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weatherfan2012

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Posts posted by weatherfan2012

  1. 5 hours ago, Phil said:

    Oh yeah I saw this torch coming a mile away. Should be one of the warmest Februaries on record here. Am still predicting we’ll hit mid/upper 70s at some point, and quite possibly challenge our all time record high for the month.

    Then March we will likey have our biggest snow event of the winter I can very much see that happening as well to add to the Joke of winter 2022-2023.I mean lets be honest this winter is about as comerica as it can get.

    • Like 1
  2. 2 minutes ago, Phil said:

    New EPS weeklies projecting a much more coherent MJO/intraseasonal component in the tropical circulation. Possibly driven by the demise of the PV/acceleration of the BDC.

    Also suggests the La Niña base state is/will be losing its grip on the system state evolution. Whether or not that actually happens is still TBD, obviously.

    C6C5573E-1187-43B1-A621-8C2D9C8C9080.jpeg

    This would be the classic winter where we get our biggest storm in March it just has that feel to it.

  3. 3 hours ago, Phil said:

    If there was a meaningful SSW on the horizon, you know I would be all over it, haha.

    There is nothing about the pattern going forward that will augment wave driving in a manner that will threaten the PV. It’s just not going to happen. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but some things are out of our control as wishcasters. 😞

    The one good thing is next winter can not get any worse as this is about as worse rock bottom as you can get.so we can only go up after this debacle over the next few years. 

    • Like 1
  4. 23 minutes ago, Phil said:

    We all make mistakes. At least a couple of my screwups are famous on here and will never leave me. 😂

    But alas, I think he is jumping the gun. There’s currently nothing to indicate an El Niño will develop in 2023.

    Now, the WPAC is certainly locked and loaded. Thermocline is very suppressed out there. If a strong MJO wave were to cross the dateline sometime in F/M/A, then suddenly an El Niño becomes more likely, if not probable.

    But present boundary conditions are working against that. The tropical circulation is thoroughly coupled to the La Niña event, and the +QBO/stable tropics are keeping a lid on the MJO.

    Agreed I think the truth is no matter how many ids one has mother nature will still kick you in the but at times and this winter has kicked many.Also it human nature to not like to be wrong and alot of times  we can be stubborn in admitting that we were wrong lol.I also think there is still many things in the climate system that we don't really know and it those unknowns alot of times that screws up forecasted ideas.which will then leave us saying yep back to the drawing board again ☺.I think with LC he been going by models which has clearly been rushing things with the enso and he adminted the delays of the models has frustrated him.I think your idea Phil is what makes the most sense a slower trainstion.

    • Like 3
  5. 22 minutes ago, Phil said:

    Who is doing that? The tropical circulation is as La Niña heavy as it’s been since last spring (and +QBO will try to keep it this way).

    Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season. 

    • Like 1
  6. 15 hours ago, Phil said:

    If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

    Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

    And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

    This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

    DE37A1E3-0390-4D16-B3AC-7000FE14A2C3.gif

    As good as a promet Larry Cosgrove is he really got burned by his consistent idea of La nina going away and El nino starting.I still wonder what he saw back in the summer and fall that made him go in that drection 🤔.He is still going with the El nino coming on this summer.

    • Like 1
  7. 2 hours ago, Phil said:

    You know it’s been a loser winter when a 20 second snow flurry grabs your attention. Haha.

    Literally the 3rd best snow “event” so far this winter here. :lol: I’ve got maybe 0.1” total from all 3 snow showers combined.

    Only other winters that were *this* bad (to date) in my lifetime are 1997/98, 2006/07, and 2012/13. Even 2011/12 had multiple accumulating snowfalls by now.

    Both 2006/07 and 2012/13 got better in Feb/Mar. 1997/98 was a suckfest all the way through, finished with < 1”. Hope to not repeat that.

    The truth promets need to call for a warmer less snower winter then we will get hammered as there calls for cold snowy winters have not been to good.

    • Like 1
  8. 28 minutes ago, Phil said:

    Yeah, though I’m not certain El Niño will develop this year. Could be a multiyear transition out of this La Niña and into El Niño. Analogous to the transitions from 2000/01-2002/03 and 1955/56-1957/58.

     Very possable it has to be frustrating to be a promet trying to sort this all out with models constantly showing El nino only to be delayed I think that's what burned Cosgrove he went with Data ending la nina to soon.

  9. 8 hours ago, Phil said:

    Easy to finish a winter with only ~ 4” total here. It’s always very feast or famine. But to my knowledge we’ve never had a truly “snowless” winter. At least not yet..I’m sure it’ll happen eventually.

    Believe it or not this upcoming pattern is the best “snow” pattern we’ve had so far this winter, even though it’s a warmer one. Just need a low to track in right spot without occluding, and it’ll snow.

    I also think febuary may surprise I don't think we are done with this winter despite the cancels group I have seen a few cases where we went from one extream to the other way for a few week's 

  10. 9 hours ago, Phil said:

    Euro/CMC made ugly moves today, looks more like a lakes cutter. Haven’t seen a single snowflake yet this winter, so I’m gonna be very salty if models don’t swing back to a coastal.

    Especially when Some like Larry Cosgrove has been so on board with the cold ice and snow threats those to be fair I get why he been on board but unfortunately when it fails in the end your be accused of over hyping when that was not the contention. It just gos to show no matter how great of a pro degreed met you our mother nature can and will kick your but and throw a cerve ball and humble you at times.I also think the models are having trouble determind the outcomed this I'm not sure I'm sold on any solution just yet need a few more days.

    • Like 3
  11. 5 hours ago, Phil said:

    Earliest freeze in decades here this AM. That 1988 analog is an interesting one, we’ve been following it to a tee since September.

    Only thing now is we’ve entered a subseasonal +AAM cycle which looks to stick around for at least a couple of weeks, possibly longer.

    78FDE83B-025A-4070-81F4-F9003D84E7B4.png

    Larry Cosgrove is  very bullish on  this winter he been talking about it  both on twitter and facebook 

    • Like 1
    • Excited 1
  12. 4 hours ago, Phil said:

    It looks like my grandmother is going to pass today. She fell & broke her hip/shoulder over the weekend, and never really recovered from the anesthesia post-surgery. Am really appreciating the value of family and human life today.

    Sorry to here that always keep those memories Phil she will continue to be with you inside your heart.It was hard when my Mom pass away a few years ago  very suddenly.

    • Like 2
  13. 6 hours ago, Phil said:

    I’m kind of afraid we’re blowing our load here in Sep/Oct, then come Nov/Dec things flip and I end up stuck under a giant ridge for 6 weeks.

    According to Larry Cosgrove he is very hype up about the November through febuary potential sure hope he on to something he has been very good with forecasting as of late.

    • Like 1
  14. 6 hours ago, Phil said:

    I don’t think that’s a given just yet. Will depend on wind forcing over the Indo-Pacific (IE: any WWBs and resulting downwelling OKWs).

    That why I think over the summer Larry Cosgrove was so against the La nina talk He was clearly going by the Data and was not going by what was going on in real time which is surpising as he is normally pro on real time stuff then Data.He has sifted his stance that this La nina is not acting typical.Dispite the enso difference idea wise  He has been nailing the pattern. 

    • Like 1
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