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weatherfan2012

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Posts posted by weatherfan2012

  1. 5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

    An anomalous year would be a Niña that behaves as a Niño. 

    He's good at what he does. 

    Would have to go back maybe to 2013(?) I think to see a dearth in Atl tropical activity.

    Its just that he's one who forecasted a Niño if i recall. There's still too much cold water in the S. PAC feeding this along with atmospheric reinforcement.

     

    Yeah I'm not sure why he went with the nino with little to no support could be that he was following data that was hinting at it dissipating.another thing to and Dave Tolleris WxRisk.com is even worse in this regard they don't like to admint they were wrong on there ideas it seems to ofton they go with there ideas and there stubborn to change or acceap.which is human nature we are not great in accaping defeat.I think mostly because we want to beleave we have all the answers when in fact there still so much we really don't know and it hard to accept at times.this is a strange enso set up maybe a hard year for  winter outlooks giving the complexities of it this year and I really don't think models Data have a good handel on it which adds insult to injury.

    • Like 1
  2. On 9/3/2022 at 5:53 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

    So, chances are rapidly increasing that we do not actually flip the La Niña. If this happens, will be hard to call a snowy winter for many.

    Thoughts?

    Hard to believe its technically fall after having a mini-drought and dead yard all season 

    Larry Cosgrove seems excited about the winter hopefully his streak keeps up as he done pretty good this summer and good in seeing the less active season tropical wise even those he was going for average he was way more right then the majority this season.

    • Like 1
  3. 5 hours ago, Phil said:

    FWIW the enhanced warming in the arctic is confined to the autumn and winter, not during the summer when albedo feedback would be realized directly. That explanation by UCAR is lacking context.

    The truth is “arctic enhancement” is largely driven by a combination of latent heat release from re-freezing open water in the autumn/early winter, as well the modern day circulation (+TNH/+NAM) greatly enhancing WAA into the high arctic during the cold season.

    We’ve seen during the (brief) excursions into -NAO in recent years that WAA into CAB/high arctic is greatly reduced, with northerly winds/CAA dominating the NATL. If we could somehow establish -NAO/-PNA type circulation as the dominant winter pattern, the arctic ice pack would absolutely recover, possibly to a significant extent, as we saw in the 1960s/70s.

    Agreed spot on here.

    • Thanks 1
  4. 6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

    We'll see if it actually happens in this case.  No sign of it yet according to global temp anoms vs the last couple of years.  Regardless of what people say there was more than just water vapor put into the air from that volcano.  Certain a lot of salts went up there as well.  The bottom line is....we don't know in this case.

    The truth is get 20 people in the room your get a different opinion anwer from all of them.

    • Like 3
  5. 5 hours ago, Phil said:

    Nice write-up there.

    Only qualm I have is 1999/00 and 2000/01 were left out of the analog pool. Crazy to exclude those in favor of weak sauce niña winters like 2005/06 and 2016/17.

    Larry Cosgrove is hype up about the fall winter  and he not one that tends to talk in strong terms very much.no doubt it been a unusal pattern.It will prove interisting to see what happens.I got to give Cosgrove some due for going against the high end hurricane forecasts he was one of the lowest out there.Ironically even he may be to high.And his summer forecasts was spot on as well.

    • Excited 1
  6. 13 hours ago, Phil said:

    Lol. I fully expect a nuclear blowtorch out here until proven otherwise. Especially during the autumn months. 

    Larry Cosgrove is also hype up about the fall and winter so it will be interesting to see what happens dispite the mass disagreement between Larry and others his summer forecasts has been one of the most accurate that was made.Not sure what that means going for word 🤔 but will be interesting to see if he continues to be right despite it not making any since lol.It could be that he more of a old school type then a new school.Not to offend Larry but I think he stays in the old school ways to much and does not  give the newer forecasting enough credit but it is his right and it is fair enough.We are all stuck in our own  ways at something in life.it is not easy to  accept change.

    • Like 1
  7. 6 hours ago, Phil said:

    Dewpoint back home reached 81.3°F today with a high of 96°F. 🤮 

    Looks like DCA just gusted to 58mph. That storm just collapsed and put out a gust front.

    What started off as a amazingly borning severe thunderstorm season has literally turned into one of the best summer thunderstorm patterns in a long while in this resgion

    • Like 3
  8. 4 hours ago, Phil said:

    Interesting how MJO teleconnections to middle latitudes change even from week to week.

    Looking at phase-1/phase-2 in early/mid August, the signal across the CONUS is quite warm. And grows warmer from phase-1 into phase-2. In fact it’s one of the warmest signals in the database. 😶

    Week 31/32 (Aug 9-19) for phases 1-2, respectively.

