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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/08/21 in all areas

  1. The pup is now 9 months old. It is actually still pretty green up here despite the severe drought. 5 of the young ducks are now big enough to join the flock. We had a lot of successful breeding this spring, we sold most of the hatchlings last year, but this year we kept most and increased the flock to about 30.
    6 points
  2. I love how people are accusing me of seeing what I want. The same people that said more epic warmth and a record warm summer were a lock a week ago. This is when the GFS was showing SEA would have no days below 80 for the entire period of the run. How did that work out? The point is we really don't know what the rest of the summer will bring. All I've been saying is where we have been means nothing going forward. It's just like cold in the early part of the winter doesn't mean the whole winter is going to be cold. With the atmosphere becoming decidedly Ninaish in the tropics there is no reason to expect we will have another big heat wave. It could happen, but it very well may not. One thing I do have a feeling about is we will probably see cold hit pretty early in the cold season. Second year Ninas are much more likely to bring cold early than first year ones.
    6 points
  3. Today will be one minute and twenty one seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
    6 points
  4. Or the system response to GHG increase (or any given forcing, for that matter) may be nonlinear/state dependent. Hard, if not impossible, to argue humans haven’t contributed to the post-LIA warming. Though obviously we’re the not the sole cause of it, given it started before the industrial revolution, while GHG emissions weren’t significant enough to affect climate (to a statistically significant degree) until WWII.
    3 points
  5. I’ll be chasing tomorrow in Iowa. Hope to see something cool!
    3 points
  6. Low clouds cleared to reveal some scenic mid level clouds overhead... which I also saw in Randy's picture earlier.
    3 points
  7. Not to beat a dead horse into the ground... but there's been a fair bit of discussion on here about whether the record-shattering June heat wave can be attributed to climate change. I find the following discussion on Real Climate to be more coherent and detailed than anything I've seen from Cliff Mass. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/07/rapid-attribution-of-pnw-heatwave/ They explain how attribution studies work, which atmospheric models are used, and what can go wrong with the process. I personally find it more convincing than Cliff saying he did a study one time (without providing any reference or details) which proves the extreme heat isn't attributable to climate change, or Cliff posting some arbitrary time series and making a statement based on eye-balling the graph.
    3 points
  8. Marine clouds burning off and a very pleasant day so far. Should get into the low 80s and then the 90s come back starting tomorrow.
    3 points
  9. or something like eagle creek, if that kid were alone, and no one knew he had fireworks and he started it, and it got out of hand. probably 13 years ago some friends and i were on sauvie island around mid july and we were firing a ton of mortars around, at each other, you know typical young dude stuff... and one kid in our party shot one into the cottonwoods along the shore and promptly started the underbrush on fire. I thought we would all go to prison for burning down the island, but in a twist of fate, or something, the friends' house we were at, his dad happened to be a firefighter and had a water truck at his house. I learned to run a water truck that day, and we never got in trouble. I guess it negligence much less obvious than that can be pretty common. It is crazy how fast fires can start!
    3 points
  10. The trend has been favorable for my area Friday. Most models show some decent rain/storm action throughout the day, adding up to an inch for many where the best band sets up. The weekend is still up in the air. Models are forecasting a low to cut off, but there is disagreement with placement. The NAM and Euro track the low south and east of Iowa, leaving us dry. Other models cut the low off over southeast Iowa, dumping big rain over my area.
    3 points
  11. Some marine layer drizzle out there this morning. Very nice.
    3 points
  12. The summer version of the Hudson Bay Block appears to be strong enough to push the main show south. The 0z Euro is now agreeing with what the GFS/GEFS have been showing for the last couple days. 0z EPS gives some hope for those in IA and N IL...
    3 points
  13. I heard some loopy hyperbole in June about deep, cold troughs coming by the end of the month... and a 1954-like July incoming.
    3 points
  14. A nice little cell earlier this evening was right on my doorstep, but sadly just passed under 1 mile south again. Could hear the downpour where up to 1” fell two miles south with only a trace here, though had .03” from a previous shower. There was a little thunder at times. For some reason this site doesn’t let me upload any panoramic photos anymore.
    3 points
  15. I’m already seeing visions of massive ensemble improvement dancing in my head.
    2 points
  16. That has to be an all-time record. I looked up some of your historically hot months and there is nothing even close that I have been able to find.
    2 points
  17. Little did I know that the downpour on the afternoon of June 15th here that I said was ushering in the start of true summer pattern would mean the end of all rainfall. Seems very likely it will be easily a month and probably more without any meaningful rainfall here... could be reminiscent of 2017 when it stopped raining on June 18th and did not really rain again until September 18th. Time will tell... but there is not really any rain in sight right now and it normally rains in my area at times in the summer. I have mentioned before that the first half of the 20th century also featured many very long dry spells in the summer in this area.
    2 points
  18. Translation: the models suck. I tend to agree with you, but your point is not what Cliff argued. In fact, he argued that the models unambiguously prove that the synoptic pattern was *not* made more likely by climate change.
