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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/24/22 in all areas
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Neutral winters have been almost as bad for our rainy seasons in Southern California as La Ninas, historically. Since 1949-50, rainy seasons in Downtown Los Angeles have followed the following patterns during respective El Nino/La Nina/Neutral water years (up through the 2020-21 season): El Nino years: 58% above-average / 42% below-average La Nina years: 19% above-average / 81% below-average Neutral years: 25% above-average / 75% below-average Out of the Top 10 Driest Rainy Seasons in Downtown L.A. since 1949-50 (not using 1877-1949 rainy season records due to lack of reliable information about ENSO records prior to 1950), 2 of the driest seasons occurred during El Nino winters, 4 of them during La Nina winters, and 4 of them during Neutral winters: #1) 2006-2007 | 3.21" | El Nino #2) 2001-2002 | 4.42" | Neutral #3) 2017-2018 | 4.79" | La Nina #4) 1960-1961 | 4.85" | Neutral #5) 1958-1959 | 5.58" | El Nino #6) 2020-2021 | 5.82" | La Nina #7) 2012-2013 | 5.85" | Neutral #8) 2013-2014 | 6.08" | Neutral #9) 1971-1972 | 7.17" | La Nina #10) 1975-1976 | 7.22" | La Nina In contrast, the top 10 wettest rain seasons in Downtown L.A. (since 1949) follow a more consistent trend: #1) 2004-2005 | 37.25" | El Nino #2) 1977-1978 | 33.44" | El Nino #3) 1982-1983 | 31.25" | El Nino #4) 1997-1998 | 31.01" | El Nino #5) 1968-1969 | 27.47" | El Nino #6) 1992-1993 | 27.36" | Neutral #7) 1979-1980 | 26.98" | El Nino #8) 1951-1952 | 26.21" | El Nino #9) 1994-1995 | 24.35" | El Nino #10) 1966-1967 | 22.00" | Neutral4 points
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And that pattern is way less likely to occur starting around this point in the year. The baroclinic gradient relationship simply isn't the same in late spring and summer. When there is strong May-August ridging over CA it generally is never going to be firehosey in western WA. Sometimes I think you may be confusing King County's latitude with Juneau's. Obviously you can benefit a little from ULLs dipping further south and shifting the best instability and precip dynamics a bit, but a warm season pattern like that (see 1993) is still going to produce opportunities for western WA to be wet.4 points
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Many places in the green there are actually still in drought. Including parts of Eastern WA, OR, ID, and MT. The world is bigger than Rattlesnake Ridge4 points
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Jim Flowers talking about a cool May, June, July with average precipitation or possibly above in this region of the Central Plains. Facebook Video talking about La Nina and how it is intensifying. Can’t get it to post for some reason.4 points
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The wild swings of the Great Plains will be in full effect this coming week as Summer returns in earnest. Meanwhile, those near the GL's and parts of the MW are stuck in a blocking pattern as cold HP that originated way up in the Arctic regions of Canada (NW Territories/Yellowknife) makes its way down into the Lower 48. If you look closely, there is a piece of the Polar Vortex just to the E of the HP that sits and spins for days just north of Hudson Bay near Baffin Bay. I'm beginning to wonder if this pattern is trying to set up for the duration of this coming summer. The month of May will be interesting to see where the blocks set up and where the PV lobe wanders. I gotta funny feeling that parts of N/NE Canada may be experiencing an unusually cold summer. Just a wild guess based on trends and the result of all the high lat blocking. In any event, wrt the blocking and the anticipated wave train, nature will turn on the faucets once again for the central CONUS. Gosh, it's going to be pretty darn wet across the ag belt region. Both GEFS/EPS are pretty much on the same page but the GEFS point towards a bit more moisture for NE. Put money on the GEFS??? Up to this point in the season, I haven't been more confident that our peeps in NE could finally break the seal.4 points
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He does highlight a good point in that basing a drought monitor solely on precipitation departures, even based on percentages of normal, is a terrible idea, particularly so in desert regions. It results in deserts being burdened with massive, inordinate anomalies in either direction, despite wet season precip and soil moisture anomalies staying within reasonable, common limits of normal. Out near Yakima and the lower basin very few years would qualify for a genuine 'drought' year, where rainfall and snowfall are actually worryingly low. But even then the native sagebrush is well equipped to handle such drought. To cause serious lasting ecological damage it would take a biblical, never before seen drought of the ages here, alongside vastly increased temperatures so as to nuke both snowpack and soil moisture. Something like 2015 on steroids, for 3-5 years on end. An actual threat is wildfire damage and the influx of European drygrass choking out shrub-steppe ecosystems. Even during the wettest years, wildfires are still a major concern during the vast majority of the year, and drygrass would probably spread at even faster rates. As global warming progresses and accelerates, we stand to see an ever increasing chance of such biblical droughts toward the end of the century. But by then we will have already probably seen much more visible damage west of the Cascade crest. Until then things are relatively fine Portland north.3 points
