Major winter storm today to bring 4-18 inches to IA/E MN/NW WI today and heavy rain/floods to the lower Great Lakes.

Please guys send some wintery photos or anyone dealing with heavy rain/floods some pictures and keep us updated with observations!

With the recent cooling trend in the models, it's looking like PDX (and possibly other PNW stations) have a shot at a top 5 cold February. 

PDX's top 5:

1956: 35.8

1989: 36.0

1950: 38.8

1949: 39.1

1969: 39.7

February 2014 so far: 38.2

Plugging in the numbers from Mark's 7-day (which is on the warm side of things right now), brings PDX to 39.7 by the 26th. 

If things trend cooler, which certainly seems possible, 2014 could find itself in the #5 spot.

We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014.

Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical pacific as the climate system begins a significant transition away from the 1998-2012 regime. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time.

As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate El Niño, probably either peaking early and/or featuring two peaks. I base this prediction on stratospheric, solar, and internal parameters..with the Sun/QBO coupling ultimately determining whether or not the upcoming ENSO warming during March/April/May will sustain or recoil into a chaotic mess.

This should be an interesting evolution, as the global circulatory network is now moving away from the dominating 1998-2012 regime.