    2 points
  19. It’s like a window to our current societal state.
    2 points
  20. Sounds D**n near rational, Jim! Nicely done!
    2 points
  21. It's official, a La Nina watch has been issued by the CPC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
    2 points
  22. Enhanced risk added for tomorrow, slight risk area also expanded.
    2 points
  23. Then speaks about troughs a week or more in advance as if they’ve already verified. He sees what he wants to see and ignores anything that doesn’t fit…and when it doesn’t go his way he just disappears.
    2 points
  24. The Jim Effect is starting to show itself in next weekend’s troughing.
    2 points
  25. Wish I’d waited a few weeks to the pull the trigger on our trip. Seems increasingly likely a mammoth eastern death ridge develops late this month or the first part of August. Ffs. Could’ve avoided a good chunk of it had I not jumped the gun.
    2 points
  26. Nice day in Skykomish! There is a fair amount of tree damage right along HWY 2 between Monroe and Skykomish like the asphalt amplified the heat and cooked them, trees away from the Highway don’t look too bad.
    2 points
  27. Pretty nice they issued a La Nina watch. The chances of a Nino this winter are pretty much zero now. My bets are on this cold season being an early starter. Already a pretty major cold air mass progged to hit NW Canada next week.
    2 points
  28. Yup. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
    2 points
  29. Completely unrelated but... I just saw that a La Nina watch was issued then saw this map. I'm so excited for never ending model riding this fall and Winter. We're so close!
    2 points
  30. Like tim said…just 2 years ago in 2019 there was a lot more marine layer days atleast up here in western WA. It’s been nice to see…but it’s not exactly exceptional. Probably just seems that way since there’s been much less marine layer days overall the last 8 or so years.
    2 points
  31. You can tell the marine layer is really deep this morning when looking at the way it has filled the mountain valleys. It feels delightful out there this morning! This is the most impressive morning low cloud regime we've seen in years.
    2 points
  32. It seems like the visible damage on our trees is fading. I think it is actually being shaken off over time with the wind. We had a windy period yesterday morning and I was watching brown needles blowing off the hemlock trees. The burnt leaves on deciduous trees are also falling off.
    2 points
  33. It's going to be a beautiful day with temps in the low 80's. The heavy rainfall totals look to be to my north this weekend, an inch of rain would be just about right.
    2 points
  34. The JMA weeklies suggesting this pattern that is setting up over the next week or so to continue through July. I think there is some heat dialing up for the Upper MW and parts of the Plains later next week but most of our Sub, seasonal to BN temps seem to be the main theme and the active pattern shall continue. Monsoon in the SW seems to be on the uptick on the back half of the month. Week 2... Temp/Precip... Week 3-4... Temp/Precip... The SST's in the NE PAC are on Fuego....it's interesting to see a lot of the ocean showing pockets of BN temps, esp across the areas in the N PAC/Aleutians, coastal Cali/Baja and of course the equatorial PAC.
    2 points
  35. Speak of which, I'll be getting a taste of that today as temps are only supposed to peak around 70F with a stiff NE wind off the lake. I took a look up north in the arrowhead of MN and temps are bottoming out in the mid 30's! Crazy for early July. Frost in July??? I'd say that is pretty rare but maybe someone else can comment on that.
    2 points
  36. The first 1/2 of July is going to end up pretty warm. That mid month trough is still a good week away on the models.
    2 points
  37. Now that’s a beautiful trough. And I’ll be in GA..also under blue.
    2 points
  38. We’re really ramping it up with the amount of daylight loss per day now.
    2 points
  39. ENSO SSTs have already been falling for a few days in response to this. Looking good.
    1 point
  40. Looks like this area might have a shot at the upper 40s tonight. That would feel downright invigorating right now.
    1 point
  41. Nice improvement on the 18z GEFS. Notably stronger with the westside marine influence.
    1 point
  42. Up to 80F and beautiful all day.
    1 point
  43. If anthropogenic climate change is caused by greenhouse gases, then you’d expect to see the climate gradually change over the last half century as greenhouse gases slowly rise. However, if you look at the frequency of big cold events in the PNW, it isn’t a gradual change - around 1998, it’s like a switch was flipped, and a sudden nosedive occurred. The simplest explanation and the one I believe in (not that it’s definitively correct) is that it was a natural shift in the Pacific Hadley Cell regime. Tying a singular event down to anthropogenic climate change is much harder. What caused the atmosphere to set up in the incredible way it did? Would this be possible with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentration? Would it be possible during the circulation regime a century ago? Those questions are extremely hard if not impossible to answer, at least from my perspective.
    1 point
  44. Not too hard to imagine a situation where the week 2 trough skims by to the north or digs offshore. Especially as we head into the 2nd half of July, climo usually wins.
    1 point
  45. Perfect day today imo. Looks like a below average day across the board.
    1 point
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