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Nice improvement on the 0z EPS. This is the change from the 12z.

Wow... Cougs demonstrate how to 'Coug it'. Give up 22 points in last 3 minutes and 30 seconds to lose to Ducks.

Put me in weather jail but I have been enjoying the warm dry weather lately

The 06z gets fall started

My Dad is in the motherland of Poland visiting family and he’s going hiking in the southern Tatra’s mountains. There is a wonderful resort town called Zakopane that is a very popular ski town and summertime mountain climbing and hiking destination. The town is known for its old school wooden chalets. It’s a gorgeous part of the country as the beauty of the mountain ranges tower into the sky. The weather in Eastern Europe has been unusually chilly and there is already a lot of snow on the peaks as you can see in the picture below. I’ll post more pics as I receive them.

MBG!

It's very exciting to see the start of a new weather pattern and hopefully it will be one that doesn't keep most of in drought or on the verge of drought. A little early to draw any conclusions about this storm but a potentially wet storm in a blocked up pattern is a great way to start Oct!

I like the latest trends out here as there is one last hoorah for the official Monsoon season. Some models are spitting out some decent moisture for the valley starting next Tue through the rest of the month. Come on baby...I'm hoping PHX can record some more precip to break past normal for the season. Meantime, Tropical Storm Ian has formed and I'm worried for my friends down in FL. This blocking GL's HP is going to do some dirty work. Not only are models increasingly showing colder temps around the GL's region for a longer period mid next week but that Big Block up Over The Top may stall out the storm over or near FL. So much to digest over the next few days. Should be fun tracking this potential major threat. LR signals showing up in the GEFS/EPS that the BSR rule may come into fruition during the 1st week of OCT....my early call of a storm system tracking into the N Rockies around the 3rd-5th is showing up. Should be an interesting start to the new LRC.

The last two control runs on the GFS ensemble have been pretty crazy.

Wow! Nest timelapse of fire in the sky https://video.nest.com/clip/73f0dbf47148491b8b22c1020fe151a4.mp4 FullSizeRender.MOV

I personally do NOT think you’re an idiot, Jim but I most certainly DO think you lose grip on reality on occasion. It’s one of your most endearing qualities! Reality bites!

Prince Edward Island is likely getting the worst of the storm now. The confederation bridge is now gusting to 112mph. Sounds like a ton of trees are coming down across the island

A brave Canadian!

Yeah...they have very interesting volcanic features there.

Apparently 4 people, 3 Parks Canada staff and 1 researcher stayed behind and are on the island with all the horses. Looks like the wild horses have built up good genetics over the centuries they have been on the island and have been through this before so they know what to do and take care of each other. They will be able to seek shelter in the lee of the taller sand dunes. Hoping everyone on the island survives.

Should be in the banter, but what an embarrassing collapse by WSU.

I love the weather today, blue sky and 75 here. Today for me is a perfect day of weather.

Just sent a PM to the mods requesting you either be put on mod preview or a 1 month ban.

When Tim wants to make a point he just doesn’t let up does he?

Fiona set a Canadian record for lowest pressure on land. 931.6mb at Hart Island.

It's a beautiful, cool and foggy morning here with a temp of 52. Temps are expected to rise over 30 degrees today as some warm air pushes in. Tomorrow it's back to great Fall weather with highs back in the low to mid 70s.

Green Gables is gonna get wrecked.

From another camera different angle https://video.nest.com/clip/c0adc22a773f44e287131fb35633e655.mp4

75 here... 73 at SEA. Gorgeous day.

I picture him getting the biggest sh*t-eating grin when he knows a lot of us are desperately hoping for a pattern change and he can post a ridgy map.

Just for the record. Trough (-PNA) last weekend.

Has anyone heard how the horses and 4 people on Sable Island fared last night?

Pretty sure its about you intent on jinxing any change.

@Nikoand @westMJim looks like a chilly cold rain for you guys this last week of September. Florida is going to get hit hard, hopefully everyone stays safe.

Love those type of mornings and the smells of the fresh air and moisture...out in the country where you are it is something I miss seeing.

IMO central Oregon is much more interesting. Central Washington is cool but it’s just amazing what you can see along Highway 97…some incredible geological works of art.

I hope they tried to do something to help the horses that are there. Could be awful for them.

Tuesday 97f 4pm Friday 51f 4pm Quite a shock honestly for mid afternoon.

A bit of a personal post on my end. This was a few years in the making but had to postponed several times due to the passing of my mom during Covid and obviously the continuation of Covid until we are safe to travel. And also why I made this trip back to the home country for the first time in 20 years. This was taken at Central Highlands of Vietnam in Da Lat early morning. The fog and mists was just like home.

Very possible. That winter had so many good events pretty much everywhere got hit at least once...probably twice. The Feb 1956 event was very impressive up here.

Tried again and it worked. Awesome video!

And just a little more than 2 months away! ❄ Hopefully the first sign of the longer range models picking up on Alaskan blocking for early winter.

I would assume it was a personal station and they took it with them while moving? There is a family of that name is SW per Google search.

Given how many strong nor'easters they have weathered... I have to imagine they know how to handle storms.

Big changes on the ensembles last night. The 0z EPS, 0z GEFS, and 6z GEFS are all much more bullish for some action and -PNA for week 2.

I am way more excited to watch the Sunday Night Football matchup over the Hawks/Falcons game. Go 9ers! (Can’t believe I just said that)

Mowed the yard this morning. Grass is as green and thick as you might expect in early June. Not seeing really any signs of color change in trees or vegetation. Already September 24, will probably be a late leaf change this year.

At this point, enough runs of enough models are saying we should have a pattern change at about the same time as the month rolls over that I will be surprised if we don’t. (Plus, climo says we are due for one.)

The worst is yet to come unfortunately.

Week two continues to look a lot troughier for us on this GFS run.

Halifax, Canada braces for Fiona. Hurricane conditions expected there. Crazy!

Nice evening. Was a nice early afternoon in Central Oregon too.

96 this afternoon. Cumulonimbus over the mountains east of here, reminding me of the near-daily monsoonal moisture during July-August.

Windy