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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/26/21 in all areas

  1. Marine layer on the doorstep today.
    7 points
  2. Sunrise on the northeast side of Rainer. Beautiful views from everywhere! Also had a friend join me
    6 points
  3. July 30, 2020 vs July 26, 2021 snow pack.
    6 points
  4. ***SLIGHT*** differences over Northern Canadia between the GFS and Euro at day ten…
    5 points
  5. Awoke at 3 am so decided to just head up to Rainer this morning. So I was already up there during that first shot you took! Smoke free !
    5 points
  6. Today will be two minutes and twenty five seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
    5 points
  7. While most of our Sub endures the seasons longest Heat Wave of the season, what do we have to look forward to??? What does mother nature have in store for the last month of met Summer??? IMHO, big changes are coming this month and they start right out of the gates...in fact, an incredibly fascinating 500mb pattern sets up as we open up the month. I've been saying this for months now, but blocking this summer is going to produce some really odd wx patterns across our continent and impact our wx. As I write this post, the sun is beginning to rise but by the end of this month, the sun will be inching its way closer to setting way up north across the Arctic. Speaking of the Arctic, the summer has been cool to cold up that way and also into parts of N/NE Canada where there is still ice from the past winter. Temps up in the arctic circle have remained BN throughout the summer. Let's see how it finishes. Ice Ice baby...notice on this map the incredibly thick ice (5+ meters) that is currently present SW of Baffin Island. You could literally walk across this ice sheet into N Canada. Why is this important?? It is my opinion that this region will be the source region for early Autumn cool spells. Blocking? Troughs? Severe Wx....??? Typically speaking, in any ordinary month of August, severe wx is lacking due to the jet stream reaching its weakest point. This season, however, is not your typical summer season. Get ready and Gear up for some severe wx. What I'm seeing and predicting is some rare times whereby severe storms will be ushering in relief for our ag belt that is drying out, esp west of the MW. Let's take a look at what the models are showing and what we can expect this month. Winter in August??? What a wild looking Hudson Bay Vortex to welcome in August. Is this a theme for this month. I believe so. I would not be surprised if parts of eastern Canada see snow flakes flying by months end. There are numerous LR forecasting tools that indicate to me that by Week 2 of this month we could see our first taste of Autumn for areas of the N & E Sub. I have opined that this month will overall be the coolest month of the summer. All signs are certainly pointing that way. Ya'll ready for some relief??? All the models are dialing in on a much wetter pattern for the opening week of the month... Nature will be producing "Atmospheric Fireworks" in a not so common way this month....along with cooler temps...who will be on the receiving end??? Let's discuss....
    4 points
  8. This isn't the case at all. The reason you have this impression is because the local station you like to use was seriously overexposed earlier in the 20th century. Summers in the second half of the 20th century were generally both warmer and sunnier than in the first half, and precip has shown essentially no trend going back to the late 1800s with the possible exception of the last decade or so (though that could easily just be a random blip like we saw in the mid 1920s through the early 30s). There's also fact that September trended much more summerlike over the course of the 20th century. Here are the average summer temps and precip for the Puget Sound and Willamette Valley
    4 points
  9. Humidity, even in the absence of precipitation, is a substantial dampener on fire weather. There’s a good reason large, prominent conifers grow naturally (for now!) all the way down into California, despite our lengthy and bone-dry Mediterranean summer climate. Not only are our marine layers an effective cooling method; the humidity they provide gives our native species an ambient water source during our natural dry bouts, as well as a cap on destructive fire potential. It’s also all the more reason to be concerned by our sharp decline in marine pushes over the last 50 years. Such an innocuous change could result in vast consequences to our local ecology, and in many cases, it already is.
    4 points
  10. Sunny in Tacoma currently but cloudy under the marine layer down south here. Had a nice sunrise too before the clouds rolled in.
    4 points
  11. Pretty decent jet for early August out in la la land.
    3 points
  12. I'm really hoping we can tap into some of that monsoonal goodness later in August. Don't even care if it gets hoomid.
