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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/07/21 in all areas

  1. Ice scraper season. We had our first frost a week earlier than expected. Son usually goes early for breakfast, but we had breakfast at home since I was caught by surprise.
    9 points
  2. Looks like someone dropped a nuke on the Acme/Wickersham area....
    5 points
  3. The storm train over the next week should put a nice dent in the northern plains drought.
    5 points
  4. Snow levels appear to have dropped to ~3,500 or so based on the frosted tips I'm seeing surrounding Sky Valley. Just gorgeous morning. Thick fog, low hanging clouds drifting over the crests of the hills...perfect.
    5 points
  5. alrighty at this point last year had 4" down...winter turned out like crap...let's flip this switch first week of Nov and rock till April! Going to pick up a new snowmobile trailer tomorrow, so we will find snow somewhere this year
    4 points
  6. Just took a walk around town. Was sprinkling the whole time and slowly increased to a very light rain. Very light breeze, low clouds and 68°. A lot of color starting to pop in the trees. Love these type of days as the seasons change.
    4 points
  7. The northern part of CR got the most, with a few spots over 0.80". I've picked up 0.18". It's nice to get some rain again. Monday still looks like a good soaker around here.
    4 points
  8. When a mommy and daddy positive height anomaly get together and decide to "mix it up" around 500mb then magic happens. NVM, I took some really good distillate this morning. Wheeeeee
    4 points
  9. Its an awesome live feed camera on the Faithlife building... https://faithlife.com/webcam
    4 points
  10. The 6z GFS just went from wet to wetter for next week, and off in fantasy land it goes cold with many of us seeing our first flakes of the season.
    4 points
  11. If the snow is as thick as the fog this morning I'm on good shape this winter. Its good to see a system target KC this early and another thing I see is that these storms are reaching their peak strength as they move into the Sub. That's something Gary always alludes to when putting together his winter forecast.
    4 points
  12. After analyzing past data from way back on Sept 22nd, coincidentally, the start of astronomical Autumn, we had a powerful Bearing Sea storm track across the Aleutians. Using the BSR as LR guidance, the major trough that is forecast to wallop the inter-mountain west early next week is quite the correlation. This system is going to become a powerhouse and likely become a signature storm of the LRC. I'm intrigued to see so many systems to track during the opening 2 weeks of October. I already envision the Oct 6th - 15th period to be referred as "Cutter Week Special" in future cycles. I gotta feeling my LRC notepad will be much longer and detailed than any other year. Giddy up! 0z EPS snow forecast...great start to the snow season out west... On another note, today's JMA weeklies are in and leaning towards the eastern CONUS trough I've been alluding to post 25th. Several other LR signals I use are especially driving the idea of a potentially amplified N.A. 500mb to close out the month and open Nov. See maps below...one of the strongest signals for the developing new pattern this entire month of Oct is the massive and expansive ridge over eastern Canada. This has blocking, blocking, blocking written all over it during the cold season and into early Spring. I really think we are going to see a ton of HP to our north as winter settles in that will "seed" the cold for systems that we track. Just my 2 cents. Week 2...after the wetter week next week, it looks like near normal precip for the majority of the Sub and a somewhat cooler period compared to the opening week 2 weeks of Oct. Precip/Temp...Once the beast storm early next week rolls through the N Sub, I think we will see re-adjusting of the troughs/ridge patterns across the CONUS. These temps will be refreshing and feel more October-like.... Week 3-4...the week of the 24th is my target period where the North American pattern begins to dial up hints of winter in the lower 48. The SW will dry up as the ridge builds in as the stout eastern Canadian ridge holds steady will create a corridor of storms to track underneath the block up north in Canada. Could there be a Halloween storm to track across the eastern Sub??? Precip/Temp...the nation will be active from coast-to-coast, esp when you take into consideration the blocking up in Canada. My, oh my, we are certainly going to see an active month ahead. This is fascinating to see in the model world, but especially, it would be wonderful to see in the "real world"...haha ... Regards to the temps during this period, look for it to start off seasonal but trend colder to close out Oct....
    4 points
  13. Speaking of nature, it appears she will be alleviating the drought across the Upper MW/MW over the next 10 days. 0z Euro couldn't dial it up much better than this. It literally has the heaviest ribbons of precip smack dab over the areas that need it most (N MN/IA/N IL).
    4 points
  14. On and off showers today totaled up to .22 inches. Slowly starting to get some moisture again the last 7 days.
    4 points
  15. Reed timmer getting excited about next week. If it comes to fruition, and the LRC is legit, this baby will be a signature for 2021-22!
    4 points
  16. Those are some downright good ones alright. A lot of those winters had major cold.
    3 points
  17. Not terrible…these totals aren’t far off of what you’d expect in the first half of October in terms of climo. Looks cool and there’s some rain…coming off some pretty wet weather in September I’d say we’re doing pretty good feels like we’re actually in a nina.
    3 points
  18. Euro Control has the same trough as the 6z GFS. I'm ready to an end to this heat!
    3 points
  19. Well, he’s partially right. As Tim has pointed out many times, if the wind is calm and you’re standing in direct sunlight on the deck, temperatures in the mid teens can feel quite toasty.
    3 points
  20. Immediately replaced next run with huge ridge and warmth. Fun, but anyone looking at pattern change from the GF(fantasy)S in the long term has not followed that model very long.
