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A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

Mini Frosty and Mrs. Frosty joining the gang

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Ummm we had our first freeze… School delay, and 1.5” of snow.

On a personal note, one of my dogs (My avatar pic is of her.), has been missing for about a week and a half. Her disappearance has baffled me, she's 10 years old, she never runs off, and I was unable to track her at all in the snow. I was worried she had wandered off and fallen in a creek, through the ice on a pond, been killed by the cougar that has been stalking the hill, etc... The worst part was the not knowing. Anyways, my wife suggested today that I search animal shelters, and lost dog postings. Seems obvious, but the area we live in is so remote, it seemed out of the question she would be at a shelter, we posted on the local facebook page, and no one had seen her, so I had thought the worst had happened. But today we located her at a shelter in Vancouver, not quite sure how she got there, but it is definitely her... They said she did not like kennel life, and has been fostered up in Skamania County and has been LOVING the snow. Such unexpectedly great news, we'll be picking her up this evening. My guess is she made it to the highway, and someone passing through picked her up and maybe the lived up in Clark county so they dropped her off at the shelter up there. Very strange.

Best birthday present possible.

WHAT an event. Huge overperformance for us at this location. Measured 5.5" of snow. Just incredible.

Happy Thanksgiving I just wanted to wish you all a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. I'm glad the weather will be cooperating for all of your travel destinations. This year it's very bittersweet since my brother suddenly passed this past June. It's just my Mother and I. That's my entire family now. It will be very scaled back. It gives me clearer perspective and appreciation for her more than ever and I'll need that. It's going to be rough. I also wanted to mention as tacky as it might sound? but I am thankful for this weather forum, all of the model riding, discussions, differing personalities, and humor. Definitely humor. Make the best of this holiday, and make new, lasting memories. Now let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

Phantom snow has begun!

Made it to the cabin. Fire is stoked, beer, pizza, ready for the snow storm tomorrow. 10 to 16 inches forecast for Winthrop. Lot of friends thought I was crazy to drive over from the west side for one night but I wanted to be here for the first big snow fall. Going to watch football tomorrow and enjoy the day and head home after dinner.

Picked up 9" of snowfall here last night. Trees are NOT happy about it! Currently 27 and still snowing. IMG_1804.mov

And so it begins...

I decided to catch the lenticular show up close…..what a show it was

I’m blown away.

Back in the states and home now. Iceland is a pretty incredible place. We happened to be there during an unusually cold and snowy period as well which added to the climate shock.

Had a lovely trip to MT/WY. Ended up doing Yellowstone and the Tetons instead of Glacier. Stayed in Bozeman for a night and got to see some piles of Kayla's urban snow! Lotta snow still above 7000'. made the hiking tough but definitely got me in the mood for winter. Nice to see the models coming around almost on queue.

Little photo dump of the new kid. He is currently in 9-12 month clothing even tho he is only 5 months lol

Big time lightning here on Snoqualmie ridge at the golf tourney. This photo from my golf cart. It screwed up my phone when taking

A bit over 3/4" as the grass is almost covered. Not bad. More than I expected.

About 2.5” of snow on the south side of Bend. Rain started around 3am and transitioned to snow around 5-6am. More precip in the first 9 hours of November than all of October.

Not going to miss the swamps snowhole✌

One of the best winter pics I've taken. This is 4 Miles from my cabin.

Had a beautiful week in the Canadian Rockies visiting Banff and Yoho NPs. Had some very low snow levels on Monday, down around 5500', and gradually warmed and cleared in the days since. Amazing views everywhere you look!

Made it to top of gold mountain. 8 inches up there fresh. Man it was windy and cold up there. 28 degrees there. The nws used to have a observation up there and it went off line few years ago. That observation up there was a valuable tool. When it was working I knew without a doubt if the airmass would support snow just by knowing the temp there at 1700ft.

Picked up 4" in 2 hours and now it has stopped. Dog approves

Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park.

As others have noted, there’s something about sun on snow…

I'm here in Sweden this week where it is cold, dark, snowy and windy but beautiful! This shot was taken around 2pm yesterday.

16 new with 20-24 on ground. Wind was 30 mph lastnight and 21 degrees. Very powerful storm.

Went on a frigid evening walk with the dog at the nearby park. 9 degrees with 9" fresh on the ground.

Aurora IMBY, 4:00 am

It is snowing, there was zero rain at the start, just straight snow.

Holy *** thunder snow here !!!

8-9 Inches now

1000 feet elevation in Vancouver.

