Omegaraptor

Sounds like that could have been a deformation zone event. I’ve already talked about the July 18, 1987 deformation zone which caused many places from central OR to far north CA to have their coldest summer day on record.

Sunny now. Clouds have mostly lifted in just 15 minutes or so.

Sunny already? We've been socked in rather frequently this summer so far.

Clouds finally starting to go away. We might actually hit our forecasted high today.

I wonder how often a true "year without a summer" like 1954 actually happens. Once every 100 years maybe?

Yeah 93-94 was an awful winter. No rain until December, January was a torch, and most arctic air events had no precipitation. Except for the late February one (backloaded because why wouldn't it be) that dumped 2 slushy inches at PDX which immediately melted with the 1.9" of rain that fell that day. 92-93 was great though.

This was a joke post from Phil a long time ago... maybe not so much of a joke anymore.

Will the upcoming rain be drizzle or heavy?

Summers have always been dry. In fact, some climate classifications consider the PNW “Mediterranean” because of the wet winter dry summer pattern.

Between the ensembles, models, and forcing moving back into the EHEM later in the month (unless Phil is wrong about that one) I doubt we will get out of this cool to downright chilly weather pattern anytime soon. This July’s average high could resemble 2011 or even 1983 once everything is said and done.

If the forecast actually verifies (as in, not underperforming) and we get some decent thunderstorms, I wouldn’t mind the upcoming pattern at all.

Just because you dislike warmth and sunshine doesn’t mean everyone else has to. July is naturally supposed to be warm and sunny, because, as you might know, it’s summer, but this one hasn’t been so far and doesn’t look to be anytime soon.

I’m a heat miser for wanting average summer weather (which is supposed to be warm, by the way) and sun. Okay then. I don’t even want heat. Lol. Yet you can keep complaining about your summer weather here, which doesn’t even pertain to us because you live on the other side of the country. Yet I never say anything about it.

Average high for the month now is 74.1°F at PDX - 4°F below normal so far. Several days on the GFS are set to fail to break 70, and most days are underperforming. Today’s high was 68°F - 11°F below normal. All I want at this point is average summer weather, but it seems like we won’t be getting much of that this month.

00z GFS is an improvement over the 12 and 18. If it thunderstorms on July 14th I won’t mind the chilliness. Who knows though, models have been variable.

We're actually close to our monthly average already. At least PDX is. Hillsboro isn't, and my house sure isn't. We got maybe 0.05" on 7/1. Would be interesting to see PDX break an inch for July. When was the last time we broke an inch in July or August?

There very much were peeps from me. If you remember the 89ºF on 5/10, I was one of the few people here actually interested and trying to forecast it. Today underperformed quite a bit given the forecast high of 71ºF or so. I wasn't even expecting it to be this cool.

High at PDX currently 67. 12°F below normal. Feels more like May than July.

Now the real question - have the Februaries of the 2010s been unusually cold, or were the Februaries of the 2000s unusually warm? Looking at Portland’s temperature history, February seems to have fluctuated quite a bit. Looking at airport average high temps since the 1940s, the five months that haven’t clearly trended warmer are Feb, June, Oct, Nov, and Dec. Those months have just kind of fluctuated. January average high jumped from 45.8°F in the 71-00 period to 47.0°F in the 81-10 period which is pretty sharp. I can also use XM-ACIS to see 1990-2019 stats. February has dropped pretty hard in recent years. 50.6°F average which is well down from the 51.3°F in the 81-10 stats.

Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example.

Not a trace of blue sky here. 65 at PDX, 66 at HIO. Yeah, “summer” it is all right.

Nature doesn’t work that way. We’re not due anything. If we were, we would have had a cool summer a long time ago.

Didn’t he at some point say that there would be a week or two of 2011-like weather at some point in July? Maybe this is it.

On the other hand, we have this thing in the NE Pacific.

I bet you're all sick of seeing pessimistic posts from me about winter, so I'm going to say something a bit more optimistic. The floundering Niño is more encouraging when you realize that many of the best years for mountain snow are first year Niñas (although some like 71-72 are second year Niñas). Good first year Niñas include 73-74, 98-99, 10-11, and 16-17. The best case scenario is that the Niño continues to die and that we enter -ENSO before winter starts. Hoping that we make up for the dry last two years with a full-on wet winter + high snowpack year like 98-99 or 16-17. Not saying this is probable or even likely, but it is encouraging to think about.