    3 points
  21. Got down to 42F. Cloudy skies and a very pleasant 51F out there right now.
    3 points
  22. Scream at the heavens until a divine voice emerges from your neighbor's window telling you to shut up
    3 points
  23. 43 here in Renton. 27 in Twisp. Making an emergency run over there because someone (me) forgot to blow out the orchard water pipes and take the timers inside!!
    3 points
  24. I remember the ones I saw in 2016 looked like that.
    3 points
  25. Flagstaff is getting down into the teens. Meanwhile, I haven't even gotten to the 30s yet. I'm not salty, you're salty.
    3 points
  26. Chilly rain showers just aren’t that exciting to most people. Maybe we will luck out and get a light freeze in the next week
    2 points
  27. 51.7 average for the first week of October is pretty darn nippy! The second week is easily going to come in below 50 for many.
    2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. Digging like a gopher with a backhoe
    2 points
  30. North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming are looking wetter than Oregon and Washington.
    2 points
  31. That’s gonna hurt like a mofo when rivers ‘round these parts are frozen solid by Boxing Day.
    2 points
  32. Some nice analogs are showing up. Digging the trough off the coast is trouble though.
    2 points
  33. Rest In Peace Ray Combs. Is Louie Anderson still alive?
    2 points
  34. Last few days of the 12z Euro, and comparison of Day 9.5 for 12z vs 00z
    2 points
  35. Especially after a few peppermint smirnoffs!
    2 points
  36. When youve been riding in the saddle for as long as Rob has, you just know when something aint right with a model run. Todays 12z is a bit different for us. Also it helps that goofus is basically monkey/dartboard after day 7 12z GFS today (left) vs 12z GFS yesterday (right) - thru day 7
    2 points
  37. Remember Dean Wysocki? Dean Wysocki from Lincoln? Yeah, well he's at WDAY in Fargo now. Douchebag human being but still a good met.
    2 points
  38. It appears to be on the top of this building...
    2 points
  39. Briefly dropped to 37° this morning.
    2 points
  40. Models are consistently showing the current rain event lifting east and north of my area. I'm hopeful for the Monday system as models are looking better.
    2 points
  41. Thats a heck of a trough. Turns into a closed off low over the lakes. Kind of in line with @Tom's thought toward late October. Obviously way out in fantasy but something to take note of.
    2 points
  42. 2 points
  43. This summer was amazing for severe weather here. That big western ridge sent shortwaves crashing right into Appalachia, sparking storms almost daily (and legit severe outbreaks multiple times per week). Heck we’ve had two thunderstorm days in the last week despite sitting under a ridge. Some years never quit.
    2 points
  44. I don't have time for this either but rushed some numbers into excel for Duluth. The only annoying part was flipping through every October since 1980. Not very famillar with DLH climo, but now jealous that their worst seasons are comparable to Lincoln's best Didn't feel like calculating the snowfall departures, 1991-2020 average is 90.2". Oct departures are based off 1991-20 as well - negative departures are mostly in the 80s and 90s. Year Snowfall Oct departure 1980-81 36.5 -5.2 1981-82 95.7 -3.7 1982-83 96.5 1 1983-84 107.3 0.8 1984-85 68.2 1.6 1985-86 89.3 -1.4 1986-87 40.6 -0.7 1987-88 53.8 -4.7 1988-89 119.1 -5.6 1989-90 58.3 0.3 1990-91 63.8 -2 1991-92 100 -3.7 1992-93 94.2 -2.5 1993-94 110.4 -4.1 1994-95 91.2 3.1 1995-96 135.4 -0.4 1996-97 128.2 -0.5 1997-98 80.1 -0.2 1998-99 90.2 1.8 1999-00 55.5 -1.8 2000-01 99.3 2.7 2001-02 86 -0.7 2002-03 56.3 -8.5 2003-04 109.9 0.2 2004-05 91.5 1.2 2005-06 89.2 1.8 2006-07 80.7 -4.3 2007-08 80 3.6 2008-09 73.6 0.5 2009-10 65.8 -5.1 2010-11 93.4 2.8 2011-12 49.1 4.4 2012-13 129.4 -1.6 2013-14 131 0.9 2014-15 49.2 0.7 2015-16 81.4 2.2 2016-17 67 3.5 2017-18 91.9 1.5 2018-19 106.8 -3.1 2019-20 92.2 0.4 2020-21 82.6 -6.1 Looking at the graph, correlation looks very weak at best. Most notable things: All four seasons above 120" had an October fairly close to average. Also, no winter with over 100" of snow was more than 0.9 degrees above average. Might have a clearer picture with a larger sample size, but I thought 40 years would be plenty lmao.
    2 points
  45. Cold enough for socks(c)Rob 2017) tonight.
    1 point
  46. For persistence of cold this is going to be pretty top tier for this early. The month to date averages are already solidly below normal. I guess a lot of people don't like cold in October, because of the perception it's a bad sign.
    1 point
  47. I'm not sure, but I would bet the PNW is better for warm core (southerly flow) thunderstorms than the UK. We can get some real nice ones on occasion.
    1 point
  48. 12z ECMWF vs 12z GFS - Total Precip - 240hr
    1 point
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