For your viewing pleasure. snowing on the BC passes

I was interested in how anomalous yesterday's 88F was at SEA. Based on my analysis, it may have been the most anomalous record high temperature ever recorded at SEA, even more rare than the 108F in June 2021! I share my analysis/statistical reasoning below the graph. Sorry if it get's a little confusing when I start talking about "average record highs." I took every record high temperature on the books at SEA and plotted them on this graph based on how many degrees they were above average. For example, the average temperature at SEA on June 28th is 74F which is how we get the dot that's 34 degrees above average marked in the center of the graph from our 108F day. There's clearly a seasonal component in our record high temperatures. In the winter there's not a ton of variability. On January 8th the record high is 54F, which is only 7 degrees above the average high of 47F. I decided to take this seasonality into account by averaging the difference between the record high and the average high for each month. So in January a record high is normally only about 11 degrees warmer than the average temperature for that date (record highs in the 50s while average highs in the 40s) while in June a record high is 21 degrees above the average temperature for that date (records in the 90s while average highs in the 70s). I then took the standard deviation of the records for each month. June has the greatest variability in record highs (the standard deviation is 4.65 degrees) while February has the lowest variability in record highs (standard deviation 2.3 degrees). Of course a big contributor to the large standard deviation is June's highs are the three 100+ records from 2021, but it's hard to pick and choose data so we'll ignore that. If you've studied statistics you'll know that you can use standard deviation to build a confidence interval for normalized distributions,. There's more that goes into this, but basically we can say that for normal distributions we'd expect 95% of the data to fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Anything that is greater than 2 standard deviations away from the average (depending on the context) is considered an outlier. On the graph I've highlighted all the values that were at least 2 standard deviations above the average record high for that month. Yesterday's 88F at SEA was not only 28F above average, but was 3.3 standard deviations above the average record high for October (which is usually about 14 degrees above average). Meanwhile, last year's 108F was only 2.7 standard deviations above the average record high for June. So basically yesterday's 88F was less statistically likely for mid October than 108F was for late June. Obviously the arbitrary month cutoff is not perfect. Perhaps it would be better if I did a rolling average of 20 or 30 days centered on each date, but I thought it was at least an interesting idea to consider. And with only 30 days in a month, using standard deviation is not the best measure of abnormality (it probably works better for a larger sample size), but it's easier to compute and understand than other methods.

Had to get out to the coast for a few days with the nice weather. Amazing leaving the inversion and seeing such blue skies. Saw the biggest herd of elk I've seen in a long time, approximately 60 head, then watched them cross the Gray's River. Stuck in construction traffic on the Astoria bridge and was able to photograph Mt. St. Helens with Adams on the left through the blurry inversion. And caught sunset at Lincoln City, complete with a green flash on some of my pictures.

Saw this posted on social media.

Block is looking better at the base on the 00z gfs.

Live pic here. Some days North Bend is truly another world. Not only did it rain all day at the exit just west of us I-90 but the snow on the ground is basically gone there. That is just a few miles away at the same elevation. We did not lose any snow today and added another 2 inches! The east wind provided just enough cold air to keep it snow all day out here.

There was a discussion earlier of how this year was the "Year without a Fall" in the PNW as a result of the September/October torch and the November freeze. I was interested in if there was a way to actually quantify this for some cities in Western Washington (I'm too lazy to do Oregon, but the data and analysis is quite simple to find/complete if you're interested). I first wondered if I could look at monthly averages. If you have a steep drop off from September to October or October to November in average temperatures then it may suggest you "skipped fall." The problem with such coarse analysis is what happens if the pattern change happens midway through the month? Then October ends up average even if the first half of the month was significantly above average and the second half was significantly below. Instead I decided to look at individual highs for each day during the meteorological fall (September 1 to November 30) and compare them to average values. Clearly meteorological fall is a better measure than astronomical fall because by December 21st most of the area has already bottomed out for high temperatures. I only looked at high temperatures because as discussed on here before, the average person probably doesn't pay that much attention to the low for the day. I could have also looked at precipitation, but that would have made the analysis more difficult and I'm not sure how you would distinguish summer precipitation from fall precipitation from winter precipitation. For Seattle (SEA), Bellingham (BLI), and Olympia (OLM) I looked at how many days each station had where the high temperature was outside the bounds of the average high temperature between September 1st and November 30th. For example, the average high at SEA on September 1st is 75F and the average high at SEA on November 30th is 49F. So I counted up how many days in each year of record the high was 75F or above (I decided to include the boundary values) and how many days the high was below 50F. I've included the top 10 years for each city below. Seattle In the period of record, autumn 2022 was the least "fall-like" on record. Only 56% of the days (total of 40 out of 91) featured a high between 50F and 75F. The next closest year was 1994 with 59% of days being "fall-like." In case you're wondering, 2016 and 1954 were the most "fall-like" autumns in Seattle with 91% and 92% (respectively) of the high temperatures falling within the normal range. Bellingham Bellingham is cooler than Seattle by September 1st with an average high of 71F, and because of that the warm Sept/Oct were even more anomalous. 1/3 of the season featured highs warmer than the autumn maximum and almost 50% of all the days were outside of the 49-70 range. This was significantly more outlier days than any other year (1975 featured 62% of "fall-like" days) while 2018 was the most "fall-like" with 91% of days falling within the normal range. Olympia Olympia starts September with an average high of 76F and ends November with an average high of 47F. Once again, 2022 was the least "fall-like" by a wide margin with 40 days (56%) which fell outside of the normal bounds. 1994 was next closest with 64% of abnormally warm or cool days. The most "fall-like" year for Olympia was 1954 (same as Seattle) when a full 95% of autumn days had highs that were within the normal range.

A bit of a personal post on my end. This was a few years in the making but had to postponed several times due to the passing of my mom during Covid and obviously the continuation of Covid until we are safe to travel. And also why I made this trip back to the home country for the first time in 20 years. This was taken at Central Highlands of Vietnam in Da Lat early morning. The fog and mists was just like home.

Dropped down to -16F here this morning with 5" of new snow overnight. Currently -13F. Here's our garden area. There are four garden boxes under there somewhere! Looking forward to gardening season but until then, bring on the snow and cold! And what it looked like in July this past year.

We missed the brunt if the huge storm here as expected but still 14 new since Monday. The drive lastnight was insane.

Wow just had thunder snow!!!!