February 2019. He was like a good luck charm. Bet he's seen more snow than PDX this winter.

Uh oh... Where's Kayla?

So much going on hard to keep up. EPS better with snow also

Here's a possible scenario. Ready? Arctic trough digs even further west, we end up with short-over-water trajectory AND that pulls the PV lobe even closer towards Northern Idaho. We end up with a snow storm Day 5 to 5.5. Incredible arctic blast.

Not that it bears ANY meaning but the last time I saw a "face" in the upper air run/s we ended up with over 13" Similar to Feb '19, Dec '12, late Nov '08 and also Dec 1996

Yeah, not to be a downer, but we're talking about day 6+ here in a very tenuous pattern where the models have been all over the place just 4-5 days out.

For those who haven't seen the GEM you should look. After a week of cold weather the run ends with a big fat 150 ridge potentially ready to deliver more cold. In the bigger picture this has a chance to be an epic nearly nationwide cold wave that harks back to the good old days.

Wow. 6z NAM is fantastic! PLEASE be onto something!