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Got a new job at the Fred meyer distribution center today in the deli area…so I’ll be getting my fair share of cold in if this winter busts. Super excited to move onto a better job. It’s low elevation in the swamp though

Oh that looks pretty bad! Haven’t watered since the end of July here and it looks like this as of last night! We’ve of course had over 4” of rain since Aug 1st though. Irrigation is getting blown out tomorrow in fact.

IMO, the summer climate has shifted so much in the PNW that summer time analogs are pretty much useless to predict winter weather.

Working from the park office today.

Can't ask for much better than this. I went down to 46 this morning.

Went out in the deck around 2:45am and snapped this pic of Jupiter…it’s pretty neat to see how big and bright it is in the sky…

Have a good one all….will check back when I can but my internet hour is up. Sun is setting as well ….into the darkness I go

Lol! Bosnia Promised my younger brother I would do a pilgrimage here. Andrew may know some of the going ons over here….but it’s regarding visions of Mary in this village by a bunch of kids who are now older. We’re actually staying at one of the places the visionary help run and she will probably be serving us. New adventure for me….bring it on! Going to be fun and first time in Europe.

Yeah dry Sept/Oct are not all that uncommon for the region. The last few years have been wet which helped drown the flames both literally and figuratively on here. This year we’re of course not seeing that after yet another torchy summer which seems to have everyone on edge!

My original plan was to enjoy a lovely day at the lake for my day off…That changed when I decided to put the Starlink up, took way longer than I had anticipated but still snuck over to the lake around 4pm for a few hours. Was lovely! Oh and I moved from 1997 internet to 2022 internet! Wow it’s fast!!

Yes, in the winter. Again we generally want to see that stronger forcing at times in the fall as an early indicator of cold air movement up north. Truly wall to wall amplified cold seasons are incredibly rare anyways. Maybe 1976-77 and a handful of others in the last century. If we haven't seen a strong jet or signs of consolidated patterns by late November then the chances are high that we will see one arise in mid-winter and quite literally have it rain on our parades. And right now Western Canada is still being flooded with mild air anyways and there's no jet to boot. Just a complete lack of any meaningful cold anomalies across the entire continent this month once again. Even AK has been quite mild again. Just have to reiterate that there just really aren't many favorable signs at the moment.

She will learn. She’s five, but she fell in love with snow with the Christmas snow and April snow last year.

Looking good!

Yeah, that sucks. Mostly just making the point that there’s more to consider than an extra inch or two of sloppy snow every year.

We had some fun while boating on Lake Tapps on Sunday and went to a couple open houses... just pulled boat up to their docks and walked up. There are some beautiful homes on that lake and its way more affordable than Lake Sammamish and Lake Washington. We were contemplating what it would be like to live in Bonney Lake on the water.

The group I’m going with will do some side trips….Mostar really does look cool. So hope to explore a little. Will be back though…this trip just opens the door for me

I can't believe your first time to Europe is to derpy Međugorje - I say this as a half-Bosnian & not a comment on religion - I hope you'll have time to visit Mostar, Sarajevo, or the Croatian coast as well. Beautiful country there!

Funny you mention flying as I just boarded and heading overseas. Bought and hour of internet to get the latest on the Hurricane as I have a family on the east coast of Florida. checking here for any info. Will scroll through after this post. Anyhow, very cool on the update to the sim!!! Man, I wish I was still in doing the thing but lately I’m just on the go in the outside world. Someday I may return flight sim as it is just a cool realistic program and so immersive. Still would love to build a cockpit !!! Perhaps when I age. Thanks for the update Wayne

I built them! We had some leftover reclaimed wood so we put it to good use!

If wasps nest are low they say it means a mild and calm winter, and if wasps nest are high it means and cooler and rough winter

"Trends are your Friends"....so they say...well, it appears that the GEFS are following the EPS trends as we approach the start of the new LRC pattern in OCT...no longer is the trough hugging NW NAMER and the Ridge is firing up (-EPO) signal shining bright. The LR clues from over a week ago are coming together. Now, let's see if there is a storm system that can develop around the 10/6 period....looking out farther, using the BSR as guidance, I am expecting more of the same as we see troughs entering the west coast/PAC NW into the middle part of OCT. The storm below tracking in a SW/NE fashion could be an interesting "cutter" during the 10/17-10/21 period and this may develop into a Major trough over the central SUB. I got my eye on an active period during the middle part of OCT.

I began riding one when I was about 6yrs old. My uncle had two Kawasaki stand ups from the late 1970’s that I rode (back when nobody cared about boating laws and the lakes were a free for all lol) Now I really enjoy my sit down comfy rides!

I never really understood why so many people talk about analogs to predict what's going to happen 3 months from now. You can correlate any 2 weather events/patterns if you look hard enough.

Like Jim pointed out, the more unusual aspect is the already historically dry astronomical summer period. Throwing an additional near bone dry 6 weeks on top of that would put this in even more rarified air.

Yes, in the winter. Falls that are more or less completely devoid of any jet stream activity tend to offset that in DJF. Even favorable, thoroughly blocky winters like 2013-14 and 1978-79 both had very wet Septembers in the region with strong early fall jet activity. Nothing remotely similar this year.

Told my daughter “weather was moving in.” She asked if It might snow tomorrow... not yet little one, not yet.

Very nice. Your photo looks like a department of tourism ad for Montana. Beautiful.

