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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/02/21 in all areas

  1. A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted
    41 points
  2. We continue to have gently wafting snowflakes all morning here in Lynnwood, which allows for one of my all-time favorite hobbies.
    39 points
  3. Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.
    37 points
  4. On a personal note, one of my dogs (My avatar pic is of her.), has been missing for about a week and a half. Her disappearance has baffled me, she's 10 years old, she never runs off, and I was unable to track her at all in the snow. I was worried she had wandered off and fallen in a creek, through the ice on a pond, been killed by the cougar that has been stalking the hill, etc... The worst part was the not knowing. Anyways, my wife suggested today that I search animal shelters, and lost dog postings. Seems obvious, but the area we live in is so remote, it seemed out of the question she would be at a shelter, we posted on the local facebook page, and no one had seen her, so I had thought the worst had happened. But today we located her at a shelter in Vancouver, not quite sure how she got there, but it is definitely her... They said she did not like kennel life, and has been fostered up in Skamania County and has been LOVING the snow. Such unexpectedly great news, we'll be picking her up this evening. My guess is she made it to the highway, and someone passing through picked her up and maybe the lived up in Clark county so they dropped her off at the shelter up there. Very strange.
    36 points
  5. Ummm we had our first freeze… School delay, and 1.5” of snow.
    34 points
  6. Made it to the cabin. Fire is stoked, beer, pizza, ready for the snow storm tomorrow. 10 to 16 inches forecast for Winthrop. Lot of friends thought I was crazy to drive over from the west side for one night but I wanted to be here for the first big snow fall. Going to watch football tomorrow and enjoy the day and head home after dinner.
    33 points
  7. Picked up 9" of snowfall here last night. Trees are NOT happy about it! Currently 27 and still snowing. IMG_1804.mov
    33 points
  8. Happy Thanksgiving I just wanted to wish you all a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. I'm glad the weather will be cooperating for all of your travel destinations. This year it's very bittersweet since my brother suddenly passed this past June. It's just my Mother and I. That's my entire family now. It will be very scaled back. It gives me clearer perspective and appreciation for her more than ever and I'll need that. It's going to be rough. I also wanted to mention as tacky as it might sound? but I am thankful for this weather forum, all of the model riding, discussions, differing personalities, and humor. Definitely humor. Make the best of this holiday, and make new, lasting memories. Now let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
    32 points
  9. Picked up about another inch this evening. Some of the roads are starting to get some legitimate snow banks. Also, noticing more cars nearly completely covered
    31 points
  10. Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction between the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the east it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the west of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.
    31 points
  11. 31 points
  12. Had a lovely trip to MT/WY. Ended up doing Yellowstone and the Tetons instead of Glacier. Stayed in Bozeman for a night and got to see some piles of Kayla's urban snow! Lotta snow still above 7000'. made the hiking tough but definitely got me in the mood for winter. Nice to see the models coming around almost on queue.
    30 points
  13. Did the thing on this -40 degree bluebird sky morning! My Movie 4.mov
    29 points
  14. Not going to miss the swamps snowhole✌
    29 points
  15. Back in the states and home now. Iceland is a pretty incredible place. We happened to be there during an unusually cold and snowy period as well which added to the climate shock.
    28 points
  16. Merry Christmas to all of y'all who have brightened my spirits and have shown me such graciousness. I'm grateful for all of you. Thank you for helping me overcome my struggles with epilepsy with this happiness.
    28 points
  17. Hey just wanted to wish you all a safe, blessed, and Merry Christmas. If you are traveling to family or friends, I wish you safe travels. Sorry for my absence. I love this group and tracking events with you all, but when an event actually takes place and once my FB group setting is changed to [Winter Storm Mode] or [Snow Mode] all of my attention turns to my group, keeping many threads organized, and all of the Radar Updates, Gradient Updates, etc. It is my obligation. Wow! What a Winter Storm. To think we really were only brushed by that bitter trough, but a good chunk of it slid down into eastern Washington. That's all we needed. Highlights of the event. Lowest high temp: 19.0. Minimum temp: 15.1 .... We had an extensive period of east wind gusting 40-55mph, and then Friday around 2:30 AM the peak gusts of the storm blasted through. They were incredible strongest I've seen in many years easily 55mph+. I did manage a good accumulation of sleet, then some snow, and the heaviest snow flurry I've ever had tiny micro flakes though. PDX-DLS eclipsed -15mb during the peak as well! I managed a few pre-White Christmas pics too. We lucked out today avoiding an ice storm even though low level cold has hung on forever it seems closer to areas near the cold Gorge outflow. I did end up with .2" of ice, but not enough to ruin Christmas Eve plans! Merry Christmas!
