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The Sierra had the biggest 24 hour May snow storm on record. That storm came in crazy strong.

Sticking!!

Just for kicks. I saw this in the new euro weekly control run. Whole run is windstorm dodgeball.

we might get near the elusive and record 80 burger tomorrow on 10/20. 76 forecast, also a record I think. had to turn the AC back on this evening cause the upstairs got warm today and it was 67 out

Throwback to 2 years ago when the GFS was spitting out crazy numbers for early November

I want that to be downtown Seattle

Wow im at .01. Incredible that you got DOUBLE my rain total despite our close proximity. The Puget Sound region is truly the land of microclimates.

Weather Channel winter outlook.

Safely stored, awaiting distribution

I’ll believe when I see it. It’s been so dry for months now. Also has turned into a warm start to fall.

Looks like we are in for a fun Nov. in terms of storms.

Meanwhile the sun is trying to come out here.

No, wife won't let me bring them inside lol.

Wow, this is a wet one! 3.87" storm total so far. Moderate rain and 50˚F at the moment.

1956 is the top analog again tonight. Let's just lock that in through March and enjoy the ride!

Great day to get one more round of golf in. Probably the last of the year.

Coquitlam reported 9.84" storm total as of an hour ago. Probably over 10" by now. Correction: 9.49". Transposed a few digits when converting from mm.

It's actually in Deep Cove, not West Vancouver. Both are part of the North Shore, a suburban area up against the mountains that gets significantly more rainfall than the city proper. I bet there are gauges there that are right now closing in on 10" storm total.

62 mph wind gust at Paine Field in Everett last night. Seriously impressive.

Throwback to 4 years ago when the GFS was spitting out some crazy solutions for October.

And there we are: 6.00".

Coquitlam in metro Vancouver area is near 8” of rain so far. Just over 30hrs into the event.

Shadow in full force.

The winter climo in ND and MN is so frigid that temperature anomalies really don't have much correlation with snow totals. Their snow totals pretty much depend on how much moisture they manage to get (and they have the opposite precip pattern from us - winter is their dry season).

This is incredible. About half an inch of additional rainfall in the last hour. 4.41" storm total and counting.

I was looking at my Facebook feed when I saw this photo. The caption read, "The Great North Dakota Blizzard of 1966." This would be an insane Blizzard

Incredible. Finally got some drizzle here, 0.01” on the day

In May we had heavy aurora borealis, and May was the most -PNA May on record, going back to 1948. The index was -2.74. There was never a year more positive than that value either. It was also more of a nowtime occurrence, as MR/LR models didn't have a huge -PNA earlier that month. Interesting that the same thing is happening later this month - the trend started on models after the flares. 2/2 doesn't make a point of significance, but it is something to watch for if we have another big solar spike going forward. We have also had 9 +NAO periods this year, when it was a total of 3 in the last 4 years.

Day 10 18z GEFS is a -PNA beauty.. really trended toward this over the last 3-4 days. I wonder if it's because the MJO is strong.

I do really enjoy the view and quiantness of this street. In clearer weather you can see down to downtown Victoria and the Olympic Mountains behind the oaks. Being in a Garry Oak grove also really brings out the seasons.

You know what's funny about that winter? I also remembered it being around average with frequent warmups... and it was, against the 1971-2000 averages that were in effect at that time. But running it against the current warmer 1991-2020 averages makes that winter cooler than average in the area.

Currently cloudy/windy and 56 degrees. .19” so far on the day, 2.87” for the month, 40.09” for the year. It was a slightly different story 2yrs ago today!

