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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/11/21 in all areas

  1. 6 points
  2. Just had a nice burst of heavy snow come through. I have 1.4” of fresh LES powder. I could look out the window all night long it looks fantastic outside right now. Gosh, the kid in me always comes out when it snows!
    6 points
  3. My bad, the 12Z GFSv16 has 24 inches in KC by next weekend. Disregard all of my complaining. KC is a lock for getting burried! I simply forgot to look at that model.
    6 points
  4. Man ole man have the models been wrong for KC. Starting last Saturday, they had 1-3 inches for KC, we received around an 1 inch. They showed from Sunday to Friday a wide range of 4-13 inches. Multiple chances of snow throughout the week. I ended up on the NE side of KC with 2.5 inches. It has not snowed since Monday(very light snow at that time) Now, the once promising Friday storm into Saturday is fading for KC. The two big storms late in the weekend through next week look very questionable as far as KC getting anything from them as the trend is south on most models. Maybe that's a good thing, showing us getting missed as it showed us getting hit all week but we missed all of the chances. I sure would hate to look back on this beautiful cold pattern and say we only scored 2.5 inches of snow. I have never witnessed 15-20 days of well below freezing weather resulting in everything that comes through would be guaranteed snow. As you know, we usually have the rain/snow line problem each storm down here. So, darn it, come on, let's gets some hits here in KC. I know the EURO has the storm hitting KC late in the weekend into early next week, but, I think that is the only player right now.
    6 points
  5. -30 last night on the weather station guessing the official will be a few degrees colder as has been the case through this whole thing. Balmy -27.9 currently. Its a dry cold though so doesn't feel as cold
    6 points
  6. Historic cold in KC. I stole this from Lezaks blog this morning.
    6 points
  7. In the following graphic you can see the extreme cold in N.MN. If you look to the NW you will see Baudette,MN (KBDE). The missing dewpoint is not an error. It's because it's an ASOS site (likely more accurate than an AWOS site) and dewpoints at ASOS sites -40 and greater are NILL. That's because the technology in the sensor in obtaining a wet bulb (and hence dewpoint) past -40F is nearly impossible when one understands the actual physics going on. Ever whip a sling psychromter around dampened at the end to obtain the true wet bulb at -10F? It's basically impossible. Even modern technology struggles at this and a reason to question temps/dew points at or below -40F. This is a reason why many low temps (though I mildly disagree) get thrown out when coming from AWOS sites--- and why human mercury/alchol therms are the best in extreme temps. Automation - while great- loses info at the extremes. Put a human observer ( properly trained ) at KBDE and the dewpoint would likely be -42 to -44F. Just an FYI. How do you think they got DEw points like they did before automation - it was manual. Wet wick whipped on the bottom of thermometer. I'am old school- I get it, but these old school techniques and even thought are getting lost in automation which hasn't a clue when it thinks it does.
    6 points
  8. Let's have a vote...who agrees that we should start a President's Day storm thread?? Instead of it being started by one of us up north, I feel whole hardheartedly that @OKwx2k4should do the honors...He is WAY overdue and this one has eyes on you my friend! Meantime, my goodness, tonight's 00z Euro run is a thing of beauty for the heartland of the nation...#snowmaggedon #FebBlitz2021 1st cutter.... 2nd Cutter...
    6 points
  9. That's literally a week strung out of snow upon snow. Maybe a 36 hour break. I'm standing on a foot through 6 days, easily. Closer to two feet in western Oklahoma. This will be a historic February before it's over, and at the very least, an introduction to real winter like the "old days". There are folks who think a bad winter here is any in the last 9 years. They were wrong. Lol.
    5 points
  10. 12z GFS for Presidents Day storm has come further north. Brings warning level snows up to the MO. river and KC.
    5 points
  11. Does today's wave count for this thread? Measured 1.6" before I shoveled the driveway. Right when I got done it started snowing again.
    5 points
  12. Most arctic air cold spells here in northern minnesota end with the coldest temps in the calm of the high pressure center the morning before it moves south and east. The result is a return flow from the south over the next 36-48 hours that can warm temps 30-40-50 degrees in some cases. The classic example is Feb 1996 when Tower MN set the state record low of -60. Within a few days it was in the +40s for a temperature difference around 100 degrees.
    5 points
  13. Hey @OKwx2k4 after all of the missed snows in recent years looks like Mother Nature could pay you back all at once. Yikes! lol
    5 points
  14. It appears likely that this year will be yet another year that will feature #delayedspring. The CFSv2 is trending the same way it started off for the month of Feb and we are seeing what this month is delivering. If you look at the trends for next month, the model is sniffing out the holy grail that supports a pattern conducive for late season winter storms. The all-important blocking up near Greenland. It's not the only model, in fact, the JMA seasonal that came out yesterday and it is showing the same thing. Late in the season, the NAO plays a big role, none more so than during the months of FEB-APR. With that being said, here are some maps... CFSv2... Trends so far are starting to see the blocking up across eastern Canada and Greenland...an extremely wet pattern is shaping up....Bowling Ball season???? Snow enthusiasts....stay thirsty my friends! Snow records will fall by the time this season ends for some of you on here who have had a tremendous start to this season. JMA... Temp/Precip...pretty similar signal as the CFSv2...
