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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/20/23 in all areas
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So I was talking to my boss about where he gets his weather info and I told him about my meteorological hobby. Our job is very influenced by the weather being a storm water filtration company. He wants me to give him weather forecasts for our sites as part of my job 2 times a week. I’m thinking I want to get a subscription to pivotal or weatherbell…which one would you guys recommend?13 points
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Dramatic improvement with the 12z ECMWF with the ridge merger, amplification of the block, did away with that nagging cut-off low quickly, and was not too far from moving into an arctic pattern in 7-9 days. The GFS Op is still lost, tragically so. GEFS, CMCE, EPS all fairly similar with handling of the block and its axis. Cautiously optimistic. 00z GFS in 4 hours 28 minutes 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 38 minutes10 points
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GEM blasts the region with arctic air and even the Euro brings cold air into the Columbia basin and a chilly easy wind
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Congrats on the new job! I've been interviewing for several new work opportunities. Might be headed to SE Alaska this spring for the summer!10 points
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One more point for @TacomaWx: perhaps the biggest defect of professional and official forecasts is that they contain no estimate of forecast confidence. A forecast based on models that are all trending one way reads just like one when the models disagree with each other and flip-flop from run to run. Including something about one's confidence in a forecast is an easy way to improve on official forecasts.9 points
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9 points
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Day 10+ aside, the control run should never really be used for snowfall amounts (kind of wished they excluded that parameter). It has a resolution of 18km so most of what you are seeing is terrain bleed. It’s really just another member of 51 other members that is run four times everyday. At this range, it’s much more wise to hang your snow hopes on what the ensemble means are showing.9 points
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Fully remote is ideal! My wife is fully remote which makes the SE AK idea a little more doable for the summer. Besides the scenery, avoiding the summer heat is honestly the big draw. I guess doing runs up and down to the Mendenhall Glacier will be cool too.8 points
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This feels like 10+ runs in a row that GFS Op diverges from the mean right around the 28th and is warmer than just about every ensemble member every run
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Not hard to imagine the pattern shown on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 crashing hard immediately afterwards.8 points
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Had about an inch of snow here overnight which was nice to freshen things up. Still about 15" on the ground and a low of 14 here this morning.8 points
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Very strong signal on this EPS run.8 points
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Nice sunset today
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Pretty blue hour/dusk. Decided to wash my car . . . but I'm pretty sure it will all freeze over. Oh well, it was brisk and the car looks shiny.
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ya...yesterdays 12z sort of looks like what GEM and Euro are trying to show
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Little colder on GEFS.7 points
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This one looks beautiful on the plateau here in the Ozarks. I'm getting my hopes up.. Blizzard conditions is starting to look interesting.7 points
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Lol I told him he actually didn’t need to pay me off the bat just to see how accurate I am to start off but he insisted that I get paid for it. I didn’t even suggest getting paid for it at all just to give them the info and he said he would pay me to do it so he doesn’t have to spend time looking for himself.7 points
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I would take 2018 WAY over 2014…And the pics explain why! But it’s coming…And it’s going to blow 2014, 2018, 19, 21, 22 away!!
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Low of 30! Been a long time since it has been that cold! The Fuzzy looks better! Oh and my section of grass that cooks in the summer is now looking better! Minus the moles.
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Everything looks great for a top tier blast at this point. Honestly we couldn't ask for a better signal at this range when looking at all the ensembles. VERY important not to get hung up on a couple gfs runs that go off the rails on either side of the possible outcome.7 points
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Lol of course it was. I really don't see the value of the control run as it never seem to be accurate or utilized by mets, NWS or CPC.7 points
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Love to see it
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Taking a weekend trip in the town of Roslyn just west of Cle Elum. Expecting a pretty good snowstorm tomorrow, should be a super pretty wintery scene. Snow on the ground here from snow earlier in the week and 25F currently.6 points
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Just like that. Six consecutive highs below 50 and a good string of sub 40 mins. Top drawer stuff by recent January standards.6 points
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Just realized the GEM is the 12z run. Gorgeous run though.6 points
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The GEM is KOLD.6 points
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Better than sex
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For Washington and PDX, upon further inspection of the GFS...
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Nice view. This is the view up the hill behind my house just a hair above 2,000 feet this week. I can see North Bend and RattleSnake Ledge from here
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And whine we did. Reading back through those threads is pure gold6 points
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Keep whining. It worked for us in January 2019!6 points
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Thanks. It is fully remote so it is definitely giving me some tempting relocation ideas, but we'll see as I get more acclimated. SE AK would be fun. Ideal summer weather, long days and not hot!6 points
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I've noticed no matter the temperature or overall weather, your observations include "pleasant" if you're smoking.6 points
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Here is the 12z EPS for down here, continued uptrend in totals.
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@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV. Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...
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Front window view...
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12Z GEM is very cold at the end.6 points
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Backyard view this morning...
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Backloaded winter described.
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GFJDKSNEBRB!!!!!!!!!!!
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I think NYC is snowless on the season so far, I know they were when I was there NYE5 points
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Snyder mentioning wind now..
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A little lowland snow for tomorrow afternoon and evening is showing up on the Euro, too.
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The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.5 points
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6z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean with another nudge NW. Big totals in Oklahoma.5 points
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