    3 points
  13. Impressive block over the Yukon.
    3 points
  14. As I have stated at times in the past I have two temperature sensors that are placed in my yard. One is placed in what I like to call the "cold" spot of the yard and the other in the "warm" spot. The over night low at the cold spot last night was 61.0 and and the warm spot the low was 63.1. Note in my reports I round up or down to the whole number. At this time the current readings are 68.4 (68) at the cold spot and 68.9 (69) at the warm spot. And yes I have switched the sensors and the results are the same the cold spot is colder and the warm spot is warmer most of the time that is less so on cloudy or windy days and nights when the readings are generally the same at both locations. Bottom line is that there can be temperature differences in a very short distance. I go for walks all the time and there is a place on my walks with a big hill to the west and in the low area east of the hill it is very noticeably cooler on clear calm evenings.
    3 points
  15. Can you make out my drain field? Everything is brown otherwise...haven't mowed the rest of the yard in two weeks and only contemplating it to knock down the weeds. Locally the drought here is comparable to 2012 and 1988.
    3 points
  16. First off, glad to have you here! Awesome to see new faces streaming in. There are a couple answers to your question. The functional/"What does this mean for my weather?" answer (what I'm assuming you're looking for) is that troughing is associated with a southward "dip" in the jet stream+storm track; the inverse of a "ridge", which is a northward surge in the jet. Troughing is (usually!) associated with cooler, wetter weather and is what us snow weenies look out for in the winter, since they can bring down arctic air from Canada. There is a more technical answer to this question, since troughing is a real meteorological term that is associated with physics; although you do not need to learn this, since local weather knowledge+pattern recognition goes a long way, and is in most cases all you really need. -- If you are interested, the more technical/"correct" answer to this involves the literal thickness of the atmosphere. Warm air being less dense than cold air means that it literally takes up more volume per unit mass comparatively. This is significant because we know that due to gravity, the atmosphere exerts a certain amount of pressure at any given point on or above earth's surface. We can measure atmospheric pressure using a device called a barometer, which uses mercury to determine just how heavy the atmosphere is at that location; usually measured in millibars (mb) due to how fine that unit of measurement is. The higher you go, the less pressure is exerted, since there is less atmosphere weighing down from above (the rest is below.) At sea level, where most of the world lives, the atmosphere exerts roughly 1000mb of pressure. For the sake of simplicity, let's say we have two identical airmasses, except one is 5°C cooler all the way up (surface to tropopause) than the other. We'll call the cooler one our "trough" sample. Now since we know that cold air contains less volume than warm air due to its higher density, we can infer that our trough airmass will be denser, and consequentially less spacious, than our warm airmass. To understand why that's important, let's compare what's going on inside our two examples. Starting at the surface, in this case sea level, we find the same measurement between the two (close to 1000mb), since in both cases the same amount of mass is weighing down from above. But as we increase our elevation, at the same rate, we'll find that the amount of atmospheric pressure exerted begins to diverge. We'll notice that the colder airmass will have a lower atmospheric pressure than the warmer airmass, even at the same altitude, let's say 15,000 feet. In other words, we do not need to go as high up to find a given pressure reading than in the warm airmass. The elevation at which, say, 500mb exists, is literally lower in a cooler airmass than in a warm one. If you were to make a cross-section, with x representing a slice of the surface and y as altitude, you'd find that there would be a "dip" in 500mb elevation where the airmass was cooler. Hence, a "trough"! Why is this? Well again, we need to think about our airmasses in terms of both temperature and volume. As we raise our barometer higher into the trough airmass, we'll find that we're rising above more air molecules at a faster rate than in the warm airmass, since the air is cooler and denser. To get a better idea of why this is, I threw together a diagram, since I am not too elegant with words. The same concepts are there, but presented visually. Essentially the term trough in an atmospheric context is used when thinking in terms of pressure, like a topographical map. Wikipedia has a great article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trough_(meteorology).
    2 points
  17. A cool August shocker would be fitting given the rhetoric in here of late.
    2 points
  18. Troughing is just a broad term for a dip in the jet steam with some form of cyclonic flow and relatively cool upper levels.
    2 points
  19. 18Z GFS looks fairly troughy next week.
    2 points
  20. 8 day event south of Portland. 7/24: 94 7/25: 94 7/26: 90+ 7/27: 91 7/28: 93 7/29: 97 7/30: 97 7/31: 94
    2 points
  21. Looks like a solid lineup. If you mix large quantities of light beer in with the hard alcohol you should stay hydrated.