Norway last night

Unbelievable Northern Lights last night in central Minnesota!

It is a very cool day today. Currently at 55F under mostly cloudy skies.

Record highs in BC yesterday Weather summary for British Columbia issued by Environment Canada at 2:56 a.m. PDT Tuesday 27 September 2022. Discussion. A ridge of high pressure over the province led to clear skies and unseasonably warm conditions. The following areas will have set a daily maximum temperature record on September 26, 2022 (Updated at 2:55 AM PDT September 27, 2022): Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) Preliminary new record of 29.3 Old record of 27.2 set in 1976 Records in this area have been kept since 1944 Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) Preliminary new record of 21.2 Old record of 20.0 set in 2014 Records in this area have been kept since 1977 Blue River Area (Blue River CS) Preliminary new record of 23.9 Old record of 23.3 set in 1976 Records in this area have been kept since 1946 Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) Preliminary new record of 25.0 Old record of 24.7 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1949 Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) Preliminary new record of 23.0 Old record of 22.0 set in 2003 Records in this area have been kept since 1974 Dawson Creek Area (Dawson Creek A) Preliminary new record of 24.9 Old record of 24.5 set in 1995 Records in this area have been kept since 1926 Gibsons Area (Sechelt Aut) Preliminary new record of 26.3 Old record of 23.3 set in 1949 Records in this area have been kept since 1949 Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 22.9 Old record of 21.9 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1971 Malahat Area (Malahat) Preliminary new record of 25.8 Old record of 24.0 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1986 Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) Preliminary new record of 29.3 Old record of 27.5 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1874 Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) Preliminary new record of 29.5 Old record of 27.8 set in 1918 Records in this area have been kept since 1900 Powell River Area (Powell River) Preliminary new record of 25.9 Old record of 25.0 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1924 Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 24.2 Old record of 23.9 set in 1927 Records in this area have been kept since 1912 Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) Preliminary new record of 27.3 Old record of 26.5 set in 2003 Records in this area have been kept since 1959 Richmond Area (Vancouver Sea Island Ccg) Preliminary new record of 22.6 Old record of 22.4 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1896 Sandspit Area (Sandspit Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 20.2 Old record of 19.3 set in 1996 Records in this area have been kept since 1945 Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) Preliminary new record of 26.3 Old record of 23.0 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1956 Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) Preliminary new record of 29.9 Old record of 26.5 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1960 Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) Preliminary new record of 28.0 Old record of 27.0 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1930 West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Aut) Preliminary new record of 26.2 Old record of 25.0 set in 1991 Records in this area have been kept since 1976

Looks like ECMWF is already about 20 mb too high (10 am forecast is 976 mb while 11 a.m. update has it at 955 mb) so I wonder if that strength could affect the track.

Made it down to 38 this morning at the MN home. Coldest it's been in a long time. Expecting widespread frost tonight. I have to head down to the IA home today for a couple days. Might even get some frost down there tonight.

Fortunately, it appears that would be slightly outside of the 100 year 24 hour maximum expected precipitation for Puget Sound. Of course, October 20, 2003 significantly exceeded the expected one in a hundred year value at SEA (5.02") which I find hard to believe, but I guess it makes sense since it's only happened once in the last century. On the other hand, if close to 40" does fall with Ian in Florida it should be right up there with what is meteorologically possible.

Well a strong jet would flood western Canada with mild air so I’m not sure that’d bode well either.

Things are pretty similar to 1975 if we're looking at muIti year Niña. With that said, I think too much stock is put into "multi" year anything ENSO. This fall is behaving very similarly to 1988, 2000, 2017, etc

In the end nature always does its own thing in our ever changing climate and I think that's what frustrates people.

You guys need it more than us, but we need some too.

I lived in Maple Valley (the King County version of Bonney Lake) for 11 years and I would choose the North End of Tacoma in a heartbeat.

Where’s the rain? Through the 26th, we’re another inch below average for the month with ~1.5” out of normal 2.5”. Average temps are 50/74 today and cool to 47/71 by the end of the 7 day period. Right now it’s only the lows that are driving the below normal averages until the end of the week. Tonight Clear, with a low around 43. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 68. East southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 45. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 72. South southeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53. South southeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 79. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Nice day. Best weather in the nation.

feels like i've moved back to Santa Cruz. Sept/Oct were often the warmest months of the year there due to offshore flow

The degree of ridging/split flow is impressive for a niña of this intensity, as modeled. Very reminiscent of 1988, though even that year had a better established northern jet.

I heard the game is moving to Martha’s Vineyard.

Never ridden on the sit on top, but I did get to ride one of the standup models. My godmother had a 3-5 acre lake in her front yard (her property was about 30-40 acres), and her son brought his jet skis out one weekend when I was about 8 or 9. Fortunately (for me) it was his nephew and not me that figured out that when you cut power on those you lose steering. We were racing across the lake, and there was a dock in the middle. When he realized he was headed for it, he cut power and turned the handlebars. Plowed right into it. Filleted his leg open pretty good and destroyed the jet ski. That lesson came in very handy many years later when I worked Marine Patrol in Oregon running jet boats up and down the Willamette. On the weather side of things, got down to 51 last night, and lots of mid-level smoke in the air this morning.

00z Euro has 160mph gusts just offshore upon approach.

We’ve lost Jim. Things are looking up for a downturn.