    5 points
  15. Just because I'll never see a model like this again. Hahaha.
    4 points
  16. 4 points
  17. Par for the course. They absolutely blew the forecast on the blizzard and didn't make anything of the 2-5" that fell on Monday. I feel like models have done a much better job in the near term (within 48 hours) of not over blowing accumulations. It used to be standard that you took a model output and subtracted 25-50% from it, but this season models have done really well with total qpf and snow totals. I think the NWS is still subtracting totals off the top of model output, which may be why they have been underselling storms.
    4 points
  18. Looks like me, @Clinton and the KC folks are going to have to call in an Exorcist or sacrifice chickens in the backyard or something to get rid of this bad mojo. These maps are getting ridiculous.
    4 points
  19. I'm pulling for you KC folks, it's definitely an I-80 train this year. In winters like 2013-14, you have everyone getting in on the action while Nebraskans are bored in the background. Feast of famine, it sucks, but it be like that sometimes. I'm sure I'll be miserable next winter begging for a 2-4" event haha.
    4 points
  20. If we don't get hit in the next 10 days I'll pack it in also. But noway we have artic air last this long and not get at least 1. I would stay with it until this artic outbreak is over.
    4 points
  21. ORD tacked on another 0.5" of snow yesterday and with the additional 0.1" that was record on the morning of the 9th, ORD is officially up to an "even steven" 33.0" for the season. We are now only a few inches away from normal which we will likely hit, or surpass, by the end of this weekend. This has been one hellova turnaround for Chitown. #Chiberia
    4 points
  22. He's either burying his head in the pillow or into the snow mounds that are growing in his back yard...LOL
    4 points
  23. Excited for you peeps down S!!! That's going to really test the infrastructure - Probably shut down most of TX I would imagine for several days.
    3 points
  24. The models that had Cedar Rapids on the southern edge of the good snow today were spot on. I finished with 1.3".
    3 points
  25. A nice fluffy 1/2" of snow has been dropped so far by the aforementioned weenie band that is moving through the Omaha metro, we might be able to scrape out an inch or so if this band can keep up a bit longer.
    3 points
  26. Another weenie band tonight popping up in similar location in NE- not showing in either HRRR or RAP. fwiw- I don't think they can handle this amount of cold and ratios / moisture in the atmosphere Hopefully this bodes well for event this weekend. *** edit *** actually a blip just showed up on the RAP but it's gone by 10pm. I doubt that happens.
    3 points
  27. Man are you looking good for this one. 18z Euro Control at 10:1, ratios of course will be higher :
    3 points
  28. You may have missed my post earlier today where I suggested you should do the honors and fire up a storm thread...we’re all waiting for ya
    3 points
  29. There are some embedded very heavy returns in DuPage...
    3 points
  30. Euro Friday night into Saturday. Subtract about an inch for today's snow from this.
    3 points
  31. What a winter. might as well get the entire lower 48 in on the action.
    3 points
  32. GFS loses this beautiful cold pattern one week from Saturday. It is showing 70's in the Plains by Feb. 25th. WOW! I believe that as this has been a very warm pattern(outside of this 2 week cold snap) and it will return. We must score here in the next 10 days! Come on baby!! I think winter will be over after this record breaking cold snap. KC is going for the record of consecutive days below 20 degrees for highs. 13 is the record, today will be #6 and the forecast has 8-9 more days below 20 degrees.
    3 points
  33. Award for worst model this winter
    3 points
  34. Below zero here this morning (-1F). With the sun reflecting off the fresh snow and lack of leafs on the trees, it's brighter than a mid-June morning out there.
    3 points
  35. 06z NAM...still looking aggressive for the Lower Lakes region...
    3 points
  36. Yesterday's snowfall marked the 6th day so far this month that had measurable snowfall. We will likely add a few more days in a row over the weekend. I remember Chicago broke a record streak for measurable snowfall during the Feb '18 snow blitz. We could come close to setting or achieving that record by next week. If it were not for missing a day on Feb 7th which had no measurable snowfall, we would have tied or set a new record by this weekend. However, if things align just right, we could tie that streak by the middle of next week. Let's see if we can make history. Not to mention, but Chicago is currently at the #5 spot for consecutive days with a 11" or more snow depth! I'm surprised that the historic '13-'14 season was not on the list.
    3 points
  37. agree- OKwx2k4 needs to start the thread!!!!! (that or the troll that suddenly "disappeared"...)
    3 points
  38. Just puking snow; so amazing how so little moisture can make these flakes so fat. My driveway was bare ground. I think this weekend has some curveballs to throw our way! IMG_1077.MOV
    3 points
  39. GFS joins the Euro with temps back above freezing by Friday of next week now
    2 points
  40. GFS with another solid 8-12" run through Monday. Crazy... Don't really know which storm to consider it a part of at this point.
    2 points
  41. LES is really kicking in here and snowing at a decent clip. Nice fatties falling.
    2 points
  42. 12z Euro through 84 hours. I'd be more than happy with this amount.
    2 points
  43. Both of next weeks storms combined. What would Oklahoma do with that?
    2 points
  44. 06z GFS v16 through 102 hours. This model has had many issues with loading and missing data over the last week.
    2 points
  45. After a "mild" morning, KLNK is at -1 before midnight. It's going be a long streak of consecutive sub zero lows. Not sure what the record is.
    2 points
  46. It is interesting to note the continued pushback of the brutal cold. At one point it looked like this Thursday thru Saturday nights would be the worst. Then it pushed back to Saturday/Sunday. Now it's the beginning of next week. I wouldn't mind avoiding sub -20 temperatures
    2 points
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