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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/22/21 in all areas

  1. Before these Bombnado Cyclones strip all the colors from these trees!
    11 points
  2. Beautiful evening here after the rains passed. Good enough to get some kayaking in.
    10 points
  3. Placement of the low isn’t as important as looking at the nature of the system. This is a displaced maritime polar vortex and associated surface low. Our traditional windstorms are typically associated with open waves which feature strong jet support and associated backside pressure rises.
    10 points
  4. I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound. But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size. That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. that sounds perfect!
    7 points
  5. Weekly control run is also very cold from the second week of November through the end of the run.
    7 points
  6. As some have mentioned, the secondary front that came through yesterday was noteworthy. I could totally see this system cycle through as being a potent hybrid clipper that has an arctic component to it. Very impressive to say the least. Woke up early yesterday morning when temps were in the 60's and by Noon it was in the upper 40's! It was a very raw, breezy and chilly day yesterday. Autumn is certainly here to stay and now that the models are beginning to show the effects of the Hudson Bay/High Lat blocking, cooler temps are in the grids. This is going to feel like one of those classic flips into #RealAutumn. Not to mention, but is nature dialing up Back-to-Back CO Bowling Balls???? Man, what a friggin' phenomenal pattern. I'm wx geekin' over here! With so much on my mind as we see this fascinating wx pattern develop, I'll be the first one to say, that I'm convinced our Sub will be see something we haven't seen in a while. In other words, when you combine the potency of the systems, the number of systems and then you add the blocking patterns into the mix, I haven't seen a pattern like this in over a decade for the Autumn season...maybe longer??? It just seems like its been a very Longgg time ago. Let's talk storms...the latest storm to spin up late this weekend is poised to become yet another potent mid-lat cyclone tracking underneath a sweet "Banana HP". A dream track for us in the MW/Lower Lakes region. Is that all....nope! Another potent system tracks off the Pacific into the west and takes a similar track through Cali/CO into the developing LRC's "Slot". This type of track encompasses many of us in the Sub to feel the impacts of what will be a grand finally massive trough over the GL's region to finish off the month. BTW, watch that tropical energy entering W Mexico and phasing into the flow over TX. Are we seeing a Harmonic Rhythm within the developing pattern? It was just about 2 weeks to the date that a similar pattern developed down there and into the S Plains. Wild stuff. SO, as this active pattern continues to develop, our Nation is going to be inundated with beneficial precip out West and East. Coast to Coast Action....I remember back in 2016, the inter mountain west had barely any snow. In fact, I remember it vividly bc I drove into CO when the Cubs won the World Series and it snowed the night before a couple inches in the Foothills of CO. That was the only snow of the Autumn season through early Nov. Pretty lame...but not this year. Happy Friday folks! Bundle up...and Giddy up...I'm stoked where we are heading.
    7 points
  7. 18z NAM showed the low kinda stalled and meandered for a few hours with pressure if 946-947mb before lifting north and NW into Vancouver Island. Still not much of an impact for most of the region but considering how potent this storm is, the stalling could potentially prolong and pump the wind gusts into the region for some expanded advisories. Lots of coastal impact. We’ll see.
    6 points
  8. Decent day out here looks like some rain will be moving in soon.
    6 points
  9. Time to fire up the Weber and cook some chicken and roast some yams! There won’t be many more days to use the grill this season so might as well use it while you can. EDIT: 0z EPS opens the door for Ol’ Man Winter in Novembrrrr….it’s gonna get chilly folks!
    6 points
  10. If we get arctic air I won’t complain when it happens.
    6 points
  11. Active weather! It was pouring all morning long.
    6 points
  12. How this low tracks will be interesting. Right now the Euro tracks the low along US 36 in northern Mo. The GFS tracks the low along I-80 through central Iowa. This time it's no biggie it's just who gets a little more rain than others but if this were Winter it would be model mayhem.
    6 points
  13. Well I might be dating myself, but Dec 1968 and Jan 1969 must be considered top tier. 2 major snowfalls accompanied by a static Arctic air mass that lasted the entire month of Jan 1969
    5 points
  14. Quite a different look here today compared to what I left yesterday. Clouds did finally move in/thicken up mid-afternoon
    5 points
  15. Man what a flip in the pattern. I only reached 46 today. Another freeze warning tonight (last night only got down to 34). Its already clear and 43 so we should hit upper 20s tonight. Local met has got rid of any 60s in the next 10 days. All 50s with only upper 40s and rain on Sunday. A few days ago it was looking considerably warmer for next week.
    5 points
  16. Depends what you mean by major. 2010-11 had a subsequent arctic airmass in February. 2006-07 had one in January. 1996-97 had a very similar pattern repeat in late December. 1985-86 had a fake cold December and then a very active February. 1978-79 stayed frigid through early February. 1959-60 had major snows in January and March. 1946-47 had subsequent airmasses in January. 1921-22 stayed cold throughout. 1911-12 had a subsequent airmass in early January. 1900-01 had a very snowy January. 1896-97 had subsequent airmasses in January and March. 1887-88 had an epic January. 1872-73 and 1859-60 both had very cold Decembers. So it's actually much more common to see follow up events than not after a November cold/snow event.
    5 points
  17. Looks like a cut and paste la niña forecast.
    5 points
  18. I’m surprised Jim hasn’t posted about the weeklies yet. Some of the members go full Nov 1985.
    5 points
  19. 5 points
  20. I officially have seen frost on the tops of roofs on my morning walk. I can check that off of the Autumn list. Now I wait for the 1st freeze. Got down to 38F.
