weatherfan2012

I agree im not convinced we are headed for a super El nino I think moderate is a much better likey hood.

I agree geos caution must be use next week.the models last week showed monday storm being a major hit in the northeast and it ended being a moderate at best storm for va and md in other words models are having trouble dispicking this pattern.i would wrait until early next week to see how the pattern is lineing up with reality.

I can't beleave how fast the hole process of this storm has changed to just a day or so ago.just a slight ajustment of the pv was all it took amazeing.

I wonder what effect a cold AMO with a low solar cyle would have on the NAO would it tend to be negatve ad low solar cycles seem to faver or a positive nao.

Phil Robert Filex has message a few times in the past on iceagenow that past ice ages have behaved alot like El ninos tropical forceing wise would be interesting seeing your thoughts on this.

this has been a long cold winter for most of the nation so it was good to get some warmth.those it makes me wonder the winters starting around 2017 if you are right we maybe in for severe winters nation wide depending what the next few solar cycles do.

yeah have it seen phil post In about 4 days or so hope everything is ok.Tony Pan from wbal owes Justin burke lunch as much of md west of the bay got a foot or more of snow from this storm with even higher amounts north and west of i95 impressive storm to say the least.the mixing lull was expected 95 east and south va md and pa so not a surpise on the mixing outcomed.the sort term models really did well with this storm.Part three is now bearing down part 1 the big thumb snows this morning part 2 the mixing and lull from 8 to early this afternoon and now the back side comma head ull part three.I95 and east in MD/PA geting crushed over the next few hours.

would like to see any reports from any East coast posters that is being effected by this historic storm that is effecting the entire Eastern seaboard.

looks winter maybe going out with a bang wenesday night and thrusday if models are to be beleaved.

Agreed it way to soon to worry about next fall and winter.Alot of times it depends where the El nino sets up.If the El nino is a east to center base it tends to be warmer then normal.But if it sets up as a center to west basen event the winters tend to be cold and very snowey.I'm glad the pattern is breaking.Like Phil said this winter seem to take alot of engery out of alot of people.

none of the models have been handling the patterns to well as of late which is tpical of these split flow patterns.and right before pattern changes as well.

Geos how do you see the El nino that is likey to be forming late this summer and doing fall Phil has been stateing its likey it going to be an unusal forming El nino.Reather or not its a west to centel base one or a centel to east base is very much unclear at this point in time.next winter would likey see us past the solar max and likey the start of the deep fall I would suspect.You and Phil both did great on your forecasts this winter.Was it an easy one to pin down with the many regem changes and lack of singels any where this winter.So really had to look hard and deep to forecast this one.

yeah the pacific ssts have not been any where close to an el nino look this year as you said it been dead neuture the past 2 years.which had been a great enso call by you.

this winter has turned out to be 1981-82 all over again.Larry cosgrove went with this analog back in the fall.81-82 saw the very cold january but then the pattern tottly broke down in febuary very much like what we have seen this winter progessen wise.the Nao was also postive in the means that winter but had the negative epo december and january.81-82 pretty good match for winter of 2013-14

this was one of the things I think Phil was warning about as well that a change in the pattern that was giving us the -epo could mess up the great pattern cold snow wise it appearls Phils concern maybe verifing here.

hope he feels better soon phil.sorry to here that.

the models are having a really differcult time handeling this pattern it will be interisting to see where this gos mid to late february and March.another question is the AO how do you see that playing out.one thing is clear we are going into a new pattern for the nation.

phil are you still thinking the AO is going to trend to be more negative the data seems as Geos pointed out seems to be going for a +AO mid february

I agree with you tom a lot of things still on the table yet and questions that has to be looked at in the next week or show.mother nature always has the final say no matter the forecast and sometimes can throw creveballs at you.

Yeah Larry tends to posts his thoughts on his facebook page.He thinks everyone is ingoreing the warm up that is taking place starting february 13.Alot of people are giving him heart burn about his idea but his idea could be just as right as everyone in the end.Can't dismissed a forecasts that has it happen yet.

Agreed analogs 81-82 93-94 78-79 61-62 have all been decent for this winter.Larry Cosgrove tends to think the pattern breaks down february 13 and becomes a zonal flow so there is some debate of when the pattern breaks down.

phil what your thoughts on when the pattern breaks down.Larry cosgrove thinks the -Ao breaks down after febuary 13 or so and we go into a zonal flow for most sounds like he going with the 77 and 82 analogs as he has all winter.

81-82 which has been larrys analog behaved a lot like this.

which way did the ecmwf go.