It's been an interesting few days tracking this potential system as the models initially were flashing a wound up storm cutting NW and delivering a major storm but then lost it Day 5-7.   Suddenly, the models are now sniffing it back again in the medium range.  Over the years of tracking systems when a major pattern flip is under way, esp when we are dealing with the real deal surge of Arctic Air, the models have a difficult time figuring out waves along the thermal gradient.  With that being said, overnight guidance per the latest EPS has grown that a S stream energy will track along this arctic front up into the S MW/OHV.  This system has eyes for our KC/MO members into the Lower Lakes region and even possibly for our NE/IA members.  Let's discuss...

00z Euro Control...

yikes. 

though the brunt of the cold misses michigan this run, im assuming thats still a great signal for LES @Stacsh

The one month that hasn't betrayed us is afoot. Will February have our backs or will this be a messy breakup!?