    9F8F9FCE-381F-4FB0-B31D-36F41D7CBEE1.pngB34CE12E-29F7-4922-872D-3010CE0371CD.pngF0501076-6057-4AA2-8C7F-8F17E4731758.png10E4A983-CEDD-4D30-B775-88196C217DA0.png

    Completely oppersite to that of winter where phases 8 throught 2 support cold stormey patterns in summer it favers hot amazing how these things can mean different things in each season.

    • Like 1
  9. 1 hour ago, Phil said:

    Everyone makes mistakes.

    Forecasting long range weather/climate is basically knowing you’re going to be wrong, but if you keep your ratio of wrongness inside the boundaries of predictiveness it’s a win.

    I reached the acceptance phase on this awhile back. Every now and then I’ll learn a new trick but for the most part it’s pattern recognition and luck, with a guarantee of being wrong at least 30% of the time.

    So true

  10. 10 minutes ago, Phil said:

    Wanted to finish staining the deck before leaving town on 7/30 but this heat is keeping me from working during the midday and afternoon hours.

    Tomorrow could make a run at 100°F.

    You knew are luck had to change sooner or later as it was over all a good pattern for us until very recently texas is now sharing in on there woes in terms of heat.

  11. 20 minutes ago, Phil said:

    I can’t believe this is still going so strong. Exceeding even my expectations.

    No summer in the satellite era (and possibly since WWII) has seen trade winds like this. Really is unprecedented.

    DBC0EE6A-B49C-4891-8062-6F407E98FB22.png

    Maybe that why Larry Cosgrove is in such denial it has cought everyone completely off guard that perhaps he doesn't want to admint he was wrong on this.besides that I can't understand  why he not seeing what everyone else is.seems strange to me 🤔.No harm to the guy just a bit confusing that all.

    • Like 1
  12. 7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

    Excited for the east coast?  Is he still predicting a Nino?

    If you can beleave it yes he says the La nina talk is BS lol your have to ask him why he is so gun ho on weak El nino on his face book page or Twitter and so against the La nina.Im sure many are wanting to know his answer to that especially giving he one of the major old school pro mets out there.

  13. 3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

    Looks like this year has the largest sea ice area at this point in the Arctic since 2009. And it's not too far behind 2008/2009 at that, with a favorable looking pattern for the next couple weeks.

    Would be really nice to see this year finish with the highest summer extent since before the big dropoff in 2007.

    Larry Cosgrove is pretty excited about the potential this  winter he has been talking about it some on his facebook page and weather America each weekend,

  14. 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

    No way he is going to be right IMO.  There is absolutely no historical precedent for a Nino to come out of thin air this late.

    I remembered back in the day Jim when Dave Tolleris and Larry Cosgrove got into it all the time those two could never agree on much of anything.I tend to agree with you but I still find it interesting that Cosgrove sees it so differently wish And I'm sure many knew what exackly it is that he seeing.

  15. 1 hour ago, Phil said:

    Going to be a hefty La Niña this winter.

    Westward moving +OLR/-VP200 low pass with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle is the best possible setup to strengthen La Niña.

    The CFS doesn’t even simulate a QBO. It’s such a dinosaur.

    Larry Cosgrove continues to be against it for some reason.I guess my question is.Is he just being different just to be different or is he really seeing something that many do not.Strange that a great old school promet like Larry would be this far off the mark seeing wise 🤔

    • Popcorn 1
  16. 3 hours ago, Phil said:

    Looks like a bust here today. Lots of crapvection and cloud cover. If anything interesting happens it’ll have to be a nocturnal MCS or some late development along the subsequent shortwave.

    Muggy and cloudy, low 80s with dews in the mid-70s.

    Edit: Upper 70s dewpoints now. Instant sweat drippage.

      Decent storms formed afterall some heavey rainers and even a tornado warning in south A.A county.O wow someone saw a possable spin up apparently.

    • Like 1
  17. 1 hour ago, Phil said:

    Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

    Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

    WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

    Some major close lighting strikes as well with some of the storms

    • Like 1
  18. 7 hours ago, Phil said:

    No they don’t. La Niña odds actually increase heading into fall/winter.

    AEF89353-F4A0-4EB9-BA1C-38A493B88C6C.jpeg

    We all ready Got Cosgrove against La nina so let's not have cpc against it eather.Larry is a good met very good just don't know what he seeing but strange things can and do happen.

  19. 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

    The extended heat the GFS is showing won't verify. But things will grow unseasonably warm quickly. I hope to god it doesn't last. Because if a -ENSO background state like this doesn't produce a cold summer, then what the hell will anymore?

    If you asked Larry Cosgrove he would say the La nina is weaking and going warm neutral possbly weak El nino this fall What he seeing your have to ask him on his facebook page.

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