    28 points
  18. One of the best winter pics I've taken. This is 4 Miles from my cabin.
    28 points
  19. December 19, 2022 Dear Washingtonians, May the most benevolent outcome occur on this chilly December night. Let the snow pile high, and make sure to post LOTS of pictures, so we can be in the moment with you. Sincerely, your brothers from Oregon
    27 points
  20. 33F and snowing moderately. Very nice to see. Hope you all get some snow before the week ends.
    27 points
  21. A bit over 3/4" as the grass is almost covered. Not bad. More than I expected.
    27 points
  22. As others have noted, there’s something about sun on snow…
    27 points
  23. About 2.5” of snow on the south side of Bend. Rain started around 3am and transitioned to snow around 5-6am. More precip in the first 9 hours of November than all of October.
    27 points
  24. Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park.
    27 points
  25. Went on a frigid evening walk with the dog at the nearby park. 9 degrees with 9" fresh on the ground.
    27 points
  26. I'm here in Sweden this week where it is cold, dark, snowy and windy but beautiful! This shot was taken around 2pm yesterday.
    26 points
  27. 16 new with 20-24 on ground. Wind was 30 mph lastnight and 21 degrees. Very powerful storm.
    26 points
  28. Picked up 4" in 2 hours and now it has stopped. Dog approves
    26 points
  29. I have to post these pics. My mom is misses Christmas and always has been. She has been doing this for years and adds to it every year. 68 years old and she still does all the lights herself, the inside of there little house is a hallmark post card. The pics do it no justice.
    25 points
  30. Had to get out to the coast for a few days with the nice weather. Amazing leaving the inversion and seeing such blue skies. Saw the biggest herd of elk I've seen in a long time, approximately 60 head, then watched them cross the Gray's River. Stuck in construction traffic on the Astoria bridge and was able to photograph Mt. St. Helens with Adams on the left through the blurry inversion. And caught sunset at Lincoln City, complete with a green flash on some of my pictures.
    25 points
  31. Wife took a picture of me this morning on our back deck sound asleep. Some new gear arrived so I figured perfect time to test it out last night! 16 for the low. Wind kicked up replicating a nice mountain like environment. 22 now.
    24 points
  32. 24 points
  33. Picked up about 0.5-0.75” of snow with the temperature down to 28F. I would love to see some more, but everything is white and pretty so I can’t complain. Went for a stroll around the neighborhood while it was still snowing.