We still have a while to go, and we do not know how this winter will play out. Last winter Grand Rapids had its 2nd warmest December on record with a mean of 38.3 January had a mean of 27.1 and February had a mean of 35.4 good for the warmest February on record. The meteorological winter had a mean of 33.6. The winter season (October to April) only had 47.5” of snowfall with 31.3” of that falling in January with most of that falling in a two week period. Since 1950 all winters that had less than 50” of snowfall had more snowfall the next winter. So that is a good guess for this winter that more than 50” will fall. That said here is a list of winter weather Warnings and Advisories criteria. I will try to post this information again as we get closer tot the winter season. Winter weather related Warnings, Watches and Advisories are issued by your local National Weather Service office. Each office knows the local area and will issue Warnings, Watches or Advisories based on local criteria. For example, the amount of snow that triggers a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Northern Plains is typically much higher than the amount needed to trigger a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Southeast. Blizzard Warnings are issued for frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more. A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely, leading to whiteout conditions making travel extremely difficult. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle and wait for help to arrive. Winter Storm Warnings are issued for a significant winter weather event including snow, ice, sleet or blowing snow or a combination of these hazards. Travel will become difficult or impossible in some situations. Delay your travel plans until conditions improve. Ice Storm Warnings are usually issued for ice accumulation of around 1/4 inch or more. This amount of ice accumulation will make travel dangerous or impossible and likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches. Travel is strongly discouraged. Wind Chill Warnings are issued for a combination of very cold air and strong winds that will create dangerously low wind chill values. This level of wind chill will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Avoid going outdoors and wear warm protective clothing if you must venture outside. See the NWS Wind Chill Chart. Lake Effect Snow Warnings are issued when widespread or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy showers are expected to produce significant snowfall accumulation. Lake effect snow usually develops in narrow bands and impacts a limited area. These bands can produce very heavy snow with sudden restrictions in visibility. Driving conditions may become hazardous at times. And for advisories Winter Weather Advisories are issued when snow, blowing snow, ice, sleet, or a combination of these wintry elements is expected but conditions should not be hazardous enough to meet warning criteria. Be prepared for winter driving conditions and possible travel difficulties. Use caution when driving. Wind Chill Advisories are issued when low wind chill temperatures are expected but will not reach local warning criteria. Extremely cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chill readings. If you must venture outdoors, take precautions against frostbite and hypothermia. Lake Effect Snow Advisory are issued for widespread or localized lake effect snowfall accumulation (and blowing snow) remaining below warning criteria. Expects lake effect snow showers and assume travel will be difficult in some areas. Some localized snow bands will be intense enough to produce several inches in a few areas with sudden restrictions in visibility.

55-56 is probably the best PDO analog right now. This is why I say that they are probably using the PDO. October 1955 was the only year lower than this October. They also had a big +EPO in October, which models are showing in the long range right now We had a big -NAO Sept 19 - Oct 11 this year, so this is a good H5 match + a few weeks.

Have you guys seen how cold the CPC actually is in the Upper Midwest? Maybe Minneapolis being so anomalously warm last year will try to even out? They must really be expecting the WPO and EPO to go negative. I had this opinion several months ago, but not so much recently.

I’m out of town but looks like Shawnigan Lake has picked up about 1.5” of rain so far.

Been coming down at a good clip all afternoon/evening with the exception of 1-2 breaks that lasted about 5-10 minutes each. No idea how much we have gotten, but I'm guessing we have to be at least around 1" Looking at new weather stations, I think I've had my current station for about 7-8 years (maybe longer). When I last cleaned it, the plastic seemed to be getting a little brittle. Anybody have any experience with the haptic rain gauges and ultrasonic wind sensor stations? I'll probably stick with Ambient since I also have air quality, a few different temp sensors as well as a soil monitor all tied to that system. Trying to decide if I should just get the same sensor suite that I have or step up to the "new technology"

High was 82F today

Low of 57 tonight. High tomorrow 79. Sunny Sounds perfect!

I remember being mesmerized by the November 1990 Pineapple Express…I either didn’t pay enough attention to extended rainfall’s before that or we didn’t have one to that extent in the 80’s, but that 1990 event seem to go on without pause for days!

That much rain is actually kind of exciting. I remember feeling that in October 2003 when it rained about that much here.

It looks like it’s made its way around the South end of the Oly,s too.

5.92" Seeing some decent radar echoes over Port Angeles right now. So I presume our foothill friend is getting in on the rain at last.

I’m rooting for it.

Hurricane Oscar might be one of the biggest fails by the models. Pretty much all of them were showing it being a nothing burger but now it’s up to an 80mph Cat 1. Very small storm too so it has a chance to intensify more.

Just a few hours after the NHC initiated advisories, we now have Hurricane Oscar. This must be the shortest time ever between classification by the NHC and intensification to hurricane strength. It’s also incredibly tiny.

1956-57 sure fits the look the CPC is expecting this winter.

Crazy differences between the Euro and GFS for this weekend. GFS isn't very wet at all South of Skagit County while the Euro gives the Puget Sound region well over an inch of rain.