    5 points
  21. Another severe weather set-up coming this weekend. This system could deliver a major severe weather outbreak in the KC area come Spring time and some major Winter weather before then. I believe it's been over 2 years since KC had a Tornado Watch, I would say the chance of that ending next Spring is close to 100% it may end this weekend. And there's more with the 2nd storm
    5 points
  22. This is the hr936 EPS mean. Cherry picked timeframe but…dayuum that’s an arctic express pattern if I’ve ever seen one. Giant horseshoe block from AK/Aleutians to Greenland.
    5 points
  23. 4 points
  24. Moon is pretty bright tonight even through the high clouds. (Sh*t camera quality need a better one) Tempting to get out on the kayak.
    4 points
  25. Sh*t… I just put the finishing touches on my double-time time lapse video of the June 2021 heatwave. Lesson learned for dragging my feet on that.
    4 points
  26. 51 here in the swamp but dry for the moment and no wind to speak of. Candles and matches are out. Flashlights all charged up and extra batteries nearby. Also got out my oil lantern and gassed up my generator. Hope I don't need any of those items.
    4 points
  27. Can’t believe no one has mentioned December 2021 yet.
    4 points
  28. Then they'll do the classic "sEe!!! ThE wEaThEr pEopLe ArE aLwaYs WrOnG!!!!!"
    4 points
  29. Cedar Rapids is currently the coldest location in Iowa.... 42º. We should get to the low 30s tonight. We certainly don't have far to fall.
    4 points
  30. 4 points
  31. Makes you wonder if the SSW might have mixed things up where the cold/snow window is now bumped up to mid November through mid December. Historically a very good period for Arctic cold.
    4 points
  32. Enjoy! We drove out to Hama Hama yesterday and then spent the night at Alderbrook. Fall colors were about as good as they get in the PNW.
    4 points
  33. The models are pretty similar, showing something like this.
    4 points
  34. Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls.
    4 points
  35. Fogy and cool here this morning with temps in the lower 40's. Some reports of scattered frost in the KC area.
    4 points
  36. Interesting temp trends to our current 5-day period compared to 3 days ago per the EPS... 3 days ago... Vs Current 5-day period... Meantime, I like seeing these "ripples" in the atmosphere tracking underneath the base of the strong trough centered over Ontario as we some snow falling near @FAR_Weather. I recall back in Feb of this year we had a similar situation happen when numerous waves tracked in a similar fashion. Interesting to see a similar pattern.
    4 points
  37. NAM cutting it real close. Very similar to 2016 Songda path.
    4 points
  38. Night shift is gonna be one helluva party this year.
    4 points
  39. Anything after 11/15 is fair game in my books. And getting cold in November isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes you get cold and stay cold, especially in La Niña years... A la 1955/56 (yes I know, different climate state, but my point still stands) Also do you mind sharing some of those "ridiculously cold" EPS members? I'd love to see some snowmaps
    4 points
  40. Opposite of that 2013-18 baffin island death vortex pattern. Solid signal for almost 1000hrs out.
    4 points
  41. Already down to 37. Hard freeze likely tonight and tomorrow night! Local met now has only 50s for highs the next 10 days. They keep getting lowered.
    4 points
  42. SEA had 2"+ of snow every month from Dec-Mar in 2008-09. Only winter on record that has achieved that.
    3 points
  43. GRR AFD was crazy long this pm. Cannot remember a longer one outside of winter since perhaps Nov 2013's big storm. This is just the Sun/Mon system. If it were only winter, lol - System Sunday night into Monday rather wet and windy We do get an significant rain event later Sunday into Monday. This results from the lead Pacific shortwave cutting under the blocking upper high in Central Canada. Curiously as it tracks east in tries to phase with another shortwave rotating around the eastern Canada upper low (was over Hudson Bay). This results in a coupled upper jet feature over our area. We will be in the deformation zone of this system as the surface low will track between I-80 and I-94. The system will have strong Gulf inflow. It will also have decent mid -level FGEN between I-94 and I-96 Sunday night into Monday. There will be strong isentropic lift north of the warm front (between I-94 and I-96). So, while initially the systems rain shield will have to fight dry air coming in from Ontario, there is by far and away enough moisture overriding the front to bring the rain to the ground. There is good model and ensemble agreement of between a 0.5" and 1.5" of rain from this event. I could see locally 2 inches falling. The good news is the heaviest rain will be where was fairly dry most of the late summer into early fall. With a large Canadian high, centered just west of Hudson Bay and 1000 mb low tracking just south of I-94, there will be a strong, cold east wind Monday over this area.
    3 points
  44. I got the generator tuned in and extra fuel, which means a non event most likely, don't need the neighbors trees to come down.
    3 points
  45. https://www.experiencewestport.com/live-westport-webcam For the new folks out there lurking….fun camera to watch during these wind events! 55*
    3 points
  46. Monday looking very raw around SEMI DTX: Moisture flux persists during this time supporting PWATs in excess of 1.00 inch, and could see some heavier showers. Not much accompanying warmth near the surface given ambient ENE flow through Monday. Anticipate a windy Monday afternoon as stronger LLJ winds spill north amongst modest surface pressure gradient.
    3 points
  47. Here is the 06Z ECMWF... looks like it bottoms out at 942mb.
    3 points
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