WeatherNerd

While the graphic is hard too see the US I have an image of the 500 mb pattern for the Beijing climate model for the winter. Very similar to the Euro and JMA http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/Prediction/CS2gen/20180901/C_GH500_20181201_M03_GL.png

I'm actually leaning towards a basin wide El nino less of a traditional modoki. the warmest in the center. I found that 2009 had a basin wide el nino and Interestingly enough that winter had almost Identical impacts to a modoki. though thats just one year. What are your thoughts on this?

Getting closer to winter If i'm correct this is the first winter storm warning of the season

If the MJO goes into phase 2 after October 15th this pattern would be supported. Though if it stays in phase 1 October won't have too much of a pattern change.

The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid october

My bad for the misspelling but I think that your area will see the worst of the winter in December and because the lakes havn’t Frozen over yet you could see active lake effect snow systems. Though It won’t be as brutal as last year if it was even really brutal. By the end of the winter you could see near normal to slightly above average this snow this year and lots of cold though warming up into 2019.

However The later run shows Dcember lining up almost exactly to how I think December will play out. Also interesting to see that in February. Interesting to see how that plays out. The model definitely takes it as a negative NAO ceartainly not a bad run but still stubbornly underestimates the strength of the Aleutian low which if that were to come into play would show the forecast more troughier than it actually is. On the other hand let’s hope the Euro keeps It’s Idea with the troughing and doesn’t change too much or better yet gets cooler. I’m still sceptical of a start early winter. I think the USA would really see anything major until 2019 rools around though winter extending into March isn’t out of the question.

The latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts?

GFS Showing lots of snow in the Dakotas, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana for the next 10 days. I expect this pattern to go on until at least November

So glad you enjoyed my outlook. So exited for the Cansip model and Euro to come out tomorrow. Hopefully the CanSip decides to go back to what it was showing last month to support my point and the Euro keeps staying bullish.

I created A winter outlook I wanted to share but the forum said that I couldn't use that image extension on the community so I created a google website for It based on my opinions https://sites.google.com/view/winter-outlook/home

I believe either the Midwest or southeast is going to get the winters worst. If we get the stubborn southeast ridge to continue us folks in NC could end up being blocked from the arctic air and the Midwest would be in the sweet spot. Though if we see the ridge diminish and a trough develop over the mid Atlantic into Texas the NAO could win over and we would be talking about a heck of a winter.

Just going off a theory from Jaster that the cooler air would be shifted inland due to the shift of the warm pool of water/temps. Though I should rephrase that It shouldn’t really affect blocking more so the temperatures or at least the warmth in the north. Though I do see your point that the mid latitude blocking has nothing to do with the Modoki since there have been years without it and still having similar patterns.

While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=213 http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/213_4.jpg

@OKwx2k4 I just saw the latest GFS run to show some mixed precip on OK from a potential Arizona hurricane about 300 hours out nonetheless that run thinks you guys will be -20 degress below average getting into the mid 30's during mid from that run October. I've seen a trend that central plains are going to be nailed with cold air next month.

I cringe when I see weather enthusiasts look at the CFSv2 12 run ensemble off of tropical tidbits and say It's going to be a warm winter without paying attention to anything else besides maybe the ENSO. Then they look at the jamstec and NAVGEM which are the only warm models. And then make a forecast saying that the USA is going to be really hot this winter. Then the average human Is caught off guard during the winter because their favorite meteorologist on youtube said it was going to be warm. Though that's just me and I don't like a warm winter

Plus with the blocking which the Farmers almanac doesn't take into account would be very strong. So if the Jet stream dipped far south as say Texas Michigan would be nailed with cold air.

Luckily SST currently support a positive NAO and models don't really think the NAO will be really too negative in December. So I think up until 2019 you guys could get the winters worst for the remainder of this year.

Interesting to see 2009 2010 had the lowest snow cover and we all know how cold that winter was. It's also interesting to see it being as one of my analogs.

Though the CFS and Euro showing it turn negative by winter.

I took a look at the NAO for October and the models have backed off on it being negitive Next month.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

If we get the blocking it wouldn't matter too much because too much because if we get a lot of Blocking for instance -EPO would be a bigger impact than the snow cover . Plus If we get a bigger snow cover Temperatures could be colder in Canada therefore bringing colder air into the USA.