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Wow, I'm embarrassed to admit I didn't realize it got so warm out today. I was inside trying to finish doing some upgrades to my 3D printer. We had the windows open, so I at least got some fresh air. Looks like we hit 68 up here.3 points
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When OR is wet it's generally dry in western WA? That definitely is false. Even with northern CA that isn't true, most of their wettest periods tend to still be rainy and active up here. Particularly during spring/summer where precip anomalies are more tied in with longwave troughing and synoptic rainmakers tend to be fewer and further between anyways. The issue in recent springs and summers is that there has been incessant ridging and very little longwave troughing along the West Coast, which has left the entire region dry.3 points
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We’ve had a good amount of sun here, along with the rain I expect this time of year. And some pretty good active weather. Do we grade months here? I give it a B+.3 points
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I'd even dare to say South/Eastern Oregon is doing better than what the drought monitor gives. That built up snowpack is gonna pay huge dividends. If this April didn't play out the way it it, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that this fire season was gonna be incredibly bad.2 points
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Hilarious that there was a drought argument earlier. I guess Cliff really does read this forum. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-large-portion-of-washington-state-in.html2 points
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Well, we got the tail end of this thing. I’m glad Oklahoma got their rain but I hope we get our turn next. There were some awesome low clouds. The low level racing N to S and the layer above moving SW to NE. Beautiful shades of light gray below to dark aloft. But more rain would be welcomed.2 points
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I don't think anyone is pulling for heat. Average temperatures and precipitation would be just fine. Let's start the growing season.2 points
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You guys really overthink this. As if I secretly want heat misers to be miserable 24/7 like some sadistic freak. Well, now that think about it…2 points
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I’d give this month a B+ too. Probably would’ve been an A had @Jginmartiniand @SouthHillFrosty hadn’t hogged up all the accumulating snow on 4/14 before it made it here. Has had almost every type of weather this month…including some nice days like today.2 points
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Except it's 4 or 5 degrees colder than typical April. I would have preferred a normal April.2 points
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Warming up! Offshore flow is bringing 70s+ down to the coast. Cherish it, for the Gloom Season lies just ahead.2 points
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La Nina La Nina you're not welcome here Please come back some other year2 points
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77F was our high for DTW yesterday. Didn't "feel" an 80F happening after the clouds lingered from the overnight flooding rains and my hunch was correct. Full on shorts and golf shirt day and exiting the local Target with my cart of "stuff" felt zero chill in the SW breeze. THAT was a long time coming! Worms got flooded out in classic fashion and were everywhere in the morning. You had to work not to have mushed worm on your shoe soles. Not sure if that's a phenomenon elsewhere, or unique to SMI but the robins were in surely feast mode. Their patience enduring the late snows finally rewarded.2 points
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No Tx wind FINALLY laid down. Calm until mid afternoon. heavy rain expected between 3pm and dawn. That’s fine. We need it. Crops, ranchers, and fire threats will all get relief. Overcast 70*. DP 64 Humidity 78%2 points
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That Tornado-Warned Supercell went right OVER Oklahoma City, it cleared me to the north. But then ANOTHER Supercell had hook at Norman & it was heading towards me, but like it always does, it occluded to the north at the last minute. Nothing fell until a 3rd Supercell arrived with a LOT of Rain and Lightning.2 points
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https://komonews.com/news/local/woman-rescued-after-falling-in-toilet-trying-to-get-phone Pretty sure I would write the phone off, go get a new one.2 points
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Low 80s here this afternoon, but around 90°F down in central VA where there’s less onshore flow. Some convection firing in the higher elevations. Will have to see if it can drift off the terrain east of the BR.1 point
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