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    November 2021 Observations and Discussion

    Tom
    By Tom,

    I usually don't start a thread this early but this year will be different.  In many ways, this month is going to be an impactful one for much of our Nation.  I'm inclined to believe there will be several bouts of Severe Wx accompanied by the battle with Ol' Man Winter.  What is Nov '21 going to be remembered for?  Is Winter coming out of the gates early??  What will the holiday season look like?  This is the time of year when I personally start to enjoy tracking autumn/winter storms as our Sub comes together and members become more active.  I'm excited about what I see coming down the road for this month.  

     

    Alright, alright, alright...I've done enough digging/studying and deeply focusing on some intriguing data that continues to support the long standing idea for a big reversal heading into November.  All systems are ready to "GO" as we open up the door to Novembrrrrr....that's right, it's looking very likely that just as we open up the month, in a timely fashion, our seasons first big shot of early season cold is on the way.  Ya'll know how I enjoy seeing the wx line up to specific calendar dates.  Right on Cue, the entire North American 500mb flips a switch from Ridging across central/eastern Canada to what I foresee will be the next Long Term Long Wave trough of the developing LRC....Hudson Bay Vortex....

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    Well, this certainly flipped pretty quick...last 6 runs off the GEFS...opening week of November is going to FEEL cold after such a warm Oct.  As the fastest cooling month of the year opens up, temps also appear to follow suit and take a dive... 

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    0z EPS...

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    What about storms???  Oh boy, there are plenty on my calendar in what will be a series of systems coming out of the SW...aka "SW FLOW" where this years LRC's golden hot spot has set up.  Using the BSR as guidance, there is data to support the idea that during the week of the 7th, I'm seeing back-to-back southern stream systems coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region.  "Cutter Week Special" Round #2???  Just like in early Oct, in similar fashion, either this is another harmonic beat of the LRC or maybe a secondary active part of the entire cycle.  Nevertheless, the pattern setting up is eye candy and one that will keep us ALL busy tracking storm systems. 

    Storm Target Dates during Week 2 of Nov: 11/7-11/9, 11/11-11/13 (Veteran's Day Winter Storm?).  Doesn't it always seem like we are tracking some sort of system around Veteran's Day...iirc, someone's B Day is around that day also @james1976???  Anyway, we will prob seeing a winter component during this period.  Winter is likely to show itself in an abrupt fashion Week 2 of November.

    No joke, but it's like everything is lining up right as we enter November...I mean, you couldn't script this any other way....look at ALL the teleconnections from a variety of models...that is quite rare to see practically all of them flip in sync.  I'm amazed at what I see happening.  

     

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    Lastly, #ThinkSnow...I'm predicting that a number of places across the central CONUS have a good shot at breaking records.  It ain't just a mere fantasy, but a legit prediction that the overall pattern for this month will deliver bountiful chances of Snow.  No doubt about it.  The Euro Weeklies from Thursday illustrate a solid idea of whats coming down the road.  This is just before the beginning of the holiday season...once we get towards the middle/end of Nov, I think we'll see the cold press farther south and east.  I know this has been a long post but I had a lot on my mind....who's ready for tracking????  

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    Antarctic Winter ‘21 Low Temp In

    Andie
    By Andie,

    Posting this under weather not climate.  We’ll see if this is a trend and not an anomaly.  
     

    "For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9°C, a record for those months," according to the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC).


    Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

    Brennan
    By Brennan,

    Looking to restart up the topic of SST’s, with focus on PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and ENSO. I’ve been out of touch for several years and all my links to certain maps and websites don’t work anymore. Hoping to get some help!


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