    2 points
  22. Whoaaa.... Region 3.4 down to -0.5C.
    2 points
  23. 2 points
  24. After a 3-4 day bout with heat at the end of the month into first day or two of August, models seem to be converging on a cooldown of sorts. So at least at this point, it doesn't look like an extended period of hot temps. No sign of rain, though. At least for the westside.
    2 points
  25. On a side note, while PHX usually takes the wrap for CLIMATE CHANGE when they endure Heat, boy, I wonder what they will label this new all-time record??? Surely, the climate does change, it has been for millennia. I'm thrilled that the state has seen relentless rains this Monsoon season. https://twitter.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1419504499597606916 Here is a map of the last 14 days alone...pretty remarkable wx pattern for these parts and neighboring NM...
    2 points
  26. 101* today. 102* mañana. Somebody grab the BBQ sauce and turn me over. I’m done! 9 more days of this.
    2 points
  27. Yesterday ended up several degrees cooler than expected due to clouds. Now we’re getting some rain this morning which wasn’t forecasted. Gotta appreciate the little things during summer.
    2 points
  28. Looks like our crew will be going out around August 5. Not sure what fire yet, though.
    1 point
  29. Hey my degree was in history too. I actually found this site when trying to learn more about historic weather for the PNW.
    1 point
  30. So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events. When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air? If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's
    1 point
  31. Love Sunrise. You can pretty much just wander from the parking lot and find incredible views. Did the Mount Fremont Lookout Trail a few years ago. Spectacular.
    1 point
  32. Incredible shot. Where was it taken?
    1 point
  33. Hit 91.4 here today, but the dew mixed out to the low 60s this afternoon so not too bad. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow through Thursday as the dews are supposed to be much higher and thus keep our highs around 100. Part of me wants to see a run at 110 plus with low humidity of course
    1 point
  34. I was very pleased to wake up to a marine layer out on the island this morning. Im trying to go to ocean shores the 20-22nd.
    1 point
  35. Escape plan for Aug 1-3: Ocean Shores. Don’t look too bad inlands for these dates but 63-64F with clouds out at the coast is what I need right now.
    1 point
  36. I remember going to the Hillsboro air show during a 100 degree day in late July 2015.
    1 point
  37. Euro says PDX may hit triple digits to close out the month.
    1 point
  38. It also followed two days with highs of 83. Three straight days in the low 80s is unprecedented for Phoenix this time of year, at least in the airport era.
    1 point
  39. ORD hit 90F yesterday making it 2 days in a row of 90F+ temps and with today's predicted high of 91F it will officially be the 1st Heat Wave of the season. The air was much more tolerable on Sunday as DP's were in the upper 50's so it wasn't to bad outside. The soil is very moist from all the rains that fell. I'm right on the border of Mt Prospect and they had an official report of 1.67" of precip from the heavy storms on Sat. Of note, the DP reached its highest levels of the season on Sat at ORD (76F). Relief from the HEAT??? I'm liking the temp/DP trends for the 2nd half of the week around these parts. It's going to feel a whole lot better by late Thursday and through the weekend. Before then, however, the signal for severe wx this Wed/Thu is still looking primed for MN/WI and possibly into parts of MI/N IL. 0z Euro consistently showing very high CAPE values...I'm sure our CPC outlook will be heightened today or tomorrow.
    1 point
  40. You’ve mostly just been missing us trying to describe the severity of our weather situation to people over 1,000 miles away.
    1 point
  41. Just rained here after looking gloomy all day, 0.07". Still sprinkling now.
    1 point
  42. It was a lovely morning for a walk at the lake! 75/53 on the day. Currently 56.
    1 point
  43. NWS Hastings with a very detailed disco this morning on how models and Mets missed this ongoing thunderstorm activity that wasn’t seen 12-18 hours ago. I appreciate his honesty and apology for not seeing this. 3-5” in places have forced flash flood warnings to be issued for the first time since Mid May. I’m approaching 0.75” as heavy storms continue to develop. Farmers just north and east of me had 2-3” earlier and will only add to that this morning. Can you imagine what the dews will be when the real heat hits mid week? I’ll sweat standing in place.
    1 point
  44. Rain continues in my area. Going to be some impressive totals in some places. Radar just has storms reforming in the same areas.
    1 point
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