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This sunrise!

Traversed White Pass for the first time in I don’t know how long today. 17 with freezing fogg at the summit but we broke out into this… Rainier looking good and ready for some stratospheric warming a few miles up.

Whatever. It's consistently damp, not really torching. Some transient wind events coming through. The mountains across the west are doing great on snowpack and are actively receiving more, the bulk of which is headed to regions of the west most harshly impacted by drought this last decade. Let this pattern do its thang. The goodies will come again this winter.

only two weeks until we start seeing this show up on the regular GFS!

Such a peaceful sky this morning.

I'm sure the media is going to jump all over this CA event and say it's unprecedented and due to man caused climate change. I have one number that says otherwise. 1862. Probably some others as well.

Heavy combination of every type of frozen precipitation you can think of. Very nasty. County Sheriff reporting accidents. Why anyone is out is a mystery with all the warnings issued about no travel advised. When this switches to snow will be important to snowfall amounts.

First positive signs for a dropping PNA (GFS) in the extended that I have seen in a while. Oh and I got a little drone for Christmas, those things have quite a learning curve to fly, luckily when I hit the cedar tree it bounced all the way down the branches instead of getting Stuck way up there.

I may have underestimated in my mind the pure extent of rainfall incoming for the southwestern US. Some insane numbers popping up. They've asked for a drought buster, well here it comes..

Goofus Sr. raising the stakes

Can't ever recall all of CA getting hit like this. The map is only 90 hours worth.

I read it further, basically they are saying if cold air moves in faster we get more snow than ice. I’m hoping that happens. Currently sitting at 32.0 and .20” of rain. I’ll take the precip

Read something the other day that said they would need an excess of a years worth of extra precip to make up the amount of the drought. And then they would need to have average precip for the year to not fall back in the hole. Which is crazy to think about!

45/32 todays…46/33 yesterday. Amazing sunrise this morning. Legit no filter it was that vibrant.

Yes, extremes happened before human-caused climate change. But global warming still makes precipitation extremes more likely. The two are not mutually exclusive.

@Iceresistance, Thanks for the shoutout on the warm sector over here. Looking like a tense night for me. Tornadic storm in Sequoyah County now.

I think we all need some eye candy right now!

250 inches of snow in places

Hard to believe but this storm has produced a tornado watch only three counties south of me...on Jan 2 no less.

Looks like a nino-esque hodgepodge until further notice to me.

Even the Euro is showing some good amounts down there.

Even though that would cause some serious flooding they can kiss the drought’s a** goodbye if that verified!

Wow. Snow totals are over 200in

Preview of @hawkstwelves place come Wed morning

6z Goofus was interesting.

This storm is really getting blocked up and not really cutting like the models were showing days ago. It appears the closed H5 ULL will be tracking very slowly due West/East across IA into IN/OH by Thu. I still expect to see some surprises and wherever that SLP pivots and spins will dump snow just to the NW. 0z EPS...the Hudson Bay Ridge has really placed itself perfectly over the top of this storm...

According to ACIS, which has admittedly garbage snowfall records for Eugene, it hasn't snowed here on Jan 20th since 1952 and only twice since 1893. We should change that. To me this is much worse than the terrible streak of no white Christmases. And I'm awake for no particular reason and grumpy.

Weather doesn’t seem that important right now after watching the injury and collapse of Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.

Damar Hamlin of the Bills is now in critical condition. Very terrifying situation. I don’t think a player has ever had the worst happen in the 102+ year history of this league.

Very cool that Bastardi posted this today as it should provide some insight to your post. Last Bite of the Warm Dog this winter? Ever wonder why the Polar Vortex came and went in 2014. It came thru during the null phase of the MJO and then look where the MJO went. We played the Super Bowl in NYC that year during a window of warmth. There was widespread warmth between the 10th and 20th but then the back and forth turned to the cold Dog and that was that. The Feb rotation did not get as strong into that dreaded phase 6 so the large scale responses overcame You have to have seen this a kjillion times. So here is kajillion and one The MJO responses to various vv patterns. It was the eastern hemisphere strong warm stimulus vs the western hemisphere's cold. Much of the time the two face offf and one is in the null phase. The last 80 days of the MJO reveal the preseason diagnosis was a good one remember in the fall. phase 7 is a cold phase. so we see rotations to set up the cold but then a collapse and warm respsonse But this was based on the Indian ocean looking like this that loves sinking in the west convection in the east. But it is almost like the dryness of the west and rain in the east may have aided the flip. It built the road it road to its death and so this has to at least weaken the dog in the eastern hemisphere so not rotations may be much less into that phase And the Euro Is certainly responding ots interesting how it got chopped down in 7/7 this time But there is more. Look at hte euro at. 360 I spy with my little eye Cahirs connection anf the CFSv2 ( if its going to get cold it sees it has the king kong cold later in the month into Feb. It also sees alot of snow on the ground in the northeast. add 5 degrees, still impressive.

Extreme torching is back for this Friday on the 12Z ECMWF.

12Z EPS was really wet for CA over the next 15 days... and a little drier than normal up here.

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled. How could it be totally up in the air now?

I have been bumped up again! Now calling for 7-10". They've also pushed the timing way back again....now 2am Tue to 6pm Wed. Also currently light snow already with a dusting.

I seen that! It’s about to get crazy for us! Am I reading that right ice then 4-8” of snow???

Nothing beats a cold January rain . Guess we should be thankful for the moisture though.

My warning went from 4-8 from this morning's update to 5-9 inches with the latest update.

-6 at Burns this morning.

00Z ECMWF showed this would be the coldest morning... and it did dip down to 30 briefly at SEA as it shows. It also shows warmer than normal weather ahead.

The warm sector of this storm could have a violent side as a warm front will lift into eastern Oklahoma and a dry line will form in eastern Texas. A rough night ahead for the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley as this storm will produce yet another severe weather outbreak for this region. @Andie and @Iceresistance will be close to the initiation zone and @Black Holeand @OKwx2k4 will need to have an eye to the sky this evening. I would expect an up grade in advisory for the Ark-La-Tex region to a moderate risk.

I think my Jan 18 to Jan 25 call is looking really good right now.

Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow.

Incredible clouds down here tonight. Nasty weather rolled through earlier and gave way to this!

I’ve been dealing with a particularly severe bout of seasonal depression so not motivated to post. Also been traveling and busy in general. Am currently in FL.

East-Asia/Siberia High descent on the LR EPS. Signal growing stronger too. Winter’s gonna come roaring back 2nd half of Jan, following our multiweek thaw.