    24 points
  34. There was a discussion earlier of how this year was the "Year without a Fall" in the PNW as a result of the September/October torch and the November freeze. I was interested in if there was a way to actually quantify this for some cities in Western Washington (I'm too lazy to do Oregon, but the data and analysis is quite simple to find/complete if you're interested). I first wondered if I could look at monthly averages. If you have a steep drop off from September to October or October to November in average temperatures then it may suggest you "skipped fall." The problem with such coarse analysis is what happens if the pattern change happens midway through the month? Then October ends up average even if the first half of the month was significantly above average and the second half was significantly below. Instead I decided to look at individual highs for each day during the meteorological fall (September 1 to November 30) and compare them to average values. Clearly meteorological fall is a better measure than astronomical fall because by December 21st most of the area has already bottomed out for high temperatures. I only looked at high temperatures because as discussed on here before, the average person probably doesn't pay that much attention to the low for the day. I could have also looked at precipitation, but that would have made the analysis more difficult and I'm not sure how you would distinguish summer precipitation from fall precipitation from winter precipitation. For Seattle (SEA), Bellingham (BLI), and Olympia (OLM) I looked at how many days each station had where the high temperature was outside the bounds of the average high temperature between September 1st and November 30th. For example, the average high at SEA on September 1st is 75F and the average high at SEA on November 30th is 49F. So I counted up how many days in each year of record the high was 75F or above (I decided to include the boundary values) and how many days the high was below 50F. I've included the top 10 years for each city below. Seattle In the period of record, autumn 2022 was the least "fall-like" on record. Only 56% of the days (total of 40 out of 91) featured a high between 50F and 75F. The next closest year was 1994 with 59% of days being "fall-like." In case you're wondering, 2016 and 1954 were the most "fall-like" autumns in Seattle with 91% and 92% (respectively) of the high temperatures falling within the normal range. Bellingham Bellingham is cooler than Seattle by September 1st with an average high of 71F, and because of that the warm Sept/Oct were even more anomalous. 1/3 of the season featured highs warmer than the autumn maximum and almost 50% of all the days were outside of the 49-70 range. This was significantly more outlier days than any other year (1975 featured 62% of "fall-like" days) while 2018 was the most "fall-like" with 91% of days falling within the normal range. Olympia Olympia starts September with an average high of 76F and ends November with an average high of 47F. Once again, 2022 was the least "fall-like" by a wide margin with 40 days (56%) which fell outside of the normal bounds. 1994 was next closest with 64% of abnormally warm or cool days. The most "fall-like" year for Olympia was 1954 (same as Seattle) when a full 95% of autumn days had highs that were within the normal range.
    24 points
  35. 24 points
  36. I was interested in how anomalous yesterday's 88F was at SEA. Based on my analysis, it may have been the most anomalous record high temperature ever recorded at SEA, even more rare than the 108F in June 2021! I share my analysis/statistical reasoning below the graph. Sorry if it get's a little confusing when I start talking about "average record highs." I took every record high temperature on the books at SEA and plotted them on this graph based on how many degrees they were above average. For example, the average temperature at SEA on June 28th is 74F which is how we get the dot that's 34 degrees above average marked in the center of the graph from our 108F day. There's clearly a seasonal component in our record high temperatures. In the winter there's not a ton of variability. On January 8th the record high is 54F, which is only 7 degrees above the average high of 47F. I decided to take this seasonality into account by averaging the difference between the record high and the average high for each month. So in January a record high is normally only about 11 degrees warmer than the average temperature for that date (record highs in the 50s while average highs in the 40s) while in June a record high is 21 degrees above the average temperature for that date (records in the 90s while average highs in the 70s). I then took the standard deviation of the records for each month. June has the greatest variability in record highs (the standard deviation is 4.65 degrees) while February has the lowest variability in record highs (standard deviation 2.3 degrees). Of course a big contributor to the large standard deviation is June's highs are the three 100+ records from 2021, but it's hard to pick and choose data so we'll ignore that. If you've studied statistics you'll know that you can use standard deviation to build a confidence interval for normalized distributions,. There's more that goes into this, but basically we can say that for normal distributions we'd expect 95% of the data to fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Anything that is greater than 2 standard deviations away from the average (depending on the context) is considered an outlier. On the graph I've highlighted all the values that were at least 2 standard deviations above the average record high for that month. Yesterday's 88F at SEA was not only 28F above average, but was 3.3 standard deviations above the average record high for October (which is usually about 14 degrees above average). Meanwhile, last year's 108F was only 2.7 standard deviations above the average record high for June. So basically yesterday's 88F was less statistically likely for mid October than 108F was for late June. Obviously the arbitrary month cutoff is not perfect. Perhaps it would be better if I did a rolling average of 20 or 30 days centered on each date, but I thought it was at least an interesting idea to consider. And with only 30 days in a month, using standard deviation is not the best measure of abnormality (it probably works better for a larger sample size), but it's easier to compute and understand than other methods.
    24 points
  37. We missed the brunt if the huge storm here as expected but still 14 new since Monday. The drive lastnight was insane.
    24 points
  38. 24 points
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