Leaderboard

Just 10 days away!

Euro is now picking up the behemoth of a storm that GFS has been showing in clown range. It's easy to shrug that off, but the seasons have to change at SOME point. This might just be the thing to do it. Looks good on ensembles, too.

That's legit

You mean fluffer, right?

@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

Been longing for these days. 60, off/on light rain.

Last year was top tier over here. Snow accumulating in Spokane during the day on October 23rd qualifies as top tier in my book.

Well... that settles it once and for all.

Any type of negative anomaly is exciting for jim. That’s just his thing nothing wrong with that. There are some fairly chilly by October standards fronts shown on the euro and gfs through day 10.

Rainfall this weekend wasn't a total bust. I picked up .90 over the last 2 days. Not as much as was needed but better than nothing. Temps this week look to be in the mid 70 possibly hitting the low 80s by next weekend.

Montana teams are kind of crushing it this year! We went to a couple of snow games our first couple of years here. It is always a fun atmosphere but the energy in a snow game brings it up to another level! Mid to late October is normally when we see our first significant snows so this year looks to be right on track. As long as we don't see below zero weather again this month then I'm okay with it!

Never too cold. Most people bring their own personal fluffer to address those issues.

Every single day on the 18z runs below average. All 16 of them. Some by -7 to -10 departures. Niña!

October perfection! Lows around 40 with highs in the mid 60s. 10 degrees cooler would be even more perfect-er. Hah

So true... happens to all of us. Confirmation bias is a b*tch.

This looks pretty nice. More rain in Northern California.

FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers. He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.

94-95 actually had a couple nice lowland snow events in the Portland area. 2017-18 was okay, January really sucked. I’d be good with 2006-07 but something like 2016-17 would be awesome.

Extended GFS showing storm after storm in the Plains. Even has some flakes around. Long ways out, will be interesting to watch the trends.

The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.

Maybe this will assuage those fears. 2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region. On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

This is a swing and a miss. You have to demonstrate that Niña/cold October is statistically more likely to precede a cold winter than Niña/warm October (hint: the ratio of warm/cold Niña Octobers to cold winters is roughly equal). Instead you’ve cherry picked 8 years *out of the last 150* that fit your desired criteria. You’re merely re-printing La Niña climo (and climate change, considering all of these occurred at least 50 years ago, minus 1984 which was a post-volcanic winter). What about the other 17 top-25 coldest Octobers that you didn’t mention? What about the multitude of Niña/warm October years that preceded cold/snowy winters out there (1988/89 and 2010/11 being just 2 examples of many)? If you don’t believe me, I’ll run through all Niña Octobers since 1850, yet again. I’ve only done it every year for the past decade.

LOL, I guess I should have specified, he is in the drumline. He is about 6' to 6'1" or so and about 130# soaking wet, he would get crushed if he tried to play football. That said, lugging tenor drums and cymbals around for 4 years will have covered $8,000 of his college expenses, so can't knock that.

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel.

We were thinking of hitting up wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!

That is a long time. Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter. If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.

Never too cold for that!!

Is that New California?

Only a January 1950 redux would satisfy all on this forum. Lol

1950-51 though. Not quite as flabbergastingly awesome but still a dated and unlikely parallel to today.

And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.

Gulf Low’s are always fun to track, esp with a massive banana HP to the N. Liking the start of this new pattern and the wave train of cutters setting up later next week into mid month.

This place never ceases to entertain me. Especially going into fall-winter. The real show begins at the end of February, particularly when winter didn't deliver the goods. Thank God March holds the wildcard

Mariners get 90 wins for the first time since 2003 analogs anyone?

Yeah GFS consistently forecasted 110+ for Lincoln and I think I saw as high as 117-118. Summer max was 103.

GFS is blue-balling us on WeatherBell.

That's what I'm thinking. Maybe even snow late in the run.

Maybe Day 12 has -6c 850s, thickness down to 527... We'll never know.

Maybe a metaphor for the coming winter?

00z GFS (Pivotal) stuck on Day 8

Wow! That is a shocking stat. I had two last winter alone.

Looks like it came up a bit short on the ONI reanalysis. I agree though that the overall correlation is pretty weak and this stuff often falls into the trap of confirmation bias. Terrible winters like 1999-00 and 1966-67 had pretty reasonably cool stretches in October and led to nothing. I think Jim is talking mainly about the top tier cold months, but the sample size among those is so weak from recent decades that it's hard to draw any kind of pattern. FWIW there are also some years like October 2016 grouped in with the cold Octobers even though they were generally a bit warmer than average in the region. That month was a total freakshow though and probably the cloudiest October on record here.

Whatever it is - back when it had trees, clouds and RAIN!

Here is something you guys might like. I did the cold October / cold ENSO thing from 1960 to present and the results are very obvious. The first graphic is Dec - Feb following the top 10 cold Octobers, the second is top 10 cold Octobers screened through cold ENSO, and the next is all cold ENSO winters. I was only able to fit 1960 through 2016-17 on there, but the other two (2017-18 and 2020-21) would not have changed the result much. Even I was surprised at how clear the signal is.

Incredibly cold ECMWF run with another cold trough digging down on us at day 10.

For our area the GFS has been 5-8 degrees to warm for over a month in the mid to long range.

That rainfall forecast completely fell apart. No cool spells in sight either. In fact, there still hasn't been a day at KLNK with the high below 70. The latest first sub-70 day is October 9th, going back to 1897. Every other year had achieved that by Aug or Sept.

Bend, Oregon